Discussion in 'Politics & Diplomacy' started by King of Kensington, Jan 27, 2016.
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Wow, what a night!
It was so close for Bernie Sanders...
Who could have imagined a self-professed democratic socialist taking half the vote in a Democratic Party in the Midwestern corn belt even a few months ago?
Does anyone see a possible path to victory for Bernie Sanders? Because it seems that pretty much everyone sees Hillary as the inevitable nominee.
It's an uphill battle. Bernie needs to make significant inroads with Black voters. Plus the superdelegates have a guaranteed 15% of the vote.
The generation gap is really sharp, with those 45+ going for Hillary and those under 45 going for Sanders.
I wonder if as it starts to get closer in time for the other, more racially/ethnically diverse states to vote in the primaries, Bernie Sanders will start to change his tactics and selling points to become more attractive towards them.
While obviously it's the case that Vermont where Bernie has lots of experience in isn't very diverse, he did grow up in New York city and fought for Civil Rights and against segregation in Chicago, during his college years so it's not like he doesn't have a history/experience with racial minorities and racial issues.
Is there a particular reason for the stronger preference that ethnic minority demographics have for Clinton over Sanders -- a perceived weakness for him that's regularly talked about?
The main thing I hear about was how it's related to Bill Clinton's charisma and popularity among the Black community back then in the 90s, but are there other factors besides that? I know older Americans often remember the Clinton years more fondly and Sanders has the generational gap going, but on that note aren't ethnic minorities also younger than the American populace as a whole, which would also tend to favor him?
I think it's familiarity with the Clintons and Sanders until recently being an unknown.
One thing that most voters are unaware of is that despite Bernie's landslide victory in NH and near victory in Iowa, Clinton is actually way ahead of him in with the number of delegates, thanks to so called "superdelegates". This article helps explain why that is the case. While these numbers are not set in stone, this is yet another obstacle created by a political system that is stacked against him which Bernie will have to overcome.
It seems like in the US, it's Hispanics who are the youngest population with a median age in the late 20s while whites have a median of 42, blacks have 33 and Asians 36, at least in 2013. But I suppose young people don't always have high voter turnout, which is one of the things Bernie counts on.
Interestingly as a side note, for Canadians from the NHS in 2011, it's actually the Black population with youngest median age at 29.5 with South Asian Canadians at 30.2 and Chinese ones at 38.6 (close to a mid/late 30s age for Asian-Americans), compared to 40.1 for Canadians as a whole.
They say that newer immigrant groups have younger median ages (like Hispanics in the US), but that doesn't seem to match Black Americans (or Canadians for that matter) being much younger than Asian North Americans though the latter is much more recent in immigration, though it does make sense for US Hispanics.
I might be wrong but I do think American racial/ethnic minorities have higher voter turnout than Canadian ones.
The superdelegates can be persuaded to change their minds, as they were with Obama. On the other hand, will the establishment of what has been called the second most enthusiastic capitalist party in the world be willing to allow a self-proclaimed democratic socialist to be their presidential candidate?
Never heard this one before!
Sadly, I think Bernie may be done.