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Canada legal cannabis - prediction boom or bust?

Admiral Beez

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Looking at my own circle of family, friends and co-workers, almost no one smokes tobacco or smokes cannabis. My near-adult teenage kids and their pals are taught from a young age to avoid drugs, heck my kids think sugar will kill them, let alone booze. When I was a teenager in 1980s Mississauga, everyone was toking in social settings, but today the men are solo gaming in the basement and the women are on their phones, so the social scene is different.

Anyway, maybe I'm living in a bubble, but I'm not sure there's going to be a sustainable upward curve and growth in the Canadian legal cannabis biz. Instead, I'm thinking that thousands of folks will rush to open retail shops or online ops and apps, and after an initial rush, the demand wanes and the business model collapses.

Canada's great pot boom could be headed for a giant bust
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/bus...-boom-could-be-headed-for-a-giant-bust-for-2/

Thoughts?
 
Yeah, I doubt that.

While some of the corporate speculative investments in the sector may not end up panning out (there will inevitably be winners, and probably many losers), there will always be a market for pot. The issue, as identified in the article you posted, is more one of how effectively legal growers and sellers of recreational cannabis will be able to compete with illegal dealers, given the proposed regulatory framework. The rules may need to change. I'd be surprised if they didn't. But market collapse such that all, or almost all, legal dispensaries disappear? Not going to happen.

And while I am not talking about your kids specifically, if we had a dime for every parent who believed that their young adult children "never touched the stuff", we'd be rich.
 
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And while I am not talking about your kids specifically, if we had a dime for every parent who believed that their young adult children "never touched the stuff", we'd be rich.
Lol, true. But you can't run a tobacco company without frequent, dare I say it, addicted customers, social smokers won't pay the bills. I imagine the same goes for cannabis.
 
Lol, true. But you can't run a tobacco company without frequent, dare I say it, addicted customers, social smokers won't pay the bills. I imagine the same goes for cannabis.

I'm not sure that's a valid comparison, given that completely different addictive nature of cannabis versus nicotine.

Somehow, despite everything from social disapprobation to the full force of criminal law, cannabis has remained a popular substance. Our new laws change the rules, they haven’t introduced pot to Canada for the first time.
 
This is huge for Canada. It's not just the retail, think of the supply chain and the horizontal businesses. The edibles become legal next year and there is plenty of money going into Food Science R&D. Companies are working on Cannabis beer! Canadian businesses will have first mover advantage. After looking at Canada, legalization will spread across the world and Canadian companies will have the knowledge to take advantage of those opportunities. Yuuuuuuge!!!

On the government side, reduced need for police enforcement, lower jail population, reduced crime, higher tax receipts. Lower costs + increased revenue.... yuuuuuge!!!
 
Well, it might not do so well, but for a completely different reason: this is some fuddy duddy legalisation scheme.
Way too many draconian regulations and rules surrounding this semi-legalisation.

The black market will not die given how things are looking to be implemented.
There won't be growth in users. At least not any even minutely significant amount. If anyone's holding back from ingesting ganja because it's illegal currently then they have no business messing with psychotropics; they're liable to experience anxiety attacks.

When posession of personal amounts of all drugs was decriminalised in Portugal, usage rates went........down.

There's no evidence of correlation between the legality of a psychotropic and rates of use. At all. Anywhere. Though, if anything, the correlation might be negative. Whaaaat.

I predict people will rightfully ignore the rule about smoking in public and will continue to get their ganja from where they always have.
They messed up. It should have been made as equally available (or more) as alcohol and nicotine, two drugs of actual danger.

No law that treats marijuana more harshly than alcohol and nicotine is logically, morally, and ethically valid.
 
Lol, true. But you can't run a tobacco company without frequent, dare I say it, addicted customers, social smokers won't pay the bills. I imagine the same goes for cannabis.

Alcohol companies are doing fine. Are you suggesting that the majority of alcohol users are addicted customers?
 
Well, it might not do so well, but for a completely different reason: this is some fuddy duddy legalisation scheme.
Way too many draconian regulations and rules surrounding this semi-legalisation.

The black market will not die given how things are looking to be implemented.
There won't be growth in users. At least not any even minutely significant amount. If anyone's holding back from ingesting ganja because it's illegal currently then they have no business messing with psychotropics; they're liable to experience anxiety attacks.

When posession of personal amounts of all drugs was decriminalised in Portugal, usage rates went........down.

There's no evidence of correlation between the legality of a psychotropic and rates of use. At all. Anywhere. Though, if anything, the correlation might be negative. Whaaaat.

I predict people will rightfully ignore the rule about smoking in public and will continue to get their ganja from where they always have.
They messed up. It should have been made as equally available (or more) as alcohol and nicotine, two drugs of actual danger.

No law that treats marijuana more harshly than alcohol and nicotine is logically, morally, and ethically valid.


I agree it's not the best legalisation scheme, but the market will get there. There will be adjustments. There will be a transition period. The market will mature and the majority of people will be buying their favorite MJ brands from the local MJ store based on convenience. Whatever the rate of usage will be, it will stabilize to something and that will be better than today's situation. It may not be as good as it could be but it's better. If usage goes down, that's a good thing anyways.
 
If there’s a low-dose THC pill that gives a good night’s sleep, a lot of ageing boomers will buy it.
 

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