Thanks for the links!
Finally I got time to read the report. I wasn't impressed; it looks like the authors cannot make a strong case for LRT on Eglinton East:
1. They want smaller LRVs, to reduce the footprint and minimize the impact on the Highland Creek valley.
Fair enough. However, this negates one of the key advantages of LRT over buses: higher capacity. Will the capacity of those smaller LRVs be any bigger than the capacity of artic buses? If not, then they should consider “Option 3”: median BRT lanes.
2. The loss of the direct connection to ECLRT, due to the SSE tunnel being in the way. Again, fair enough. And, one can blame the SSE design team, that was certainly aware of the EE LRT plans and could accommodate the LRT tunnel from the east, but chose to neglect that element.
The benefits of ECLRT connection wouldn’t be limited to avoiding the transfer for those who want to continue along Eglinton. There would be operational benefits, too.
Currently, the MSF for ECLRT is placed on the west side, near Mt Dennis. In the morning there is more demand towards the centre than towards the suburbs. But the LRVs that serve the demand from Kennedy towards Yonge, will first have to travel from Mt Dennis all the way to Kennedy. If there was at least a non-revenue connection between ECLRT and EELRT, then some of the ECLRT vehicles could be stored in the EELRT’s MSF overnight, and they could get to Kennedy faster in the morning.
Plus, additional opportunities would exist to deal with planned repairs, as well as accidental blockages. If all those operational benefits are out, then one point is subtracted from the LRT option’s score.
3. They are dropping the tunnel at Kennedy for a good reason, but that doesn’t explain why they are dropping the underground station at Lawrence / Morningside as well. There are no constructability issues with that station. If they are doing that to cut the costs, they should say so. However, the cost reduction will not be that big, and won’t improve the chances of this project getting funded.
4. The authors do not expect the LRT travel times to improve compared to the existing RedTO bus lanes (Table 5 on Page 27).
Moreover, the transit ridership impact from the LRT is stated as negative (-4,700, continuation of Table 5 on Page 28). This could be a modeling mistake: they only counted riders boarding in the LRT corridor for the LRT’s total count, while the Bus RedTO’s total count includes the boardings on Guildwood, Meadowvale, Morningside north of Sheppard, etc. The actual count for the LRT option might be better than their estimate.
But even then, if they do not forecast a
growth in ridership, then how can they expect a positive "city building" impact of the LRT (Page 18)? If residents and businesses settle next to higher-order transit, they aren’t doing so because the rails are cool, or because they can shout "Bingo!" when an LRV is coming. If they settle next to higher-order transit, then they want to use that higher-order transit. And then, the forecast ridership counts have to go up. If they don't go up, then there is no "city building" impact.