Climate Change's Impact on Transit

[Reecemartin]

Given the fact that it seems we are getting longer and hotter summers with more heat waves and more variable winters I think its obvious that our climate is changing something which scientists are telling us we can expect more of.

A general question I was to pose is how do we adapt our rail systems for these conditions?

I know GO Transit deals with frequent sun kinks in hot weather due to the tensioning of the tracks so here are some questions:

• Is track tensioning changed between Winter and Summer typically?
• How will a greater temperature range affect service? (Toronto has a massive temperature range from <-20 C to >+30 C that's greater than 50 C of range!)
• One benefit of Subway that's heavily tunnelled vs. something like the Vancouver Skytrain is that there isn't the issue of direct sunlight heating the rails i.e. less kinking, how do we think at grade track will fare down the line?
• Does anyone have any proposed solutions to these issues? (Are there any kind of rails that have less of a thermal expansion issue?)

 

[sixrings]

Fake news and an attack on the detached lifestyles of suburbanites. Get off my lawn you lefty pinko.

 

[gabe]

Given the fact that it seems we are getting longer and hotter summers with more heat waves and more variable winters I think its obvious that our climate is changing something which scientists are telling us we can expect more of.

But are we? Last year we had a cooler more seasonal summer with only 8 days above 30 with lots of rain. This summer, It's really only been a couple months of intense heat. Toronto seems to have longer colder winters.

It’s official . . . Toronto breaks record for cold weather for Jan. 5

While some people have gone into hibernation, others braved the cold as Toronto experienced the coldest January 5 in city history.

The old record low of -20.6 C, set in 1959, was broken on Friday morning when temperatures stood at -23 C.

https://www.thestar.com/news/starwe...ecord-breaking-22-c-in-toronto-right-now.html

 

[W. K. Lis]

One local weather. Not climate.

Raise you several records for 2018. From link.

Heat wave smashes records around the world — a look at the sizzling temperatures

Dated July 4, 2018.

A persistent heat wave is gripping parts of the Northern Hemisphere and smashing weather records in Canada, the United States, Europe and the Middle East.

The scorching sun has brought deadly temperatures to some cities; in Montreal, 11 people have died in connection with the ongoing heat wave, according to city officials.

“This has been a prolonged and intense heat event across Eastern Canada,” Global News meteorologist Ross Hull said. “This has been the hottest stretch of weather in more than a decade and record-high temperatures have been shattered, especially in Montreal where record-high temperatures dating back to 1963 were broken on July 1 and 2.”

 

[W. K. Lis]

From an article dated July 31, 2018, from this link.

Montreal’s sizzling hot July 2018 nearly smashes 97-year-old heat record

The month of July is ending as it began — on a hot note.

It hasn’t been this hot in Montreal in close to a century.

The average temperature for July was 24.5 C. The last time it was hotter was in 1921, when the average was 24.7.

And while some like it hot, the heat has had a devastating impact.

The high temperatures have been blamed for 53 deaths in Montreal, as the city grappled with a heatwave at the beginning of the month.

 

[gabe]

Yes the world has seen record breaking heat because of climate change, like western Canada, but Toronto hasn't experienced it, we had a pretty typical summer here. We seem to get harsher winters, than summers.

It's been hot, but not as hot as you think: U of T expert breaks down Toronto's summer weather

Conor Anderson, a PhD candidate in the Climate Lab at the University of Toronto Scarborough, looked at the heat of this summer in Toronto in the context of the last 30 years in a recent blog post.


His findings? Temperatures between June 1 and July 15 made this year the third-warmest summer since 1988. And Anderson found that 2018, which saw three heat warnings, was actually not far above the average number of heat warnings over the last 30 years (2.72 warnings).

https://www.utoronto.ca/news/it-s-b...t-expert-breaks-down-toronto-s-summer-weather

 

[kEiThZ]

Climate change impacts every location differently.

Is there modeling data that definitively shows what the trend would be for Toronto?

 

[pstogios]

Yes the world has seen record breaking heat because of climate change, like western Canada, but Toronto hasn't experienced it, we had a pretty typical summer here. We seem to get harsher winters, than summers.

It's been hot, but not as hot as you think: U of T expert breaks down Toronto's summer weather

Conor Anderson, a PhD candidate in the Climate Lab at the University of Toronto Scarborough, looked at the heat of this summer in Toronto in the context of the last 30 years in a recent blog post.

You and that study’s authors are considering only a short period of time, wherein temperatures will surely drop to cold snaps and make casual observers make snap judgements like you have.

But this is not climate. To measure climate change, you need a far larger sample size of time.

When you consider the following data it is unmistakable that Toronto is experiencing warming. (I could only find data up to 2008; surely, the trends are more stark when considering up to 2018)

https://www.resilientcity.org/index.cfm?id=11276&modex=day&modexval=12/06/2009



“The data shows that on average, since 1940, Toronto has been experiencing an increase in mean temperature equivalent to 0.0159 degrees Celsius per year. Monthly minimum temperatures have been rising at a slightly higher rate, 0.0228 degrees Celsius per year, while monthly maximum temperatures have been increasing at a slightly lower rate of 0.0088 degrees Celsius per year.”

 

[W. K. Lis]

Don't forget that the Great Lakes moderate the weather and climate in southern Ontario. The lakes absorb the heat and release the heat SLOWLY.

The bad news is that in the early winter, we can expect more precipitation in the form of squaws or showers. It depends on the difference in temperature between the lakes and the ground in the lea of the winds blowing over the lakes. If the air over the ground is above freezing, it would be showers. If below freezing, it would be flurries or snow squaws.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Also, don't just consider the issue of heat - but also intensity of precipitation. We've already had multiple instances of extended subway service interruptions due to flooding from these events.

AoD

 

[pstogios]

Also, don't just consider the issue of heat - but also intensity of precipitation. We've already had multiple instances of extended subway service interruptions due to flooding from these events.

AoD

Absolutely. Climate change scientists believe that an important element not necessarily discussed enough is changing flows of moisture. This leads both to droughts and floods, as contradictory as that sounds. Due to increase air temperatures, moisture will evaporate more rapidly from the ground, leading to drought, but also leading to more raincloud formation and subsequently more frequent and intense rainfalls.

I couldn't find any data on this but certainly anecdotally, Toronto is already experiencing increased flooding due to more frequent and intense rainstorms.

 

[gabe]

And as I said the range in increasing, that's half the problem. The winters get colder too

They sure do, colder and longer.

Why has it been so cold this winter in Toronto? U of T experts break it down

https://www.utoronto.ca/news/why-has-it-been-so-cold-winter-toronto-u-t-experts-break-it-down

 

[hw621]

AC for subway stations

 

[lenaitch]

I remember as a kid growing up in Toronto in the '50s and '60s that winter was, well, winter. A white Christmas was the norm (not guaranteed but usual), I played league hockey on a natural ice outdoor rink and got really cold pumping gas at the local Shell station. No one shoveled out the bus stops; you clambered over the pounded down snowbank and you stood in line for your bus at the open air bus bays at the Eglinton subway railhead.

 

[sikandar]

This was a good study done a few years ago that has so far correctly predicted extreme rainfall events in the summer. Luckily, it also predicts a pretty good picture overall for Toronto.

https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/u...re-Weather-and-Climate-Drivers-Study-2012.pdf