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Canadians optimistic about home buying: RBC

khris

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Canadians optimistic about home buying: RBC

Almost two-thirds of Canadians think the time is right to buy a house despite the ongoing global recession, according to a new survey released Wednesday.

RBC said 65 per cent of people in this country term the current housing sector a "buyer's market." More than a quarter of Canadians said they would look to buy a new house within the next two years.

That optimism is despite the current economic environment: Canada's GDP dropped by an annualized 3.4 per cent in the last three months of 2008 and home prices were down more than 11 per cent in January 2009 compared to a year earlier.

"The current economic environment does not appear to have dampened Canadians' overall confidence in the housing market," said Karen Leggett, head of RBC's Home Equity Financing.

"Canadians continue to have an overwhelming belief in the long-term value of a home and we're seeing this in the buying intentions of many first time homebuyers this year," she said.

Indeed, the current interest in purchasing a new home was four percentage points higher than the 23 per cent for the same time in 2008 and is at its highest level since 2007.

Falling home prices
One reason for the relatively positive outlook among Canadian homeowners and potential purchasers was the belief that slumping home values will drop even further in 2009.

More than half — 54 per cent — of Canadians said they think housing prices will be lower this year than they were at the end of 2008.

Cheaper prices combined with falling interest rates — down 50 basis points after March's rate cut by the Bank of Canada —indicate that people believe they will be able to pay less for a relatively valuable asset that will begin rise in net worth as the economy recovers.

Of course, that scenario only plays out as the economy recovers

In another recent survey, a majority of Americans said they think the North American recession is getting worse, not better, a situation that could pushing home values down further and delay a decision to buy a new home.

Regional differences
Alberta remains the most optimistic place in Canada for home buying in the near future.

In the oil-rich province, 35 per cent of residents said they will purchase a new abode this year or in 2010. That level of buying interest contrasted sharply with Quebec where only 22 per cent of those surveyed said they would buy a home in 2009 or the year after.

In Ontario, 30 per cent of people asked expressed an interest in purchasing a new house.

Ipsos Reid conducted the poll between Jan. 6 and Jan. 9, 2009. The online survey of 2,026 adult Canadians is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Source

I wasn't sure which forum to put this article, as it is a Canada related article, not just GTA.
 
Canada's banking system, the bedrock of the financial system, isn't messed up. So despite the worldwide meltdown, its probably not a bad time to be buying homes for those with stable jobs.

Canada really has avoided some of the worst of this financial meltdown, European banks have went down with the US.

Its bitterly ironic that European governments and banks hedged everything on the US, while Canada took a more independent approach despite the close geography. I love how the only bank that made a particularly bad decision was TD Bank's investments into some of America's housing debacle, but I think those losses have already been handled and even TD isn't doing particularly bad relative to the major banks around the world.

Canada is in a great position to weather this major recession/mild depression.
 
Canada's banking system, the bedrock of the financial system, isn't messed up. So despite the worldwide meltdown, its probably not a bad time to be buying homes for those with stable jobs.

But how do you really know? A week before Bear Stearns closed they were all saying how great things were... ditto for Lehmans, AIG, etc. The point is, these banks and big corporations lie and hide their losses until it's no longer sustainable.

And whose job is stable? We can all find ourselves out of work tomorrow, no one can predict these things. I think it'll get much worse before it starts getting better, now is a time to save
 
It's never a good or bad time to buy your own home. This is a personal decision based on your own situation. It's just a bad time to buy your own home as "an investment".

What I mean is that there is no upside to purchasing at the moment. Your home will likely deflate at an average of more than 2 percent per year during the next standard 5 year mortgage term. This will evaporate any forced savings or equity you would have built up during this period. Strong inflationary pressures will drive rates up in the middle-long term. So people buying today will build no equity and stand to be dinged with significant interest rate increases and hence reduction in their standard of living down the road. People believe it's a good time to buy because conditions permit many to buy after a period where it was not possible for them. The error in logic is just because it is possible to buy this does not follow that it is a good time to buy.

The best time to buy "as an investment" is in a period where market activity is slow, interest rates are high and prices are low. This is speculation but we may see such a period 5 years or so from now.
 

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