Lack of meaningful Passenger Rail service outside the Quebec-Windsor Corridor

[roger1818]

I'm very surprised that Catenary is this high...

It just goes to show that while the initial cost of electrification is high, the re-occurring costs are much lower. If the government were to help cover the costs of the catenary, it would become even more attractive.

I suspect the only reason it is as low as it is, is because of challenges getting power to remote areas. It would be interesting to see a hybrid rollout, where they install catenary on the sections of the main lines which are close to the grid, and use an alternate fuel in the remote regions and on branch lines. They might also use batteries for shunting onto sidings and on shorter branch lines.

 

[roger1818]

Electrifiction could very well be the best route for Win/QC but I think CGY/ED will be hydrogen when Smith needs to show off the province's hydrogen potentil.

I don't think CN or CPKC care what Smith wants, unless she is willing to subsidize the fuel costs, to make hydrogen cost competitive.

In the rest of the country with huge distnces & much colder temps, hydrogen is the only option to cut GHG emissions. Trying to string wires from VCR to HFX is ridiculously expensive. Yes, hydrogen fuel is more expensive but those prices r coming down quickly & will continue to do so due to the technology & infrstructure growing.

It depends on a variety of factors, but from the chart that Urban Sky shared, B20 and HDRD30 beat out hydrogen by a wide margin. Yes they have a lower carbon reduction potential, but they are much cheaper. Unless someone can find a way to make Blue Hydrogen affordably (I'm not holding my breath), Physics says that Green Hydrogen will always be more than double the cost of electricity (unless hydrogen production is subsidized)

 

[micheal_can]

Don't forget that net-zero does not mean zero emissions. Net zero refers to the balance between the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) that's produced and the amount that's removed from the atmosphere. It can be achieved through a combination of emission reduction and emission removal.

It has yet to be proven that hydrogen is the most cost effective way of achieving net-zero. It might be cheaper to just just offset them, since GHG emissions from rail represent only about 1% of Canada's total GHG emissions (7.65 Mt of 752 Mt in 2019). Granted I am skeptical about the integrity of many Carbon offset programs.

I also wouldn't rule out electrification. Physics tells us that electricity will always be significantly cheaper than green hydrogen, so for well traveled routes, it will come down to which is cheaper, building the catenary or buying a more expensive fuel. While it is true that the cost of building catenary is proportional to the length of the route, one must also remember that amount of fuel used is also proportional to the length of the route.

The railways have accountants who will calculate the cheapest option to achieve net-zero, when they are required to do so. In the meantime, the cheapest option is to use continue using diesel and experiment with prototype hydrogen (and battery) locomotives, mostly as a marketing initiative and a delay tactic.

The problem is, the way we extract hydrogen in Canada is NOT carbon neutral. Most of it is through NG extraction.That is the opposite of carbon neutral.

 

[roger1818]

The problem is, the way we extract hydrogen in Canada is NOT carbon neutral. Most of it is through NG extraction.That is the opposite of carbon neutral.

And in many other parts of the world it is even worse as they steam reform coal or other fossil fuel. Before we start to even think about using hydrogen as an energy source, we need to fix this.

 

[micheal_can]

And in many other parts of the world it is even worse as they steam reform coal or other fossil fuel. Before we start to even think about using hydrogen as an energy source, we need to fix this.

Everyone thinks hydrogen fuel cell is clean because all it emits is water. Most of them do not know how we extract hydrogen.The fossil fuel byproduct is likely the least of the 2 worst ways we get it as it is being released regardless.

 

[micheal_can]

ArcGIS Web Application

walkitect.maps.arcgis.com

Not my work.
Something like this should be in the servers at Via and the various governments and be used to direct where money should be spent in areas not served by a daily service. One thing it does show is how car dependent Canada has become.

 

[micheal_can]

With the QC-W Corridor having a real potential of HSR, could a reasonable assumption be that we might see a renaissance in nation building through passenger rail construction? In the decades to come, could we see a phased approach to building HSR throughout Canada? They way I would see it is, after the QC=W and C-E corridors have operational HSR, the government could look to other city pairs as well as connections to these corridors to expand from. TBH, I feel that if HSR ever connects Vancouver to Halifax, none of us will live to see it.

 

[Islington Express Bus]

With the QC-W Corridor having a real potential of HSR, could a reasonable assumption be that we might see a renaissance in nation building through passenger rail construction? In the decades to come, could we see a phased approach to building HSR throughout Canada? They way I would see it is, after the QC=W and C-E corridors have operational HSR, the government could look to other city pairs as well as connections to these corridors to expand from. TBH, I feel that if HSR ever connects Vancouver to Halifax, none of us will live to see it.

With a new Conservative government being elected, we are guaranteed only a renaissance of tax cuts and deferred spending.

 

[micheal_can]

With a new Conservative government being elected, we are guaranteed only a renaissance of tax cuts and deferred spending.

Well, that is also a real possibility, especially if CN and Via don't sort out their issues with the new trains on the Corridor.

 

[nfitz]

With a new Conservative government being elected ...

Given the polls aren't that different than before the 2019 election, I wouldn't bank on that. The Liberals (though not the NDP) are polling better than they were before the 2015 election.

 

[rbt]

And in many other parts of the world it is even worse as they steam reform coal or other fossil fuel. Before we start to even think about using hydrogen as an energy source, we need to fix this.

There are individual projects in northern China that are each equal to 1% of [2018] global hydrogen production which will bring that number up significantly. That said, they're also planning to use that hydrogen on-site for production of sustainable aviation fuel and methanol.

Despite massive electric grid investment they're still struggling with capacity. Hydrogen production is one of the ways they're intending to handle regional over-capacity issues. Nearly every 2024+ green generation installation will include a battery bank too.

 

[micheal_can]

Given the polls aren't that different than before the 2019 election, I wouldn't bank on that. The Liberals (though not the NDP) are polling better than they were before the 2015 election.

What polls are you seeing? All the polls I see have the CPC above 40% and the LPC in the mid 20s% That is much worse than the last election polling.

 

[Mihairokov]

What polls are you seeing? All the polls I see have the CPC above 40% and the LPC in the mid 20s% That is much worse than the last election polling.

They're referencing 2019 pre-writ polls which would put the CPC north of 40% and the LPC between 25-30%. That would have been March 2019, and by the writ period in September the two were effectively tied. With how vote efficiency goes, the CPC can win a national vote by 2-3% and still lose the seat total.

Obviously a lot has happened between then and now, and incumbent national governments seem very likely to fall these days, but I don't think it's wise to count our chickens before they have hatched and assume who will be running government in a year. Polls can whip around fairly quick.

 

[micheal_can]

They're referencing 2019 pre-writ polls which would put the CPC north of 40% and the LPC between 25-30%. That would have been March 2019, and by the writ period in September the two were effectively tied. With how vote efficiency goes, the CPC can win a national vote by 2-3% and still lose the seat total.

Obviously a lot has happened between then and now, and incumbent national governments seem very likely to fall these days, but I don't think it's wise to count our chickens before they have hatched and assume who will be running government in a year. Polls can whip around fairly quick.

I am not counting chickens. However, I am making sure that the coop is ready for the storm that may blow through.

Truly, my hope next election is another minority government. Don't care who leads that, but for Canada, I feel that is best.