Toronto Ontario Line 3 | ?m | ?s

[allengeorge]

Is the initial capacity 34 trains per hour per direction? Dumb question mebbe, but I didn't see it spelled out explicitly.

 

[kotsy]

Surprise of the year!

$11-billion Ontario Line may not open until 2030, three years later than Ford’s initial promise

A report released by provincial transit agency Metrolinx Thursday confirmed the target deadline of 2027 won’t be met. The updated business case for the project lists 2030 as the tentative year Ontario Line operations will begin.

www.thestar.com

$11-billion Ontario Line may not open until 2030, three years later than Ford’s initial promise


The Ontario Line may not open until 2030, three years later than Premier Doug Ford promised when he unveiled the $11-billion transit project last year.

Although a senior government source had previously acknowledged the original target date of 2027 was under threat, a report released by provincial transit agency Metrolinx Thursday confirmed the deadline won’t be met. The updated business case for the project lists 2030 as the tentative year Ontario Line operations will begin.

Despite the delay, Ministry of Transportation spokesperson Natasha Tremblay said in a statement the Ontario PC government is “commitment to getting transit built is as strong as it was when Premier Ford announced this project.”

She said that once complete the 15.5-kilometre line, which would run between Exhibition Place and the Ontario Science Centre via downtown, will provide badly needed transit service to high-density neighbourhoods and reduce crowding on the TTC subway network. Metrolinx projects that by 2041 the line could serve as many as 388,000 trips each day and reduce crowding on Line 1 by 15 per cent.

Ford announced the Ontario Line in April 2019 as the centrepiece of his $28.5-billion GTA transit expansion plan, replacing the city of Toronto’s more advanced designs for a relief line subway.

The province’s line would use lighter trains than a TTC subway and be elevated on some parts of the route, and the Ontario government argued it could be built faster than the relief line, which would be entirely underground. The city had projected the first seven-kilometre phase of the relief subway could be complete as early as 2029.

“The relief line was changed ostensibly in order to make things go faster” but it was just “another change of plan that ends up taking longer,” said Coun. Paula Fletcher, who represents the Toronto-Danforth ward where both lines would run. She called news of the delay “bitterly disappointing.”

Ontario NDP transit critic Jessica Bell (University-Rosedale) predicted in a statement that “delayed and cancelled transit projects are going to be Ford’s legacy.”

“What’s so tragic is the relief line — the plan Ford scrapped — was ready to go. All levels of government were on board and shovels were supposed to hit dirt in 2020,” she said.

Bell also criticized a new service model Metrolinx examined in the business case that could see the Ontario Line initially operate with shorter, less frequent trains than previously anticipated.

Metrolinx says it could run lower-capacity service in the line’s early days when demand is lower, but is still committed to running trains as frequently as every 90 seconds during peak times by 2041.

Since Ford announced the Ontario Line, experts have told the Star said that while there were benefits to the plan — including the fact it would be longer and serve more marginalized neighbourhoods than the first phase of the relief line — the province’s claims it could design and build a major transit line beneath Toronto’s dense downtown in eight years were unrealistic.

Metrolinx spokesperson Scott Money said Thursday the original schedule was based on market conditions at the time, but since then “the commercial landscape has changed dramatically.”

The province is contracting work on the Ontario Line to the private sector through a public-private partnership model, and Money said that as the government prepared to go to market it discovered there was “diminishing interest” among industry take on such a large project. The trend towards less risky ventures was exacerbated by the economic downturn caused by COVID-19.

Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario responded by breaking up procurement of the project into three smaller public-private partnership contracts, which Money said “will help to mitigate market issues.” The final construction schedule will be determined by the winning bidder.

On Thursday, Infrastructure Ontario announced it had shortlisted bidding teams and issued a request for proposals on the first two contracts, which are for civil works, tunnels, and stations on the southern section of the line between Exhibition Place and the Don River, and for building, operating and maintaining the train fleet.

“By issuing these first Ontario Line RFPs, Premier Ford’s vision for a world-class regional transit system continues to make steady progress,” said Transportation Minister Caroline Mulroney in a statement.

