Pickering Airport (Transport Canada/GTAA, Proposed)

[kEiThZ]

Swoop seems to be establishing itself using Hamilton as a hub. It's a common transfer point for northwest to southeast travel.

Nothing stops them from adding service to Pickering or even moving to Pickering entirely. I think they’d consider some kind of ops at Pickering. The convenience to the 416 would be hard to ignore.

 

[MarkBrooks]

So, you mean Bearskin, Air Creebec, Air Georgian, etc?

Seriously, name me airlines not currently flying to Pearson or the Island that would fly there.

Why not show the overlap of all airports running scheduled service within a 2 hour drive of Pearson. Let's then look at the current passengers that are outside of the overlap of Pearson that would be "new" customers.

Those airlines that you mentioned would be welcome but are not expected to be the airports main users. It is 10 years out ( yes it will take that long to build) so any airline scenario is very speculative, beyond any business cases an airline would have in place. Even if they are planning that far ahead, none of them ever reveal core business plans.

But I can speculate ( totally unrelated to these airlines )

My informed speculation on the first tenants of the airport is this:.

The main users will come from the fallout of Toronto’s big squeeze. First to hit the wall will be city center ( 2024) then Pearson ( 2027-2030) runs out of all weather slots. The capacity of both Pickering to the east and Hamilton to the west needs to be ready for these users.

I am sure you can name the island users, but Pearson squeeze will pop some interesting point to point players over to Pickering. The discount point to point airlines not owned by air Canada or westjet is a longer list than you might think.

For obvious reasons will not call them out by name but finding an anchor tenant in each of the categories is not an issue.

All will be competition for Air Canada on both local and international routes, so they would be foolish not to then shift some flights to Pickering to compete for prime time slots.
One simply has to look at the traffic squeezed.

Here is the timeframe for the squeeze at Billy Bishop out of its latest masterplan:

 

[micheal_can]

Those airlines that you mentioned would be welcome but are not expected to be the airports main users. It is 10 years out ( yes it will take that long to build) so any airline scenario is very speculative, beyond any business cases an airline would have in place. Even if they are planning that far ahead, none of them ever reveal core business plans.

But I can speculate ( totally unrelated to these airlines )

My informed speculation on the first tenants of the airport is this:.

The main users will come from the fallout of Toronto’s big squeeze. First to hit the wall will be city center ( 2024) then Pearson ( 2027-2030) runs out of all weather slots. The capacity of both Pickering to the east and Hamilton to the west needs to be ready for these users.

I am sure you can name the island users, but Pearson squeeze will pop some interesting point to point players over to Pickering. The discount point to point airlines not owned by air Canada or westjet is a longer list than you might think.

For obvious reasons will not call them out by name but finding an anchor tenant in each of the categories is not an issue.

All will be competition for Air Canada on both local and international routes, so they would be foolish not to then shift some flights to Pickering to compete for prime time slots.
One simply has to look at the traffic squeezed.

Here is the timeframe for the squeeze at Billy Bishop out of its latest masterplan:
View attachment 198547

So, in short, we have no single airline screaming for a new airport.

 

[MarkBrooks]

So, in short, we have no single airline screaming for a new airport.

Yes, we most certainly do, see Billy Bishop hitting the wall in less than 5 years, how much more explicit does this need to be?

 

[micheal_can]

Yes, we most certainly do, see Billy Bishop hitting the wall in less than 5 years, how much more explicit does this need to be?

So, this is a relief for Billy Bishop, not Pearson?

 

[MarkBrooks]

So, this is a relief for Billy Bishop, not Pearson?

Both, bishop hits the wall first, Pearson second.

Pearson is now listed by ICAO as a level 3 fully congested airport, but addition slots are still available on off peak hours. Here is the slot capacity from the current GTAA masterplan. Note that adding 18 more slots per hour is a paper exercise and is weather dependent.

You can see why we need to get going on additional capacity. Air Canada is the elephant in the room but, they are anchored at Pearson and will continue to grow their hub business there. As Pearson capacity issues grow, non-AC parties will be encouraged to curtail their growth and move to other regional airports like Hamilton or Pickering.

 

[micheal_can]

Both, bishop hits the wall first, Pearson second.

Pearson is now listed by ICAO as a level 3 fully congested airport, but addition slots are still available on off peak hours. Here is the slot capacity from the current GTAA masterplan. Note that adding 18 more slots per hour is a paper exercise and is weather dependent.

You can see why we need to get going on additional capacity. Air Canada is the elephant in the room but, they are anchored at Pearson and will continue to grow their hub business there. As Pearson capacity issues grow, non-AC parties will be encouraged to curtail their growth and move to other regional airports like Hamilton or Pickering.

View attachment 198642

What about Hamilton? When will it hit it's "wall"?

