It seems CMHC more or less agrees with me.
Prices to hold next year: CMHC
The housing market may be a boring place for the next year, according to CMHC, as the number of starts remains near current levels and resale prices hold steady.
In its fourth quarter market update, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said mortgage rates would likely remain at historically low levels at least until the last half of 2012. The housing market’s fate is largely tied to rates, the agency said.
“Ontario, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia’s growth will be the strongest, while Prince Edward Island and British Columbia are forecast to see modest growth,” CMHC said. “The other provinces, on the other hand, are expected to see decreases. In 2012, housing starts are forecast to increase in British Columbia, Alberta and Manitoba.”
Other highlights from the report:
Â· Posted mortgage rates will remain relatively flat until late 2012. For 2012, the one-year posted mortgage rate is expected to be in the 3.4 to 3.8 per cent range, while the five-year posted mortgage rate is forecast to be within 5.2 to 5.7 per cent.
Â· Single starts have rebounded coming out of the recession. After an increase in the third quarter of this year, they are expected to moderate before rising later in 2012.
Â· Since the beginning of 2011, new listings steadily outpaced existing home sales. As a consequence, the resale market has moved from sellers’ to balanced market conditions.
That was pretty much the prediction for 2011 too.