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2022 Russian-Ukrainian War

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Many countries (or groups like the EU) have published lists of sanctioned Russians - it would be interesting to see a compilation and look into why Mr X was sanctioned in countries 1, 2 and 3 but not in 4. Some are obvious, like why the UK has not sanctioned Alexander Lebedev (who, with his son, has supported the Tory party there and his son - Lord Lebedev, no less - owns the Evening Standard newspaper) while Canada sanctioned him last week. Others who have escaped being sanctioned in some countries may reveal more interesting links!
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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Bjays92

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Not to put a damper on what people are saying here, but Ukraine taking back Crimea is extremely far fetched for more reasons than one, even if it is justified.

There are still no guarantees Ukraine wins this war in the short term. I think history proves that expansionist regimes are doomed to fail, but we are currently only being fed information from one side in this conflict. There is virtually zero information on the Ukrainian military's failures, of which there most certainly are many. There have been repeated warnings that the situation in the Donbass region is critical, while not getting any concrete information on what kind of losses Ukraine is truly suffering.

Russia could very well be successful in its current objectives. How long will that last? How far can they truly push? Who knows, but the idea that Ukraine will hold the Donbass in the short term and even launch counter offensives in the region is much less likely than I believe many people are saying.
 

kEiThZ

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Russia could very well be successful in its current objectives.

If you keep shrinking your objectives, you will eventually meet some.

There are still no guarantees Ukraine wins this war in the short term.

NATO hasn't even started really shipping the heavy gear yet. See the 40 country meeting yesterday for the defence industrial mobilization that is coming, alongside Lend-Lease from the US. Yeah, Ukraine ain't getting F-35s. But the US is literally custom building loitering munitions for them (Phoenix Ghost) and the Brits and custom mounting missiles (Brimstone on a grocery delivery truck). Meanwhile, the Russians have lost so many tanks they are now sending 45 year old T-62s to Ukraine.


And by now we can all guess how well maintained and kitted those T-62s in storage would be.

The Ukrainians will lose a bit of ground in the short run. The Russians will pay heavily in blood and steel for every inch they get. In a few weeks, when the Russians have run out of steam and the Ukrainians have received billions of dollars worth of kit, we'll see a counterattack. And it will be spectacular.


When these donations come through, Ukraine will be able to substantially threaten the Black Sea fleet and the Russian Air Force. And they'll be able to deal some absolutely devastating blows to the Russian ground forces. I am thinking the Russians will have six figure total WIA and KIA by Christmas. Might even be Labour Day if those donations come sooner. All coming as the sanctions start to bite in Russia (their central bank governor predicted a shortage of forex by the Fall). This thing is not even close to over. We're just hitting the end of the beginning.
 
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There is a call from Ukraine for cities to cancel any 'twin city' arrangements they have with Russian cities. If Wiki is to be believed, and they usually are, there are not many:

*As of March 3, 2022, the City of Victoria is suspending the twin city relationship with Khabarovsk, Russia until the cessation of recent Russian hostilities in Ukraine and the withdrawal of Russian forces.
 
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Bjays92

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Good twitter thread detailing the current struggles of the Ukrainian army in the Donbass.


Some other points I've been noticing in recent days that aren't included in this thread.

Ukraine has not been getting all that has been promised to them, with weapons being publicly announced and then ultimately being taken off lists behind the scenes (for example, it's my understanding that no country is currently willing to send tanks, despite several countries promising them, for fear it will be perceived as entering the war) tanks aren't the biggest need right now of course but it is just one example of Ukraine not getting all that's been promised to them.

The aid that has been promised is also getting to the frontlines far too slowly, preventing it from being as big of a game changer as it should be.

Additionally, Ukraine it appears has completely exhausted their soviet made weapons, meaning they are fully dependent on allies for arms. This poses 2 problems, first while the equipment may be better, very few soldiers know how to use it, meaning basically all their soldiers are going to need to learn how to use new weapons in the middle of a brutal war. Secondly, the aforementioned issue of weapons not getting to the front-line fast enough, if Ukraine is going to be entirely dependent on foreign arms, then stuff has to make it there in large quantities and quickly.

The next few weeks will be critical in determining the outcome of this phase of the war.
 

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Richard White

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AlvinofDiaspar

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Admiral Beez

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Good twitter thread detailing the current struggles of the Ukrainian army in the Donbass.


Some other points I've been noticing in recent days that aren't included in this thread.

Ukraine has not been getting all that has been promised to them, with weapons being publicly announced and then ultimately being taken off lists behind the scenes (for example, it's my understanding that no country is currently willing to send tanks, despite several countries promising them, for fear it will be perceived as entering the war) tanks aren't the biggest need right now of course but it is just one example of Ukraine not getting all that's been promised to them.

The aid that has been promised is also getting to the frontlines far too slowly, preventing it from being as big of a game changer as it should be.

Additionally, Ukraine it appears has completely exhausted their soviet made weapons, meaning they are fully dependent on allies for arms. This poses 2 problems, first while the equipment may be better, very few soldiers know how to use it, meaning basically all their soldiers are going to need to learn how to use new weapons in the middle of a brutal war. Secondly, the aforementioned issue of weapons not getting to the front-line fast enough, if Ukraine is going to be entirely dependent on foreign arms, then stuff has to make it there in large quantities and quickly.

The next few weeks will be critical in determining the outcome of this phase of the war.
I don’t think the Mayor is the end all for military advice. But yes, things are looking dire.
 

Richard White

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I get the distinct impression that the novelty has worn off and foreign nations aren't so keen on helping.

If you notice, there has been alot less talk of arms deliveries and support recently.
 

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I get the distinct impression that the novelty has worn off and foreign nations aren't so keen on helping.

If you notice, there has been alot less talk of arms deliveries and support recently.
This is how 'the world' works - one is drawn to 'new stuff' and want 'new news'. That said, there may be less talk about the war now (certainly on UT!) but arms deliveries are ramping up and lots more people are dying. The novelty has worn off because it is no longer a novelty.
 

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