McGuinty to have defacto majority after all?

[Jonny5]

PC MPP Frank Klees has announced he is running for speaker of the legislature.

Assuming he wins, and there's no reason he won't if the Liberals play their cards right, this means the opposition and the Liberals will each have 53 votes in the house. The speaker casts the deciding vote. By tradition, the speaker is to be non-partisan and act in a conservative capacity, like the Governor General. He should not be voting against the government, especially on matters of confidence. McGuinty can effectively govern as though he has a majority.

This is a pretty big deal. The article even says he told Horwath before telling Hudak. I think this may be the first shot across Hudak's bow by disgruntled members. Perhaps we're seeing a repeat of what happened federally, where the "Progressives" split from the "Conservatives"

Even if Klees does vote as an opposition member would, they now have no margin for error. If every Liberal member is present, every single opposition member must be present to vote down legislation. If the Liberals know someone is sick or on vacation and they can whip their whole caucus, they can pass anything.

 

[gabe]

Shocking, a traitor who is Conservative !!

 

[MetroMan]

I wouldn't be surprised to see an NDPer or two cross the floor in the next cabinet shakeup. The Liberals need a Majority to ensure a smooth transition from McGuinty to his successor some time in the next 2 years, and floor crossing is the easiest way to get it.

 

[adma]

I wouldn't be surprised to see an NDPer or two cross the floor in the next cabinet shakeup.

Why? Horwath doesn't seem to be doing anything that'd drive her caucus members from the party.

 

[MetroMan]

If it's clear that the Liberals will be in government for 4 years, would an NDP MPP who's closer to the centre not want to accept a job as a cabinet Minister instead of remaining a simple 3rd party backbencher for 4 years?

 

[jeff316]

The problem is that Cabinet posts aren't that tempting anymore. Everything is pretty centrally run, so aside from pay and "prestige", being a Cabinet minister is really just being the promoter/fall guy for the decisions made by the center/inner circle.

That's not a particularly enticing situation for someone who wants to cross the floor; there'd have to be some other particularly compelling factors for someone in NDP/PCs to jump ship. Which is why the Klees move (MPP since 1995, unsucessful leaderhsip candidate, former Cabinet Minister - not a lot left to achieve) makes a lot of sense.

 

[MetroMan]

Well that didn't last long. Klees aborts his run for speaker. (Did The Star just make pun there? )

I still think that a cabinet position is a compelling enough reason to cross the floor. An MPP could stay in his same boring uninfluential job in the backbench or could take a chance to have an impact. Another flag the Liberals could be looking for is an NDP member that just barely won his/her seat. In the event of an election, will that MPP be able to keep their seat? How about joining the Liberals and insuring that he/she has their job for the next 4 years, a cabinet position perhaps and a much better chance at keeping their seat in the next election?

I don't think that the Liberals are going to let this minority get in the way of a McGuinty succession plan. Certainly not by one vote. In a Minority, McGuinty leaving equals an election call. There's no way the NDP and the PCs are going to let that opportunity fly away. I don't think McGuinty wants to fight another election and I don't believe the electorate will give him a win for a 4th time when he barely edged in a 3rd. There will have to be a Liberal leadership convention within the next couple of years, with a safety net of no election call before that leader is established.

McGuinty will try to rule his Minority Government like a Majority for at least a year because no one party wants an election at this point. However, sometime approaching year two, the Liberals are going to want to entice somebody to cross the floor just before a cabinet shuffle. If successful, I believe we'll see a leadership convention, with McGuinty leaving before year 3 of this term to give that leader an opportunity to make his mark with the electorate.