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Crosstown LRT | Metrolinx

Steve X

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All of these numbers are woefully inadequate with the exception of the Sheppard Line (Line 4). The fact that they plan on running 18 trains along 19km of rail on Eglinton vs 15 trains on 11km of rail, tells everyone all they need to know about how flawed their fleet management plan is.
If the two LRTs are identical, you would be right. Yes they should run more trains, especially in the subway portion. It's not really that flawed. Line 5 will operate with ATO at 80 km/h for two thirds of the line while Line 6 will operate at 50-60 km/h. The running time for Line 5 is around 40-45 minutes while Line 6 is around 30-35 minutes. 18 vs 15 trains make sense. Plus current bus ridership on the surface portion of Line 5 is lower than Line 6.

Now if we look at the bus fleet plan that's a bigger joke on it's own. They plan on increasing the number of buses in service only by 10 between 2020 and 2021. This wouldnt even be enough to cover the overcrowding issues on even 3 out of the dozens of routes that are overcrowded. The increase between 2021 and 2022 of 32 buses is cute, especially considering that fact that it looks more unlikely by the day that the Eglinton LRT will be open by the end of 2021. So whatever buses that would have been freed up there will most likely be sticking around there longer, thus the net impact of those 32 additional buses will shrink dramatically.
They did say the improvements won't happen if the LRT doesn't open in 2021.

Also, why are they still running the 34 along Eglinton even after the crosstown is complete, isnt that redundant?
You'll be surprise how busy the 85 is along Line 4 in peak hours. Subway isn't the solution to everything.
 

Amare

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If the two LRTs are identical, you would be right. Yes they should run more trains, especially in the subway portion. It's not really that flawed. Line 5 will operate with ATO at 80 km/h for two thirds of the line while Line 6 will operate at 50-60 km/h. The running time for Line 5 is around 40-45 minutes while Line 6 is around 30-35 minutes. 18 vs 15 trains make sense. Plus current bus ridership on the surface portion of Line 5 is lower than Line 6.
They can run the trains at 100km/h underground if they want for all we care, that doesnt make a lick of difference if the average speed of the line is still below the Bloor-Danforth Line. There's clearly something wrong if you're running 44+ trains on Line 2 vs 18 trains on Line 5. And they'll find that out the hard way if they stick to that plan by opening day (whenever that day will be).
 

Steve X

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They can run the trains at 100km/h underground if they want for all we care, that doesnt make a lick of difference if the average speed of the line is still below the Bloor-Danforth Line. There's clearly something wrong if you're running 44+ trains on Line 2 vs 18 trains on Line 5. And they'll find that out the hard way if they stick to that plan by opening day (whenever that day will be).
I believe planned service is 5-6 minutes headway in rush hour. Could be up to 10 minutes at night if there's no money. This offers well enough capacity for opening day.

The math works out easily. Currently the # of buses per hour operated in AM peak are as follows:
Mt Dennis - Keelesdale: 32A/D - 13
Keelesdale - Cedarvale: 32A/C/D - 23
Cedarvale - Eglinton: 32A/C - 18
Eglinton - Laird: 34A/C+51+54A/B+56A - 15+13+3+3= 34
Laird - Sunnybrook Park: 34A/C+51+54A/B = 31
Sunnybrook Park- Science Centre: 34A/C - 15
Science Centre - Kennedy: 34A - 10

Assume 12 trains per hour on Line 5.
Capacity: bus: 51, LRV: 2*165
Line 5 capacity with 18 trains = 3,960 ppdph
Busiest: Eglinton - Laird bus capacity with 34 buses = 1,734 ppdph
Least used: Science Centre - Kennedy with 10 buses = 510 ppdph

With 18 trains, there is more than twice the capacity of the current surface bus network on day one. The busiest section will see the least new transfers to the Line as the current bus network feeds into Eglinton. The question is where are these riders coming from? Unlike Ottawa, TTC will have plenty of trains to spare.
 

Coolstar

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They can run the trains at 100km/h underground if they want for all we care, that doesnt make a lick of difference if the average speed of the line is still below the Bloor-Danforth Line. There's clearly something wrong if you're running 44+ trains on Line 2 vs 18 trains on Line 5. And they'll find that out the hard way if they stick to that plan by opening day (whenever that day will be).
But that stems from the surface section of the line. The underground portion has farther stop spacing compared to Line 2.
 

Amare

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I believe planned service is 5-6 minutes headway in rush hour. Could be up to 10 minutes at night if there's no money. This offers well enough capacity for opening day.

