The 6,070 new condominium apartment sales in Q1-2012 were the highest of any first quarter on record for the Toronto CMA, however the average of 18.0 sales per project was lower than Q1-2011 (18.3), Q1-2010 (20.4) and Q1-2002 (23.6). Another record was set in Q1-2012 for active projects (338) and total active universe (84,698 units).
New Condominium Market
A total of 29,059 new condominium units have sold over the past 12 months in the Toronto CMA. Trepidation among players in the industry has never been higher, but neither have sales, with the 6,070 new sales in Q1-2012 setting a new record for the first quarter.
The Resale Condominium Market
Although the resale condominium universe continues to grow each quarter, reaching 219,019 units in Q1-2012, quarterly volume has not grown exponentially with market size. A total 3,888 resale transactions occurred in the first quarter, a 2.5% drop from Q4-2011 (3,987 resales) and 1.6% lower than Q1-2011's 3,952 resales.
Future Condominium Projects
As many as 42 projects and 11,109 units could launch in Q1-2012, with 27 of those projects located in the '416' area. As many as 35,000 units could come to market in 2012, which would represent a high for the Toronto CMA (over last year's total of approximately 28,000).
At some point with us hitting new highs year after year there has to be plateauing or even falling:
the numbers to me say the following: Sales the highest of any first 1/4 on record. But too many projects as evidenced by falling % of sales, more new condos coming on line this year.
Resales are plateaued which implies either there is not product or more likely there are not end users moving. Means likely more than ever it investor/speculators driving PRECON.
Also, the rush to market of product with possibly upwards of 35000 new units and Trepidation referred to suggests to me developers are rushing to market as they know the end has been reached. (The last kick at the cat as it were... no disrespect to my feline friends.) There may be another couple of percentage points to be had but those buying this year and last year are late to the party in my opinion and will not make any money. Whether they lose money remains to be seen. I believe they will.