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44th Canadian Federal Election

Jonny5

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While real, the observation, without detail could be quite misleading.

Let's look at Eastern Ontario........the place that elected Randy Hillier and outside of Kingston and Ottawa is generally true blue, so to speak.

In Hastings-Lennox Additington you have 45% for the Conservative, vs 35% Lib and 11% NDP

Even Lanark-Frontenac, which went 49% Conservative still had 42% for the Libs/NDP

Haldimond-Norfolk was very similar in the rural south-west, where Leslyn Louis won for the Conservatives (notably, a Black woman)

Meanwhile in (sub) urban regions, the Conservatives pulled 40% in Oakville, and 39% in Mississauga-Lakeshore, they even managed 25% (2nd place) in Toronto-St. Pauls.

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Again, not to suggest that this difference isn't real, but media coverage of same, and some research into it, can be highly exaggerative.
I think what should be highlighted is the trend, not the absolute end result.
The trend is now longstanding and continuing. It's not a blip. Where are those ridings 20, 30, or 40 years ago compared to now and where are they going? I don't think there's any reason to believe they will reverse the trend and become less conservative. The important point is what would it now take for the Liberals or Conservatives to flip ridings in places like Haldimond-Norfolk or Toronto Centre. It used to be common for them to be at least competitive, but we appear now to be at a point where more and more ridings are calcified to one party, and trending to be even more calcified, never again to be competititve without there also being some huge and fundamental shift in Canadian society. The base in Haldimond-Norfolk and Toronto Centre appears to be at least 40% aligned-for-life with one party, so that leaves a very small margin for any other party to pull together a win. It seems like these trends are reinforcing a party status quo everywhere. So what would be the trigger for Conservatives to win Toronto Centre, or the Liberals to win Haldimond-Norfolk? How do you turn some or any of the 40% who automatically vote for that incumbent party every election without question?
 
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Northern Light

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I think what should be highlighted is the trend, not the absolute end result.
The trend is now longstanding and continuing. It's not a blip. Where were those ridings 20, 30, 40, years ago compared to now and where are they going? I bet there's a high negative correlation in the change in support to ridings like Davenport, or Toronto Centre. The important point I think is what would it now take for the Liberals or Conservatives to flip risings in places like Haldimond-Norfolk or Toronto Centre. It used to be common for them to be competitive, are we at a point where more and more ridings are calcified to one party, never again to be competititve until some huge and fundamental shift happens in Canadian society? It seems like these trends are reinforcing that everywhere.

I get you.

Though I would point out, the last time Conservatives (incl PCs) held a downtown Toronto riding would be the Mulroney years, which is over 30 years ago, so the phenomena isn't that recent in the most extreme ridings.

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That said, the above is a failing of FPTP and a compelling reason to ditch it.
 
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adma

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I think what should be highlighted is the trend, not the absolute end result.
The trend is now longstanding and continuing. It's not a blip. Where are those ridings 20, 30, or 40 years ago compared to now and where are they going? I don't think there's any reason to believe they will reverse the trend and become less conservative. The important point is what would it now take for the Liberals or Conservatives to flip ridings in places like Haldimond-Norfolk or Toronto Centre. It used to be common for them to be at least competitive, but we appear now to be at a point where more and more ridings are calcified to one party, and trending to be even more calcified, never again to be competititve without there also being some huge and fundamental shift in Canadian society. The base in Haldimond-Norfolk and Toronto Centre appears to be at least 40% aligned-for-life with one party, so that leaves a very small margin for any other party to pull together a win. It seems like these trends are reinforcing a party status quo everywhere. So what would be the trigger for Conservatives to win Toronto Centre, or the Liberals to win Haldimond-Norfolk? How do you turn some or any of the 40% who automatically vote for that incumbent party every election without question?
First of all, there aren't *that* many rock-hard Haldimand-Norfolks out there, when all is said and done. By comparison, the 905 belt can be *very* tricky in its shifts.

Secondly, as it now stands, the Conservatives aren't the alternative option in Toronto Centre, the NDP is. (All the more so now that Rosedale's no longer part of the riding)
 

W. K. Lis

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"The Constitution of Canada requires that federal electoral districts be reviewed after each decennial (10-year) census to reflect changes and movements in Canada's population. The next federal redistribution process will begin in September 2021. A representation order describing and naming Canada's future electoral districts is expected to be completed in September 2023. Changes to electoral districts will be applied in the first general election called at least seven months after the representation order is proclaimed; we believe that these changes will not come into effect until April 1, 2024, at the earliest."

From link.
 

Admiral Beez

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Secondly, as it now stands, the Conservatives aren't the alternative option in Toronto Centre, the NDP is. (All the more so now that Rosedale's no longer part of the riding)
I live in Toronto Centre and voted NDP (previously voted GPC and Con),, but they don’t stand a chance here. Especially if the LPC smartly continues to run BIPOC candidates, ideally female and the Greens continue to split the “progressive“ vote. Mind you, the LPC could front Karla Homolka and they’d still win Toronto Centre hands down.
 
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adma

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I live in Toronto Centre and voted NDP (previously voted GPC and Con),, but they don’t stand a chance here. Especially if the LPC smartly continues to run BIPOC candidates, ideally female and the Greens continue to split the “progressive“ vote. Mind you, the LPC could front Karla Homolka and they’d still win Toronto Centre hands down.
What I'm stating here is that if there *is* any, it'd be the NDP. And as proof of "never say never": 2018, provincially.
 

adma

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In 2019 the Green Party came much closer than the NDP. Had the Greens ran an effective leader and candidate in Toronto Centre they might have win in 2019.

If you're talking about the 2019, you're talking about the general election, and the NDP was ahead 22-7 there. The byelection was an exceptional circumstance--were Annamie Paul not newly-elected and not-yet-imploded Green leader, it most likely would've been a NDP-2nd/Green-single-digit situation once again. And of course, 2021 was like 2019 all over again.

Annamie Paul isn't reflective of the "true" non-Liberal dynamic here--Suze Morrison is.
 

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