The math works out easily. Currently the # of buses per hour operated in AM peak are as follows:
Mt Dennis - Keelesdale: 32A/D - 13
Keelesdale - Cedarvale: 32A/C/D - 23
Cedarvale - Eglinton: 32A/C - 18
Eglinton - Laird: 34A/C+51+54A/B+56A - 15+13+3+3= 34
Laird - Sunnybrook Park: 34A/C+51+54A/B = 31
Sunnybrook Park- Science Centre: 34A/C - 15
Science Centre - Kennedy: 34A - 10

Assume 12 trains per hour on Line 5.
Capacity: bus: 51, LRV: 2*165
Line 5 capacity with 18 trains = 3,960 ppdph
Busiest: Eglinton - Laird bus capacity with 34 buses = 1,734 ppdph
Least used: Science Centre - Kennedy with 10 buses = 510 ppdph

With 18 trains, there is more than twice the capacity of the current surface bus network on day one. The busiest section will see the least new transfers to the Line as the current bus network feeds into Eglinton. The question is where are these riders coming from? Unlike Ottawa, TTC will have plenty of trains to spare.
Very good analysis there, nice work.

Although there will be double the capacity from the current service provided, they really have to take into account the amount of riders who will be diverting to Eglinton instead of running down to the Bloor-Danforth line. I have my doubts that they're accurately projecting just how many riders will change their commute patterns.

Peak run times of 5-6 mins is also a bit odd as well. Part of me thinks that the TTC is trying to reduce the potential massive bottle neck at Yonge and Eglinton because they know its going to be a massive problem spot, but obviously they would never admit to that. So by reducing the amount of trains per hour flowing into Eglinton on Line 5, they would reduce the amount of riders being dumped onto the Yonge line which is jammed as soon as trains hit Eglinton at peak times.

But that stems from the surface section of the line. The underground portion has farther stop spacing compared to Line 2.
Sure while this is true, the surface portion of the line still slows the line down to the point that the overall average speed is still slower than the Bloor-Danforth line. Even with trains short-turning at Laird, the number of trains being run along the line just doesn't add up at all. If the number was something around 22-24 than I could make sense of it. But having 17-18 running is just questionable at best.
 

Streety McCarface

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All of these numbers are woefully inadequate with the exception of the Sheppard Line (Line 4).
Even I'm sceptical of those numbers for Sheppard long term. I was surveying the Sheppard subway Wednesday for peak hour ridership numbers, and I was surprised to see almost every train between 4:30 and 5:45 completely full — to the point in which people were left behind, and this was on a Wednesday in December. It's only a matter of time with all the development up there that they'll need to add a 5th train to serve during the peak hours. Sheppard can get by with 3 during the late nights, and 4 during midday (for frequency's sake), but it would never be able to do more than that during the off-peak sections. They can certainly do 5 trains, we have 6 and the off day that 2 trains aren't available won't be the end of the world for everyone.
If the two LRTs are identical, you would be right. Yes they should run more trains, especially in the subway portion. It's not really that flawed. Line 5 will operate with ATO at 80 km/h for two thirds of the line while Line 6 will operate at 50-60 km/h. The running time for Line 5 is around 40-45 minutes while Line 6 is around 30-35 minutes. 18 vs 15 trains make sense. Plus current bus ridership on the surface portion of Line 5 is lower than Line 6.

You'll be surprise how busy the 85 is along Line 4 in peak hours. Subway isn't the solution to everything.
You won't see a day when Line 6 operates faster than 50km/h, especially with all the intersections on Finch.

Comparing a bus that comes every 15 minutes to a subway that comes every 5 is absurd, especially when that subway train is crush-loaded.
 

innsertnamehere

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Line 6 will likely have a speed limit of 60km/h along it, though it's total average speed will be closer to 25km/h. It's slower running environment means you need more trains for the same capacity.

Line 5 will have half of it's trains turning around at Laird, which will increase capacity and frequency on the underground portion, which is where most transfers will be occurring. Other than Science Centre, I imagine most passengers east of that will be walk on passengers.



I seem to recall reading somewhere that peak hour service opening day is planned to be something like 3 minutes in the central section and 6 minutes on the surface section.
 

smallspy

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Comparing a bus that comes every 15 minutes to a subway that comes every 5 is absurd, especially when that subway train is crush-loaded.
He's not comparing them. His point is that, despite the subway running underneath it, there's still a need for a bus servicing the areas in between the stations. And that part of the 84 does pretty good in that regard.

Dan
 

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