 

[MarkBrooks]

What about Hamilton? When will it hit it's "wall"?

That’s an odd comment. Hamilton will take the overflow demand from the western Toronto region, Pickering will take the overflow demand from the eastern part of the region. This is expected to be the loins share given its more central east location.

 

[micheal_can]

That’s an odd comment. Hamilton will take the overflow demand from the western Toronto region, Pickering will take the overflow demand from the eastern part of the region. This is expected to be the loins share given its more central east location.

How is it odd? You list 2 airports that exist. I am asking about a 3rd one that also currently exists. Pickering does not exist. So, playing a game of "what if?", what if no new airport is ever built. How long until Hamilton hits the wall you refer to?

 

[MarkBrooks]

How is it odd? You list 2 airports that exist. I am asking about a 3rd one that also currently exists. Pickering does not exist. So, playing a game of "what if?", what if no new airport is ever built. How long until Hamilton hits the wall you refer to?

St Catherines, Buffalo, Hamilton, Waterloo, london, Peterborough, all these airports have Capacity, as long as you don’t mind investing billions airside and driving for two or three hours. But none of these airports are able to provide accessibility capacity to the residents of the eastern GTA.

 

[micheal_can]

St Catherines, Buffalo, Hamilton, Waterloo, london, Peterborough, all these airports have Capacity, as long as you don’t mind investing billions airside and driving for two or three hours. But none of these airports are able to provide accessibility capacity to the residents of the eastern GTA.

So, you are just going to ignore my valid question as it does not fit with your narrative?

 

[MarkBrooks]

So, you are just going to ignore my valid question as it does not fit with your narrative?

I thought that answer was very clear, all those airports have capacity or can have with an appropriate investment, they are just to far away to matter. It’s about providing services to the residents of eastern Toronto, not forcing these citizens to move to Hamilton or do some off the wall commute.

 

[micheal_can]

I thought that answer was very clear, all those airports have capacity or can have with an appropriate investment, they are just to far away to matter. It’s about providing services to the residents of eastern Toronto, not forcing these citizens to move to Hamilton or do some off the wall commute.

Hamilton is not too far away. In fact, with it already existing, the infrastructure needed could be brought online quicker than a new airport could be built.

So, with it's current configuration, when will Hamilton's airport be at capacity?

 

[MarkBrooks]

Hamilton is not too far away. In fact, with it already existing, the infrastructure needed could be brought online quicker than a new airport could be built.

So, with it's current configuration, when will Hamilton's airport be at capacity?

Hamilton as 3 key limits, no rail, no jet A pipeline, and a location on the other side of Hamilton and the escarpment. These have been discussed before on this forum and could be partly fixed by Political will power and a billion dollar investment.

Even with these limits, Hamilton can provide capacity for the western part of Toronto once the big squeeze takes hold at Pearson but unless things change politically fuel and location limits are not going away and will always make second fiddle to Pickering..

One of the reasons why I am using the term “ The wall” is that each airport has different limitations. At city center the 6 - 8 fuel trucks loads a day being ferried over, plus the short regional routes and the Q400s ability to tanker fuel are enough to remove fuel as an limiting factor. its limits are runway length / capacity and the daily noise abatement limits.

Hamilton’s fuel must be trucked in. Unlike Pearson and Pickering it does not have access to rail or a pipeline. Pearson burns 100+ truck loads of fuel a day but luckily it has a pipeline for jet A coming in directly from the westover terminal. Extending a pipeline to Hamilton could be done if the political will could be found but it would be a tough fight, including expropriation of homes and businesses and the acceptance of a new pipeline right of way by local residents.

The same pipeline that feeds Pearson goes right past Pickering today. Pearson also uses rail to feed a secondary fuel farm. Pickering will do the same.

 

[muller877]

Hamilton is not too far away. In fact, with it already existing, the infrastructure needed could be brought online quicker than a new airport could be built.

So, with it's current configuration, when will Hamilton's airport be at capacity?

From Pickering YHM is 1:40-2:30 driving time. YYZ is 1:00-1:30. Uber it's $200 vs $100. It's too far.

When I look at the 401 corridor (expanded a bit) we have international medium sized (or larger) airports in Detroit, Windsor, London, KW, Hamilton, YYZ, Toronto Island and then nothing to Ottawa (Kingston only has flights to Toronto).

SWO is covered for all towns. Chatham is one of the furthest away at 1-1.5 hours away from Detroit & London.

If we use that 1.5 hour gap for a reasonable distance, Oshawa to Peterborough is the only area not covered by any local airport. A glaring gap in the airport infrastructure.

This is a great issue for a politician. Promise a local airport where you can go to Cancun or Calgary without a $100 trip fighting 401 traffic and a lot of blue collar voters will come your way. Plus all the spin-off jobs for those auto workers who are losing their jobs.