 

[nfitz]

Uhh.......so the capacity estimate, in peak-periods is based on a number between 23%- 64% higher than the actual, observed conditions on Toronto Rockets?

No thanks. I've been on a Toronto Rocket that's packed.....the idea you're gong to squeeze, on average, one more person, into my personal space is a non-starter; assuming I believe that to be plausible.

And following on that thought, I find the number to be entirely incredulous.

Seems to be a typo somewhere. Refers to 1100 on a train being "observed". But that's the TTC peak load. So if that's 2.4, then anything higher would be above peak load, which ends up reducing capacity, because it takes too long for people to get on and off the train at stations.

If you are at Bloor southbound in AM peak, they are trying to close the doors to leave before they fully load the train to peak load, because they are more worried about getting the next train in place than increasing capacity.

 

[Northern Light]

Seems to be a typo somewhere. Refers to 1100 on a train being "observed". But that's the TTC peak load. So if that's 2.4, then anything higher would be above peak load, which ends up reducing capacity, because it takes too long for people to get on and off the train at stations.

If you are at Bloor southbound in AM peak, they are trying to close the doors to leave before they fully load the train to peak load, because they are more worried about getting the next train in place than increasing capacity.

I'd be inclined to agree w/you........

But note that they also state the TR design load; and it is normal, I'm afraid, that real-world observations report that load is less than 'design'.

So unless they wildly understated their observation number.......its still well below the number per m2 they are claiming for OL.

Something would seem genuinely amiss.

 

[nfitz]

But note that they also state the TR design load; and it is normal, I'm afraid, that real-world observations report that load is less than 'design'.

So unless they wildly understated their observation number.......its still well below the number per m2 they are claiming for OL.

Something would seem genuinely amiss.

Should be easy enough to do the math. A TR train is indeed 1100 at peak (and 540 off-peak). The area of the train, assuming a pure rectangle, is six cars that are 23.19 m long and 3.12 wide.

So the current TTC design load is 1100 ÷ (6 × 23.19 × 3.12) = 2.53 passengers/m²

And the off-peak load is 1.24 passengers/m².

Presumably that's what Metrolinx would be putting in the performance requirements for the project. When will we get to see them?

Using these factors, and 100-metre long trains that are 3-metres wide, each train would have a 760 person capacity and an 80-metre train would be about 608 people.

So 40 of the 100-metre long trains an hour (one every 90 seconds) gives you a capacity of about 30,400 an hour. While 34 of the 80-metre long trains an hour (a still ambitious, but more reasonable 34 trains an hour) gives you a capacity of about 20,675 an hour.

Probably slightly lower, as the widths include the walls, etc. But probably comparable, as that's true for both types of trains. At least on the back of my envelope.

 

[tayser]

If the line is catenary powered they (Metrolinx) might as well just choose the Alstom Citadis Spirit instead of they really wanted to save money, those trains have a maximum speed of 105km/h and can be configured as long as 60m

View attachment 289595

That's a tram/streetcar/light rail vehicle that'll probably wibble-wobble sideways at higher speeds/around bends... exactly what you don't want from a ride quality POV.

Real-world look/feel of the Alstom Metropolis platform (Sydney Metro Northwest - Tallawong to Chatswood) - the first 15 minutes probably cover all the scenarios the OL will - surface/terminus, elevated and underground - different station types too. Note top operational speed is 100kph which it reaches easily on the elevated section from 2m40s.

 

[allengeorge]

I think I'm going to call it: we're not going to see 40 tph or 100m trains.

There's a lot of vague language on maybe moving to 100m trains or maybe increasing frequency, but nothing's stated the mechanism for doing so. Will the contract have costed provisions for this? Is this something the city can ask for? Will the cost have to be negotiated at that time, or is it set up front? No one knows.

