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Peak Oil Planning

R

RKudlac

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Daniel Lerch, author of "Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty" (www.postcarboncities.net) will be speaking at Post Carbon Toronto's next public meeting:

When: Nov. 14, 7:30-9:30
Where: Metro Hall
Metro Hall
55 John Street, Room 304
Toronto , ON M5V 3C6
http://oilawareness.meetup.com/70/calendar/6611720/
Please RSVP.

Peak Oil Primer: http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

Recent Articles:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,2196422,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=environment

Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study

· Output peaked in 2006 and will fall [3]% a year
· Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20071108.ROIL08/TPStory/?query=slippery+slope

The slippery slope of rising oil prices
The next energy shock will be different than the last one, but that doesn't mean it will be easy
DAVID PARKINSON

Nov 8 2007
 
Everyone likes to feel that they're part of a special time in history. In this case, we're in the midst of peak oil, and the world will be forced to change, blaa, blaa...

There's still plenty of oil out there, and besides, once its all gone, we'll find something else to burn....maybe koala bears ;)
 
oil companies profit from peak oil hysteria. if it's true, hopefully craig venter will patent some hydrogen fartin' bacteria farms by then. :)
 
Should everyone be "peak oil planning" before going out and about?


What's to be done with all that hydrogen after the those bacteria fart it out? Is that the "out" part in out and about?


So many questions; so little time.
 
Well, oil's a finite resource so its production has got to peak sometime. Of course there's lots of oil out there. That's not what this is about. There's still loads of a commodity left in the ground when its production peaks.
 
unimaginative2 said:
Well, oil's a finite resource so its production has got to peak sometime. Of course there's lots of oil out there. That's not what this is about. There's still loads of a commodity left in the ground when its production peaks.
Click to expand...
And what that happens, we'll find something else to burn, or simply change our way of doing things.
 
unimaginative2 said:
Will we now? And if it's starting to run out right now? What will we burn? What will we change?
Click to expand...
Well, if we ran out of oil, I imagine we'd stop burning oil, because there wouldn't be any oil left to burn, because we'd ran out of oil, forcing us to stop burning oil. Can I make it any simpler? Perhaps we'll switch to electric power for cars, planes and trains, with nuclear plants everywhere, with a greater look at the thus far hypothetical world of nuclear fusion power sources.

I'm tired of these doomsday scenarios where the modern world collapses due to a lack of oil. The Romans, Chinese and later the pre-Industrial Revolution British built global empires built on commerce, trade and military prowess all without oil or natural gas, nor wide access to coal. For example, the Roman Empire's primary fuel source for almost everything was wood and charcoal, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_during_the_Roman_period

The memonites near my office in Kitchener all seem to be living good lives without oil usage. Not that I want to don black garb all day, but life can be lived after the oil is gone.

One of best things about the end of oil will be that the west will stop funneling money to the Saudis, which the Saudis then use to fund madrasas, terrorism and extreme imams in the west.
 
I am weary of the doomsday scenarios as well. It is unfortunate that there is a presumption that effective communication on such issues can be delivered only by way of gloomy and apocalyptic visions.

Presently, oil is still being drawn from "easy to access" locations. There is still more oil located at sites that present challenges with respect to drilling. The U.S. has large deposits of shale oil, which would be quite costly to refine. Furthermore, there is a high likelihood that there is even more oil to be found in the high Arctic, Antarctic and at under ocean locations. The question is: do we want to drill in those locations in order to access oil that will be ever more costly - and costly in so many different ways (environmental, geopolitical, etc.)?

There are many changes that can be introduced now that would reduce oil consumption - just as there were changes introduced in the past that did exactly the same thing. Many would not even require any new technology. Of course, none of these will make cheap oil last forever.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Well, if we ran out of oil, I imagine we'd stop burning oil, because there wouldn't be any oil left to burn, because we'd ran out of oil, forcing us to stop burning oil. Can I make it any simpler? Perhaps we'll switch to electric power for cars, planes and trains, with nuclear plants everywhere, with a greater look at the thus far hypothetical world of nuclear fusion power sources.
Click to expand...

Here you go again. I didn't say if we run out. I said if we start to run out. Of course, we're running out now and have been since we pumped the first drop: it's a finite resource. But what I meant by that is what do we do if production starts to decline. You must understand that oil production doesn't just hum along normally until "Oops! All gone!" It starts a long and inexorable decline. There will never be a time when there's no oil in the ground. We will never get to that point. Unfortunately the world just isn't as simple as you'd like to make it.

I'm tired of these doomsday scenarios where the modern world collapses due to a lack of oil. The Romans, Chinese and later the pre-Industrial Revolution British built global empires built on commerce, trade and military prowess all without oil or natural gas, nor wide access to coal. For example, the Roman Empire's primary fuel source for almost everything was wood and charcoal, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_during_the_Roman_period
Click to expand...

How is this relevant? And if all of those powers could no longer produce enough wood or charcoal to meet their needs, without finding an adequate replacement, they would have collapsed (and in many cases did).

The memonites near my office in Kitchener all seem to be living good lives without oil usage. Not that I want to don black garb all day, but life can be lived after the oil is gone.
Click to expand...

If you knew more Mennonites you'd know that they use plenty of oil and gas. They're just a little more discreet about it. Anyway, at least you answered my question: if oil supplies start to decline, people who can't afford it should return to horses and buggies with no electricity in the home. Can't say it would do too much for the internet economy.

One of best things about the end of oil will be that the west will stop funneling money to the Saudis, which the Saudis then use to fund madrasas, terrorism and extreme imams in the west.
Click to expand...

Yes, wouldn't that be wonderful, but I'd love to see a better solution for the decline of oil than horses and buggies or dreams of miraculous but elusive scientific advances.

The environmental costs of continuing the oil economy aside, we've been drilling now for fifty years with ever-improving technology, but we've never found a single field remotely comparable to Ghawar/Safaniyah/Burgan. When Prudhoe Bay was discovered, everybody assumed there would be plenty more where that came from in Alaska. Unfortunately, it was one of a kind. Production from fields like Kashagan is taking way longer and costing way more than expected, geopolitical issues aside, and heavy oil sources simply aren't a major sustainable source of supply, considering the vast energy and environmental cost of their production.
 
As oil becomes scarcer, and oil production winds down, new fuel technologies will take their place. It's already happening with Hybrid and Ethanol. While neither is a particularly good answer to the problem, both highlight the fact that there ARE concerted efforts afoot right now to plan for "peak oil", even as the idea of "peak oil" becomes kitsch.
 
Ethanol is not a viable replacement for oil because it is a very intensive user of petroleum-based fertilizer. Also, I hope that we would be sensible enough to use corn to feed a growing population rather than the gas tanks of SUVs. I hope.

The most realistic thing we can do is to live in dense, walkable communities and live in smaller dwellings that require less energy for heating and cooling. Even if you're not an environmentalist, like Beez, you cannot argue that this sort of development has a myriad of social and lifestyle benefits that are desperately missing in suburbia. This is probably the reason why he chooses to live in Cabbagetown - a dense neighbourhood of pricey and small homes - and commute to Kitchener, rather than live in a much larger and cheaper home in a subdivision north of RIM park.
 
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