unimaginative2
Senior Member
Tories losing ground with voters
BRIAN LAGHI
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
May 13, 2008 at 9:48 PM EDT
OTTAWA — The federal Tories have emerged from a controversy-laden winter scarcely ahead of the equally beat-up Liberals as Canadians express insecurity about their children's economic future.
The results of a new wide-ranging poll for The Globe and Mail-CTV News finds Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives a scant three percentage points ahead of Stéphane Dion's Liberals, 34 to 31. Mr. Harper's government has fallen from a height of 39 per cent in February, when the party was inching into majority government territory. Moreover, voters in Ontario, a keystone to a potential Conservative majority, are telling their government that it's not doing enough to help them weather turbulent economic waters.
The Tories have also experienced significant erosion among voters in Quebec and among those earning less than $50,000 a year.
“The Conservatives have been on the defensive for the last several months,†said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel, the polling firm that conducted the survey. “The economy is starting to become top of mind, and they seem to have difficulty going on the offensive.â€
Mr. Donolo added that the Liberals under Mr. Dion's leadership may not have done much better over the past few months, but “you know the way it is. The main Opposition party benefits by default.â€
The Liberal support of 31 per cent is up a point from last month and four points from February. By contrast, the Tories, at 34 per cent, dropped two points from last month and five points from their postelection high in February. The NDP inched up one point, to 16 per cent, while the Greens stayed the same at 10. The Bloc Québécois continues to lead in Quebec with 38 per cent.
Mr. Donolo said the trend line for the Tories over the winter should be a concern, adding that every time the Conservatives bump into majority territory, they appear to drift back down.
The poll results were released amid a litany of difficulties for the Conservatives, which include the election financing in-and-out scheme, controversies surrounding Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier, diplomatic leaks that allegedly affected the U.S. Democratic primary campaign of Barack Obama and allegations that party members once offered a million-dollar insurance policy for the parliamentary vote of the late MP Chuck Cadman.
But Mr. Donolo said Tuesday that one of the biggest concerns for the Tories should be anxiety about the economy. According to the poll, 47 per cent of Canadians surveyed believe teenagers today will not be as well off at the age of 30 as are current 30-year-olds.
The anxiety about the future also shows up in surveys on the environment, said another pollster, Greg Lyle of Innovative Research Group Inc., and will provide an opportunity for a party that wants to address it.
“It's an agenda waiting to happen for someone wanting to grab it,†Mr. Lyle said. “It will hit a responsive chord.â€
Also potentially disquieting for the Tories is a sense of unease in Ontario.
The survey found that 64 per cent of Ontarians agree that the federal government hasn't done enough to help the province through its current downturn. More important, Mr. Lyle said, only 22 per cent of those surveyed said they disagreed. The figure is a concern because it suggests that a good portion of Tory supporters in Ontario either believe the government has not done enough or are neutral on the issue.
In Canada's most populous province, the Liberals lead with 40-per-cent support, compared with 35 per cent for the Conservatives.
In Quebec, the Tories have seen their support drop to 20 per cent from 25 per cent, which is five points below the 2006 election. The Liberals are up five points to 25 per cent.
Another difficulty for the Conservatives appears to be among those earning less than $50,000, where support has fallen to 23 per cent from 33 per cent. On the other hand, the Conservatives have bumped up significantly among those whose household income is greater than $100,000.
Mr. Lyle said the results do not portend an election being sparked by any party.
The survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted May 8 to 11 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
BRIAN LAGHI
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
May 13, 2008 at 9:48 PM EDT
OTTAWA — The federal Tories have emerged from a controversy-laden winter scarcely ahead of the equally beat-up Liberals as Canadians express insecurity about their children's economic future.
The results of a new wide-ranging poll for The Globe and Mail-CTV News finds Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives a scant three percentage points ahead of Stéphane Dion's Liberals, 34 to 31. Mr. Harper's government has fallen from a height of 39 per cent in February, when the party was inching into majority government territory. Moreover, voters in Ontario, a keystone to a potential Conservative majority, are telling their government that it's not doing enough to help them weather turbulent economic waters.
The Tories have also experienced significant erosion among voters in Quebec and among those earning less than $50,000 a year.
“The Conservatives have been on the defensive for the last several months,†said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel, the polling firm that conducted the survey. “The economy is starting to become top of mind, and they seem to have difficulty going on the offensive.â€
Mr. Donolo added that the Liberals under Mr. Dion's leadership may not have done much better over the past few months, but “you know the way it is. The main Opposition party benefits by default.â€
The Liberal support of 31 per cent is up a point from last month and four points from February. By contrast, the Tories, at 34 per cent, dropped two points from last month and five points from their postelection high in February. The NDP inched up one point, to 16 per cent, while the Greens stayed the same at 10. The Bloc Québécois continues to lead in Quebec with 38 per cent.
Mr. Donolo said the trend line for the Tories over the winter should be a concern, adding that every time the Conservatives bump into majority territory, they appear to drift back down.
The poll results were released amid a litany of difficulties for the Conservatives, which include the election financing in-and-out scheme, controversies surrounding Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier, diplomatic leaks that allegedly affected the U.S. Democratic primary campaign of Barack Obama and allegations that party members once offered a million-dollar insurance policy for the parliamentary vote of the late MP Chuck Cadman.
But Mr. Donolo said Tuesday that one of the biggest concerns for the Tories should be anxiety about the economy. According to the poll, 47 per cent of Canadians surveyed believe teenagers today will not be as well off at the age of 30 as are current 30-year-olds.
The anxiety about the future also shows up in surveys on the environment, said another pollster, Greg Lyle of Innovative Research Group Inc., and will provide an opportunity for a party that wants to address it.
“It's an agenda waiting to happen for someone wanting to grab it,†Mr. Lyle said. “It will hit a responsive chord.â€
Also potentially disquieting for the Tories is a sense of unease in Ontario.
The survey found that 64 per cent of Ontarians agree that the federal government hasn't done enough to help the province through its current downturn. More important, Mr. Lyle said, only 22 per cent of those surveyed said they disagreed. The figure is a concern because it suggests that a good portion of Tory supporters in Ontario either believe the government has not done enough or are neutral on the issue.
In Canada's most populous province, the Liberals lead with 40-per-cent support, compared with 35 per cent for the Conservatives.
In Quebec, the Tories have seen their support drop to 20 per cent from 25 per cent, which is five points below the 2006 election. The Liberals are up five points to 25 per cent.
Another difficulty for the Conservatives appears to be among those earning less than $50,000, where support has fallen to 23 per cent from 33 per cent. On the other hand, the Conservatives have bumped up significantly among those whose household income is greater than $100,000.
Mr. Lyle said the results do not portend an election being sparked by any party.
The survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted May 8 to 11 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
