Election 2009

[afransen]

I guess I'll kick off discussion of the soon-to-be-called federal election. Apparently Harper is doubling down and saying that it's majority or bust for his government.

Majority government in reach: Harper
Last Updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2009 | 10:21 PM ET
CBC News

Prime Minister Stephen Harper believes a majority government "is in reach" for the Conservative party the next time Canadians go to the polls for a federal election.

In candid remarks made last week to Conservative supporters in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., at a meeting that was closed to the media, Harper stressed the need for the party to capture a majority.

"Let me be clear about this, we need to win a majority in the next election campaign," Harper said. "I am not just saying that because we need to win a few more seats."

He said that if the Conservatives don't succeed in getting a majority he predicted the Liberals will govern in a coalition with the NDP and the Bloc Québécois.

"If they get together and force us to the polls, we have to teach them a lesson and get back there with a majority, and make sure their little coalition never happens," said Harper.

Harper's speech was videotaped by someone in the audience and a copy of the address was sent to the Liberal Party of Canada, which sent it to CBC News. The Liberals claim the tape shows that Harper doesn't want to work with the other parties in Parliament and therefore justifies Liberal Party Leader Michael Ignatieff's threat to force an election.

Publicly, the Conservatives have said it will be irresponsible of the opposition parties to bring down the government and send Canadians back to the polls.

The Liberals have said they will try to bring down the Conservative minority government at the first opportunity.

Parliament resumes Sept. 14, and the Liberals will have their first opportunity to present a no-confidence motion on Oct. 1.

Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe said earlier this week an election appears to be inevitable.

"Mr. Ignatieff doesn't seem to look like he's going to back down, and Mr. Harper is not the kind of man who makes compromises or who achieves consensus … so I think the chances of an election are great — more than great," Duceppe said.

The Liberals and the Bloc Québécois have both released a round of election-style advertisements.

Do you think this is a wise strategy for Harper to take? It makes anything short of a majority a failure on his part. And the electoral map does not make a majority terribly likely for the CPC. Many of their seats in Ontario and Quebec are on shaky ground, since the spreads between the LPC and the CPC in these two provinces have shifted substantially. On election day 2008, the CPC lead the LPC 5.4 points in Ontario. According to recent polling, they now trail by 1.1. In Quebec, they trailed by 2 points on election day, and now by a whopping 21 points. Add to this reduced vote-splitting due to weaker NDP and Green polling numbers, and I would not feel too comfortable as a CPC MP in either province, which is home to about 60 of their 143 seats. They may pick up seats in the Atlantic, but not enough to overcome their impending losses in central Canada.

So, if another CPC majority is returned, how do you people feel about a coalition government?

 

[lordmandeep]

I doubt a majority is possibile.

This will a complete Cons vs Liberal fight and the NDP and Green will suffer.

Meaning both parties end up over 30%.

The Liberals imo will likely get more seats in Quebec and the Toronto area, I think a few could easily switch.

I think Harper is counting on anger to go "screw it lets all vote Conservative."

It may work but really if the could not against Dion, then like come on.

 

[nfitz]

Seems a dangerous move to pull the trigger this early. Remember the flak Peterson took for rolling the dice too early? Went from polling showing a Liberal majority, to the NDP majority government.

 

[MetroMan]

^ I think if Ignatieff delayed it any longer, he'd come across as a weakling like Dion did.

He's playing his cards right: reject the unpopular coalition, show that he's trying to work with the government -- all the while building the Liberal war chest -- and then finally call an election in the fall when there is traditionally a better voter turnout.

If the Liberals come up short, I think he'll then be in a good position to tell the public that he's ready to work with the NDP and the PQ because Harper has had multiple chances to run a government and has lost the confidence of parliament.

The Governor General will have the common sense to see that the Conservatives will be defeated at the throne speech and will default to allowing the Liberal-NDP-PQ coalition to form the government.

I think Harper's days are numbered.

 

[afransen]

The incumbent party has the first right to seek the confidence of the House. Even if the CPC are not the party with the most seats, they can try, before the Liberals would get their shot. This seldom happens, but it is the right of the incumbent to try. Thus, the GG can't give the Libs a shot to form a government unless the CPC first yield.

 

[salvius]

With the current CPCs fortunes in Quebec (or lack thereof), I cannot realistically see a majority.

