2023 Ontario Liberal Leadership Race

[yrt+viva=1system]

First things first - is Crombie going to suck out all the oxygen from the leadership race and become a fait accompli? I am not sure how popular she is among the party faithful.

AoD

This is the problem for the Liberal party, party faithful may have their favourites but the voting public has the final say. Pick a Del Duca type because they can sell membership and you can kiss your chances goodbye. We're in the era of populism and fast social media, everything that was in the old playbook needs to go out the window.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Bonnie has entered the race.
This will be Del Duca part II, prove me wrong.

 

[Northern Light]

This is the problem for the Liberal party, party faithful may have their favourites but the voting public has the final say. Pick a Del Duca type because they can sell membership and you can kiss your chances goodbye. We're in the era of populism and fast social media, everything that was in the old playbook needs to go out the window.

I think this might be a bit of an over-reach.

Its certainly true that the medium by which the message is communicated is evolving, (less TV more internet/social); and that we are moderately more polarized than say a decade ago.

However, I think its important to say that populists were elected in this country more than a hundred years ago; and people who are anything but (see John Tory) have been elected in the last 12 months.

One has to be careful not to treat a possible trend, as some immutable new reality.

****

The essence of the successful politician is not one uniform style, or substantive position.

Its the ability to be broadly relatable, trustable, have some appealing political planks and few that are real clunkers and then to have team that can execute in getting the message out, in an appealing way, to those who can be persuaded to lend a vote.

There will also, always, be outliers to any trend or norm.

 

[Northern Light]

Bonnie has entered the race.
This will be Del Duca part II, prove me wrong.

An interesting assertion.

I'm not a Crombie fan, particularly. She was a Hazel disciple which should say enough.

***

That said, Hazel was electable, she proved as much; and Crombie has been thus far as well.

Does that translate to the provincial level?

I don't know, to be honest. But i wouldn't describe Bonnie's shortcomings as those of Del Duca.

She's not a policy wonk; she does have a decent smile and a warm, at times, demeanor. Personally, she gives me real estate agent vibes; but the reality is she's got a lot of A-list connections across teams red and blue, and corporate Canada, and she's a better public speaker than Del Duca for sure.

What I might argue is that she is right-centre, and her politics aren't that far off of Ford's in many ways, but they're packaged a bit differently. A bit softer in tone, a bit more Parent-Teacher Association career mom, vs belligerent drop out.

She's also done post-secondary BA Poly Sci and MBA.

But still......I think her biggest disadvantage might be that her voter pool overlaps with Ford's.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

An interesting assertion.

I'm not a Crombie fan, particularly. She was a Hazel disciple which should say enough.

***

That said, Hazel was electable, she proved as much; and Crombie has been thus far as well.

Does that translate to the provincial level?

I don't know, to be honest. But i wouldn't describe Bonnie's shortcomings as those of Del Duca.

She's not a policy wonk; she does have a decent smile and a warm, at times, demeanor. Personally, she gives me real estate agent vibes; but the reality is she's got a lot of A-list connections across teams red and blue, and corporate Canada, and she's a better public speaker than Del Duca for sure.

What I might argue is that she is right-centre, and her politics aren't that far off of Ford's in many ways, but they're packaged a bit differently. A bit softer in tone, a bit more Parent-Teacher Association career mom, vs belligerent drop out.

She's also done post-secondary BA Poly Sci and MBA.

But still......I think her biggest disadvantage might be that her voter pool overlaps with Ford's.

You're a smart guy, and so is she.

She has come out against housing on too many occasions.

She backed Ford more than once for reelection.

She's ruining Peel Region over political power.

I can't support this at all.


The Ontario Liberals need to let go of their association with housing developers as much as Ford does. until they do, they will continue to lose.

 

[smably]

Committing to keeping her hands off the greenbelt (a Liberal legacy!) seems like a no-brainer, such an easy win, and a quick way to pick up some votes from red Tories who are mad about Ford's greenbelt flip-flop, and yet...?

Bonnie Crombie leaves door open to developing some parts of Greenbelt as she launches Ontario Liberal leadership bid

There may be ‘justification’ in developing certain parts of the Greenbelt, but any decision requires consultation, says Ms. Crombie

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[Northern Light]

You're a smart guy, and so is she.

She has come out against housing on too many occasions.

She backed Ford more than once for reelection.

She's ruining Peel Region over political power.

I can't support this at all.

I agree completely on this part.

The Ontario Liberals need to let go of their association with housing developers as much as Ford does. until they do, they will continue to lose.

I'm less sure about this part. I don't think it was their association w/housing developers that drove them from office or that that in particular was Del Duca's downfall. Though, the Kirby GO related nonsense certainly wasn't helpful.

However, I think the Libs got turfed because of perceived insincerity; because of fatigue with a long-lived administration, the privatization of Hydro One and rocketing power bills had a fair hand in there too.

