The part that is most credible to me is the section from Dolbeau to the St Lawrence. If (an assumption on my part) ore volumes are going to ramp up, a resource railway from there to the St Lawrence could be economically justified.
It’s a bit of a statement that the CN line to the same region isn’t attractive, but perhaps there simply isn’t the kind of port terminal possible within reach of CN’s existing lines. Loading more ships in Baie Comeau rather than, say, Sorel, has its merits - espcially for minerals.
The ”disrupting” value of adding a third main line from the west, competing with the two existing lines, is hugely attractive, but possibly still far-fetched . Canada has many two-supplier regimes (eg Rogers vs Bell) which offer only a partial free-market solution - with a regulatory body full of lawyers making up for the lack of a wide open competitive regime to force a balance of interest between shippers and railways. Perhaps as our economy grows, there is enough new freight to justify that third line, but it’s hard to believe that CN and CP could not add capacity to the two existing lines for less money than reactivating a third.
If the proponents think they can simply steal business away from the two existing railways, that’s a hard sell in my eyes. Neither the existing investors nor the current regulator will welcome that change. (Upstart airlines and telco’s don’t fare well in Canadian regulatory space). However, if Western shippers see more of their product being shipped through Eastern ports rather than to the Pacific, and fundamentally do not like how they are being treated to date, perhaps they have access to enough capital to make a third line a reat threat and not just a bluff.
Lastly, remember that the NTR was not build to current standards for car weight or train length, and has been abandoned for a long time. The bridges that are in place may not be reclaimable. Some parts are on rock but others are on swamp. It’s a hugely expensive proposition to build and operate all the way across the Canadian Shield. Just ask John A MacDonald or MacKenzie and Mann.
- Paul