 

[MetroMan]

The incumbent party has the first right to seek the confidence of the House. Even if the CPC are not the party with the most seats, they can try, before the Liberals would get their shot. This seldom happens, but it is the right of the incumbent to try. Thus, the GG can't give the Libs a shot to form a government unless the CPC first yield.

That would be a formality then, one that would make it easier for the public to accept a coalition.

Harper gives the speech from the throne, doesn't get the confidence of parliament, the GG calls the Liberals to attempt to form government, the NDP and PQ support them, Iggy becomes PM.

 

[urbanfan89]

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/09/09/prime-minister-stephen-harper-video-marjority.html

Let the fireworks begin!

 

[lordmandeep]

I like govt staying out people's lives but its like Harper has gone way to lazy...

Its like he does not care.

 

[kEiThZ]

What else can you expect Harper to say? He has to say a majority is in reach to rally the troops and intimidate the opposition. I wouldn't put much stock into a statement like that. They have their own pollsters who usually do far more in-depth polling than many of the newspapers. I think they know where they stand.

 

[lordmandeep]

yeah but I am wondering there will be anger over there being to many elections but really if they could not win against Dion who was advocating increased taxes, how will he win a majority now.

Quebec is gone and imo Ontario is a toss up between Liberals and the Tories.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ If there's to be anger about too many elections it'll be directed at the Libs, not the Tories. After all, guess who's vote will bring down the government? You can be fairly sure the government isn't going to vote themselves out of a job. All that said, we always debate this issue of public angst over having another election. It usually comes to pass in week 2 of the campaign.

 

[urbanfan89]

^ If there's to be anger about too many elections it'll be directed at the Libs, not the Tories. After all, guess who's vote will bring down the government? You can be fairly sure the government isn't going to vote themselves out of a job. All that said, we always debate this issue of public angst over having another election. It usually comes to pass in week 2 of the campaign.

Ironically, an election *is* due this fall according to the fixed election dates law the Conservative government passed in 2006. Most importantly, there was no no-confidence vote before Harper unilaterally decided that "parliament doesn't work" (if it doesn't work, it's because you don't want to make it work ).

This tape is proof that he's in it for himself, not even for the good of the party (perhaps because the knives will plunge into his back unless he gets a majority). I'm not sure whether the CPC can survive as a cohesive group post-Harper.

 

[Roy G Biv]

He blew his chance for a majority last election. There's no way he'll get it now.

Look for another CPC minority with gains made by the Libs.

This will be Harper's last election.

 

[kEiThZ]

Ironically, an election *is* due this fall according to the fixed election dates law the Conservative government passed in 2006. Most importantly, there was no no-confidence vote before Harper unilaterally decided that "parliament doesn't work" (if it doesn't work, it's because you don't want to make it work ).

This tape is proof that he's in it for himself, not even for the good of the party (perhaps because the knives will plunge into his back unless he gets a majority). I'm not sure whether the CPC can survive as a cohesive group post-Harper.

I am not saying its fair, but if you look at how things will work out, if there's any anger on the public's part for having an election it's more likely to be directed away from the incumbent. The only time the public really clamours for an election is when THEY feel that the government is incompetent (through mismanagement or scandal usually). In this case, regardless of how most partisan supporters (like yourself for example) feel, it doesn't seem to be sticking in the public mindset that this government is bad enough that another election is warranted. There's no doubt that some are dissatisfied with the government. But the polls have stayed remarkably consistent. I say remarkable because it's pretty rare that a government polls so consistently through a recession. Like it or not, the biggest change that could occur would be the election of a weak Liberal minority. And I am doubtful that the average Canadian, considers that outcome worthwhile....because trading one minority for another isn't all that big a change for the average Canadian.

Nevertheless, if Iggy is careful, he should be able to allay any public angst about another election. And he seems set to do that with his double tracked approach (kinda work with the government but keep saying how unworkable it is). But if he screws this up, the risks for him are just as big as that for the PM.

Other than that, talk of the CPC imploding is very premature at best. Overall they've succeeded in getting elected, which is something neither the Reform or the PCs could have accomplished alone a decade ago. If they lose, they'll go through the usual in-fighting that political parties go through. It won't be any better or worse than what the Liberals went through during the waning days of the Chretien and post-Martin. But I doubt you'll see them implode. I am fairly sure the conservatives have no desire to hand Canada over for the next decade or two to the Liberals without a fight.