Del Duca lost, I think, because he didn't clearly articulate a vision for Ontario that was compelling. That's partly a substantive issue, their platform was all over-the-map hodgepodge; and partly Del Duca himself who just didn't come across well.

His public speaking isn't that strong, and the packaging of him was off as well.

Can Crombie shift that? I don't know.

But I do agree on all the substantive knocks you listed; I just think the average voter doesn't know all that stuff and unless the media choose to make a big deal of it......may never know.

 

[afransen]

Bonnie has entered the race.
This will be Del Duca part II, prove me wrong.

She is much better than Del Duca, who has barely detectable charisma. He looked bad even next to Ford's wooden, 'aw shucks folks' poor communication style.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

She is much better than Del Duca, who has barely detectable charisma. He looked bad even next to Ford's wooden, 'aw shucks folks' poor communication style.

Del Duca in a skirt.

I agree completely on this part.



I'm less sure about this part. I don't think it was their association w/housing developers that drove them from office or that that in particular was Del Duca's downfall. Though, the Kirby GO related nonsense certainly wasn't helpful.

However, I think the Libs got turfed because of perceived insincerity; because of fatigue with a long-lived administration, the privatization of Hydro One and rocketing power bills had a fair hand in there too.

Del Duca lost, I think, because he didn't clearly articulate a vision for Ontario that was compelling. That's partly a substantive issue, their platform was all over-the-map hodgepodge; and partly Del Duca himself who just didn't come across well.

His public speaking isn't that strong, and the packaging of him was off as well.

Can Crombie shift that? I don't know.

But I do agree on all the substantive knocks you listed; I just think the average voter doesn't know all that stuff and unless the media choose to make a big deal of it......may never know.

Sadly I agree. Ontarians only seem to get mad when teachers are on strike.

Already she's walking back comments...

 

[afransen]

This will be a long leadership race. Hopefully Bonny is well tested by it and it gives the other contenders and chance to gain traction. I knew from the day Del Duca was selected as leader he would not find success, I think Crombie has a better chance but I have to see more from her. I wouldn't necessarily hold her Mississauga mayor positions against her. She is operating within the Overton window of post-McCallion Mississauga, and politicians can only lead their constituents by so much before they lose the plot.

 

[syn]

I agree completely on this part.



I'm less sure about this part. I don't think it was their association w/housing developers that drove them from office or that that in particular was Del Duca's downfall. Though, the Kirby GO related nonsense certainly wasn't helpful.

However, I think the Libs got turfed because of perceived insincerity; because of fatigue with a long-lived administration, the privatization of Hydro One and rocketing power bills had a fair hand in there too.

Del Duca lost, I think, because he didn't clearly articulate a vision for Ontario that was compelling. That's partly a substantive issue, their platform was all over-the-map hodgepodge; and partly Del Duca himself who just didn't come across well.

His public speaking isn't that strong, and the packaging of him was off as well.

Can Crombie shift that? I don't know.

But I do agree on all the substantive knocks you listed; I just think the average voter doesn't know all that stuff and unless the media choose to make a big deal of it......may never know.

Agreed.

Not sure she'd be the best choice from a policy perspective, but she seems to be the most electable candidate the Liberals have had in years.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679513339787984896

How many people are going to stay home in 2026 if Bonnie wins this race?

 

[lead82]

Depends how pissed off Ontarians will be in 2026. We don’t elect governments here we turf out existing ones when we get mad.

If Ontario is doing well in 2026 with a good economy and Ford scandals to a minimum then he could win with a vote split of Libs/NDP.

 

[jje1000]

Depends how pissed off Ontarians will be in 2026. We don’t elect governments here we turf out existing ones when we get mad.

If Ontario is doing well in 2026 with a good economy and Ford scandals to a minimum then he could win with a vote split of Libs/NDP.

For all it's worth, everything Ford claims to do can ultimately be boiled down to economy, economy, economy, even if the process could be harmful/scandalous.

Developing the Greenbelt? Economy. Therme? Economy. MZOs? Economy. Spending billions on new factories? Economy. Fighting nurses/teachers? Balancing the budget for the economy.

So as long as the world economy hasn't crapped itself yet by the time the next election rolls by, I think he is a shoe-in. The fact that his opponents are so far ineffectual (Ontario NPC/Liberals), or whom he can shift blame to (Chow, Trudeau, cities) doesn't hurt as well. I don't even think CoL issues will hurt him, somehow.

Honestly Doug Ford reminds me of the way old-fashioned strongman/backroom politics worked, that as long as there was development/progress, the ways the hands were greased didn't matter so much as long as it wasn't too egregious. Likewise, I feel that a good proportion of his support feels the same way- that as long that they believe that the subways, houses, and factories are being built, he's doing his job.

 

[Towered]

A strong economy is irrelevant to the average citizen if they can't even afford a home.