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44th Canadian Federal Election

mjl08

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I'm hearing a lot of people say no there will be no election until late October, because that's when the pensions kick in for all the MPs who were elected in 2015.

Prepare yourself. We will likely have a federal, provincial and municipal election within a 12 month period.
 
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Northern Light

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I'm hearing a lot of people say no there will be no election until late October, because that's when the pensions kick in for all the MPs who were elected in 2015.

Prepare yourself. We will likely have a federal, provincial and municipal election within a 12 month period.

I had originally heard late October; though for different reasons.

Lately I've been hearing musings about an earlier writ drop.

My info from Ottawa is a bit fuzzier than from more local sources, so I'm not sure how much weight to accord to any given date.

But any which way, we can assume a Federal election in the next 4 months (prior to Halloween) is almost a lock.
 

Videodrome

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I think a fall election would make sense for various reasons. The pensions as previously mentioned and the vaccine campaign will have likely been quite successful.
 

Richard White

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I think a fall election would make sense for various reasons. The pensions as previously mentioned and the vaccine campaign will have likely been quite successful.

They will have to have it in October or sooner to avoid the Christmas holidays and then the nasty weather in January.

As someone who has done a couple winter election campaigns as a canvasser, I can safely say they are no fun. Getting people out to vote in the winter is impossible.
 

Richard White

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One thing I will note though is that the Green Party is pretty much stuck with Annamie Paul at this point.

If there is talk of an election in October, there is no way for the Green Party to fire, elect and promote a new leader before the writ is dropped. They have two choices which are to stick with her or go into an election without a permanent leader before a leadership election is held.

Trudeau likely knows this and I can see him using it to his advantage.
 

mjl08

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One thing I will note though is that the Green Party is pretty much stuck with Annamie Paul at this point.

If there is talk of an election in October, there is no way for the Green Party to fire, elect and promote a new leader before the writ is dropped. They have two choices which are to stick with her or go into an election without a permanent leader before a leadership election is held.

Trudeau likely knows this and I can see him using it to his advantage.

I could see Elizabeth May jumping to the Liberals, maybe with the promise of a cabinet position.
 

Richard White

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I could see Elizabeth May jumping to the Liberals, maybe with the promise of a cabinet position.

Worked for Bill Blair.

I can see her jumping to the liberals as well. Normally I would think she would go NDP but we are far from the Jack Layton days and there is more help for the environment from Trudeau than there is Singh.
 

Jonny5

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I could see Elizabeth May jumping to the Liberals, maybe with the promise of a cabinet position.
I could also see her at a press conference in a month or so from now where she "agrees to take over as leader again in their hour of need" and the Green Party quickly carries on as though May never stepped down and Anamie Paul never existed.
 

DSC

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I think that is more likely. She can be a bit of a loose cannon who ends up apologizing or over explaining what she meant. Not sure the Liberals want/need that.
From everything I hear she likes to be in control (which may be part of Ms Paul's problem) so running 'her own Party" suited her: I doubt the Libs would want another Jodie Wilson-Raybould!
 

mjl08

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Until the Conservatives can turn Peel, Halton and Durham blue, they are toast.

E6Jjph-XoAARmwE.jpg
 

afransen

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Not sure the Green party really factors into their calculations.
This. They are largely irrelevant. GPC disarray is just a cherry on top on the bad footing the CPC has put themselves on. I honestly don't see this hurting the GPC much either, unless they have a melt-down during the campaign. Most Canadians are not paying attention to GPC internecine squabbles.
 

Jonny5

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Apparently there was a Green Party executive meeting last night at which they discussed not simply removing Paul as leader, but revoking her party membership entirely. Paul was not invited to the meeting.


The article implies that donations have run dry, and they have very little free cash left, though it doesn't fully elaborate on that point. It goes on to suggest that things are so dire that they may not be able to field or fund a full slate of candidates across Canada. If that's the case, there could be rumblings about not inviting the party for the leaders debates.
 

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