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By-Elections in Quebec

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Hydrogen

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Not too much of a surprise, but a good day for the Conservatives and a bad day for the Liberals in Quebec.



Tories win Roberval-Lac-St-Jean
BRUCE CHEADLE
Canadian Press
September 17, 2007 at 10:43 PM EDT

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper's 18-month courtship of Quebec paid off richly Monday night when the Conservatives claimed a by-election win on separatist turf while watching a hand-picked Liberal star flame out in Montreal.

New Democrats won just their second seat ever in the province.

The outcome of the three Quebec by-elections — called by Mr. Harper while he left four other vacant federal seats unfilled elsewhere in the country — played out almost as well as the Tory prime minister could have hoped.

Conservative candidate Denis Lebel, the popular mayor of Roberval, dethroned the Bloc Québécois candidate in Roberval-Lac-St-Jean for the first time since the general election of 1988.

The Bloc maintained its long-held seat in St-Hyacinthe-Bagot, holding off a strong Tory challenge that relegated the Liberal candidate to single-digit support.

And in Outremont — a century old bastion of Montreal Liberalism — Liberal Leader Stephane Dion saw his hand-picked star candidate soundly trounced by the NDP's Thomas Mulcair, a former Quebec environment minister.

With well over half the polls reporting, Mr. Mulcair had almost doubled the vote count of Liberal candidate Jocelyn Coulon.

It was the first win in Quebec by the New Democrats since 1990 and just the second NDP MP ever elected in the province.

Outremont had fallen out of Liberal hands only once previously since 1935.

While nothing in the outcome of Monday's vote will change the balance of power in the minority parliament, the results were as deflating for the Liberals as they were energizing for the Conservatives and New Democrats, and promise to inject a fresh dynamic into the fall session of Parliament which begins with a throne speech on Oct. 16.

The Conservatives now hold 126 seats, the Liberals 96, the Bloc Québécois 49 and the New Democrats 30. Three seats are held by Independent MPs and four remain vacant.

Mr. Dion, already off to a low-profile start since being selected Liberal leader last December, faced immediate second-guessing from his Quebec wing.

One Liberal MP went out of his way to point out that the Liberals' current seat-count in Quebec — 12 — is the lowest since Confederation.

"There are going to have to be changes in the leader's entourage," said the Liberal MP.

"We can't go ahead like this into the next elections."

Another Liberal MP agreed that it's time for a few changes.

"This is a tough break," said Ottawa-area MP Mauril Belanger.

"But this could be good for us if it helps us make some adjustments in time for the next elections."

The military mission in Afghanistan, often cited as Mr. Harper's Achilles heel in Quebec, barely made the radar in any of the three by-election races — although Mr. Mulcair may have benefited in urban Montreal from the NDP's consistent message of immediate withdrawal.

The Conservative game plan was clear. By focusing on Quebec, Mr. Harper hoped to highlight ongoing Liberal woes in the province while giving a cautious road test to his own minority government's mid-term popularity.

Mr. Harper's heads-I-win, tails-you-lose political gambit paid immediate dividends when Mr. Lebel stormed to a quick lead he would not relinquish in the Saguenay region riding north of Quebec City.

With most of the polls reporting, Mr. Lebel had more than doubled the vote count of Bloc candidate Céline Houde.

The Tories won 10 seats in Quebec in the 2006 general election and considered Roberval the 11th that got away. No longer.
 
I think Dion was the worst leader the Libs could have voted in, and now it's starting to show in the by-elections. They should have voted in Kennedy as leader who I think would have done well, or perhaps even Rae, regardless of his poor or unlucky time as premier. Dion was the worst choice, even than Iggy.
 
Byelections should not be over-emphasized, but when a Liberal candidate in Quebec goes down to "single digit support", they have a real problem.

Dion seems like a nice enough guy, and is certainly sincere. But he does not have the communication skills that all three of the other party leaders seem to have. Layton is a fairly charismatic guy, and Duceppe handles himself well in both languages. Even Harper, a bit charisma-challenged, comes across fairly well once he starts to speak. I don't see the Liberals replacing Dion immediately, but the knives will be out after the next general election, unless he can somehow manage a major turnaround.
 
The Liberals have held Outremont for 80 years. Losing it looks bad.

On the other hand, the Conservatives took one seat and almost too a second.

Dion is the compromise (and compromised) leader. He won't last too long.
 
Dion is the compromise (and compromised) leader. He won't last too long.
The Liberals now have their Mesiah in the son of Trudeau. The coming Federal election will be the end of Dion, and may also crush the Bloc. IMO, Quebecers are tired of being in perpetual oppostion in Ottawa, and the Conservatives have been saying the right things to appeal to Quebec. I imagine the red-neck crowd in Alberta and the west is annoyed, but they'd always vote Conservative, so there's no need to campaign to them.
 
I don't see Justin Trudeau as a future leader. Once he opens his mouth people will quickly realize that what he mostly shares with his late father is the same last name. Not a bad guy, just not leadership calibre.

The election of Mulcair is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, the NDP rarely do well in Quebec (putting aside Layton's blitherings of what Quebec society is), so I would assume that his election is partly a protest vote against Dion's "hand-picked" candidate for the riding. Yet at the same time, Mulcair has earned some credibility and respect, and in a "liberal" riding like Outremont, it would have been unlikely to see a conservative win. Turn out was relatively low, but by-election turn out is typically low. Yet one has to wonder how many Liberal supporters stayed away on purpose.

Interesting that Mauril Belanger was quoted about the next election. He was a big Iggy suporter in the last leadership race.

If it wasn't for Afghanistan, I think the Conservatives would actually be eyeing majority territory for the next election. Dion should be eyeing a return to acedemia.
 
If it wasn't for Afghanistan, I think the Conservatives would actually be eyeing majority territory for the next election. Dion should be eyeing a return to acedemia.
I think Harper will tie up the Afghanistan issue before an election is called or forced. Harper has already been saying publically and internationally that Canada's contribution will not pass the set 2009 end date unless Parliament agrees. It's almost 2008 now, and the next Federal election is set for October 19, 2009, which is after the February 2009 pull out date from Afghanistan. Thus, if Harper can hold on, the mission will be well and done before the election, making Afghanistan a non-issue.
 
He was out campaigning during these by-elections - where he always sounded more exasperated than passionate.
 
Oh, he didn't admit he was wrong. He said that he was right to support the war then and he's right to oppose it now. He claims that his opinion didn't change, instead circumstances changed around him. It's the people who opposed the war before it started who were wrong and ideologically-driven.
 
It'd be interesting to see the Canadian Liberals get into the same situation as the British Tories over the past decade: after eons of party leaders that had their inevitable turn as PM, a revolving door of no-hopes...
 
Dion is finished. His excuse that people voted for the NDP to protest Conservative position instead of voting Liberal is absurd. The Liberals are in a tough spot. If they dump Dion prior to the next election no one will take the party seriously during the next election. If they keep him, the next election is an instant write off that may oblitirate them to third party status.
 

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