Oh, and from the PDBC Full Report pg 125:

"Option Performance Comparison

The Financial Case assesses the overall financial impact of the Ontario Line and the two operating options considered in this PDBC. This analysis leads to the following finding: the refined operating concept option uses smaller 80 m trains that carry lower capital and operating and maintenance costs, which reduces the overall cost of the project (compared to the use of 100 m trains in the IBC operating concept option). Metrolinx may consider the use of 80 m trains for the first 30-year operating period, and into the second 30-year operating period to reduce overall financial impact of the project."

It's actually kinda laughable, because the difference in cost is....pretty low.

 

[afransen]

That's a tram/streetcar/light rail vehicle that'll probably wibble-wobble sideways at higher speeds/around bends... exactly what you don't want from a ride quality POV.

Real-world look/feel of the Alstom Metropolis platform (Sydney Metro Northwest - Tallawong to Chatswood) - the first 15 minutes probably cover all the scenarios the OL will - surface/terminus, elevated and underground - different station types too. Note top operational speed is 100kph which it reaches easily on the elevated section from 2m40s.

Also low floor, which means circulation in the train is slower and fewer doors--great for lower capacity/lower cost systems without full grade separation. Anything fully grade separated should be high floor.

 

[nfitz]

That's a tram/streetcar/light rail vehicle that'll probably wibble-wobble sideways at higher speeds/around bends... exactly what you don't want from a ride quality POV.

Why would they consider a low-flow vehicle for a completely grade-separated line that's going to be stretched on capacity? You'd need longer platforms with narrow and more limited low-floor vehicles.

Wouldn't high-floor be cheaper to build and maintain too?

Surely it would be something more similar to the heavy-rail vehicles on the Canada Line - but 5-cars instead of 2 cars.

 

[turini2]

All these examples use 3rd rail though. OL will be pantograph

All of the 'generic models' have used pantographs in other cities - Alstom Metropolis in Sydney or the Singapore North-East line, Siemens Inspiro in Sofia, and the Hitachi Driverless Metro in Rome.

Note the use of a solid conductor overhead rail here in Sofia - very common in tunnels these days.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

Have it keep going on Highway 2.

Oshawa already has GO train service. Brooklin and Peterborough deserve subways!

 

[NoahB]

I think I'm going to call it: we're not going to see 40 tph or 100m trains.

There's a lot of vague language on maybe moving to 100m trains or maybe increasing frequency, but nothing's stated the mechanism for doing so. Will the contract have costed provisions for this? Is this something the city can ask for? Will the cost have to be negotiated at that time, or is it set up front? No one knows.

Oh, and from the PDBC Full Report pg 125:

"Option Performance Comparison

The Financial Case assesses the overall financial impact of the Ontario Line and the two operating options considered in this PDBC. This analysis leads to the following finding: the refined operating concept option uses smaller 80 m trains that carry lower capital and operating and maintenance costs, which reduces the overall cost of the project (compared to the use of 100 m trains in the IBC operating concept option). Metrolinx may consider the use of 80 m trains for the first 30-year operating period, and into the second 30-year operating period to reduce overall financial impact of the project."

It's actually kinda laughable, because the difference in cost is....pretty low.

The same document states they are designing everything for 40tph and 100m trains.
They are speaking about the operations for the initial batch of trains to be used in your quote.

CBC asked Metrolinx about the lower operations and they said that they are still targeting the 40tph/100m from the get-go but wanted to compare it to other scenarios.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Oshawa already has GO train service. Brooklin and Peterborough deserve subways!

London, Ontario deserves an Underground!

From link.

 

[gweed123]

A nice looking new map of the Ontario Line. From Pg 92 of the PDBC. Note the absence of a connection to the Lakeshore East and Stouffville Line at Gerrard. Good sign the Gerrard GO Station is cancelled.

Gerrard made sense before East Harbour really became a thing. With so much density proposed at that location, it makes it the more logical transfer point. Both aren't really needed, especially since the community that would have been served by the Gerrard GO station will still be served by the OL.

East Harbour will be the operational mirror image of Exhibition, essentially.

 

[micheal_can]

Oshawa already has GO train service. Brooklin and Peterborough deserve subways!

Well, build a new line along Steeles Then it can swing up to those places..