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2022 43rd Ontario general election (June 2, 2022)

Admiral Beez

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The sense I'm getting is we are looking at a PC supermajority tomorrow at or around 100 seats.
That’s my sense too. 100+ seats. By Christmas Horvath is finished as NDP leader. With FPTP we really can only work with two parties. My vote is that the NDP and Liberals merge. Let the Greens take the unelectable leftists.
 

Richard White

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My vote is that the NDP and Liberals merge

That will likely never happen. The NDP is the earthy-hippie activist party while the Liberals are the polished, business oriented party. The NDP even has a Marxist-Leninist wing which would not sit well with the Liberals.

They hate each other and nothing short of a forced merger will make it happen.

Keep in mind as well that the NDP is essentially one big party administratively. The Riding Associations combine the federal and provincial parties unlike the liberals which have separate Riding Associations for both. Additionally when you sign up for an NDP membership you automatically sign up provinically and federally. The Liberals have separate memberships for both.

To merge the parties, the NDP would need to do alot of administrative work both federally and provincially. I don't see it happening.
 

old boy

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I hate the PCs, but I have to admit they are great at getting votes from people voting directly against their own best interests.
And what does that say about the population at large ? Everyone adheres to the tyranny they're comfortable with, which includes our own high-sounding democratic form of government. We're eminently manageable.
 

zang

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I always liked to say that the Common Sense Revolution wasn't about instituting common sense, it was about redefining common sense into something that was uncommon, nor sensible.
It was making people think austerity and selfishness were a social good, rather than playing on dark instincts.
 

Northern Light

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I hate the PCs, but I have to admit they are great at getting votes from people voting directly against their own best interests.

Yes, but well shy of a majority of votes, its important to note. Our absurd electoral system torques results.

And what does that say about the population at large ? Everyone adheres to the tyranny they're comfortable with, which includes our own high-sounding democratic form of government. We're eminently manageable.
I always liked to say that the Common Sense Revolution wasn't about instituting common sense, it was about redefining common sense into something that was uncommon, nor sensible.

I want to take these two together to argue that what it says is that most people aren't policy wonks........they don't obsess on the details of how healthcare is managed, what revenues are needed, the curriculum in public schools
or the best spot for a new Provincial Park.

For some there is a knowledge barrier; for others there is a time limitation (get the kids off to school, get to work, pick-up kids, make dinner etc. ); for some there is no excuse but laziness, but I wouldn't throw that around too frivolously.

All of which is to say, people get sound bites of policy here and there, and make snap judgements on those, and on their impression of a leader (honest/dishonest, warm/cold, clear answers/vague answers etc)

Do I wish everyone was better read, absolutely, but its important to recognize what people are judging. Most have never read a single party's platform, they never read the 'Common Sense Revolution' either. Twenty Pages
can be 19 more than most people can find time for; and the typical platform runs 125 pages ++

It was making people think austerity and selfishness were a social good, rather than playing on dark instincts.

I'll add in Zang's comment here to say, I think that's not quite the take most people got.

(Hey I didn't vote for it)

But.....one has to remember the context; and then understand what was promised.

The ideas were straight forward (not necessarily right/true) ....

Lower deficits (after a period of record high ones)
Lower Income Tax
No hospital closures (they went back on that one in spades)

What did people hear? I would argue, they heard, we're going to stop building public housing everywhere (good policy or not, the extent of that program was not a popular move by the NDP at the time, and caused them grief in even in neighbourhoods we think of as moderately progressive)...

I think they heard that then record case loads of people on Social Assistance would be addressed by rolling back rates.
I think they heard, "But we won't rollback ODSP rates for those people who 'legitimately' need help." (yes I agree that's a grossly unfair way to think...but I digress)
They heard "We're going to nix that 'women's dictionary' project....."
While even Teachers or Nurses heard..... "No more Rae Days"

Was the platform good policy? No. Did it promote a better society? No.

But that's not what a significant percentage of the population heard.

It speaks to the need to have 3-5 core messages and hammer them. That doesn't mean you can't have 100 pages of good policy;
it means you have to have a 1 page summary that's understandable and likeable by a plurality/majority.

If messaging matters; so do two other things..........

The messenger. To be clear, you don't have to be a rock star or even particularly warm, I don't think Mike Harris came across as either, nor frankly does the current Premier.
What you have to be is believable in the message you deliver. Harris was a believably angry, bulldozer and that appealed to many voters.

Finally, the incumbent matters. Voters who are angry vote more than voters who are not.
Voters who want change, come out over those who could go either way. You have to combine the positive w/the negative..........
which is to say, you have remind people why change is a good idea.
Neither Team Red nor Orange have done a compelling job of that in this election; which is really unfortunate.
 

gabe

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That will likely never happen. The NDP is the earthy-hippie activist party while the Liberals are the polished, business oriented party. The NDP even has a Marxist-Leninist wing which would not sit well with the Liberals.

They hate each other and nothing short of a forced merger will make it happen.

Keep in mind as well that the NDP is essentially one big party administratively. The Riding Associations combine the federal and provincial parties unlike the liberals which have separate Riding Associations for both. Additionally when you sign up for an NDP membership you automatically sign up provinically and federally. The Liberals have separate memberships for both.

To merge the parties, the NDP would need to do alot of administrative work both federally and provincially. I don't see it happening.

The NDP went from the working class party to the earthy-hippie activist woke party. I have memories of my NDP card member Dad taking me to NDP barbecues when i was a kid. Thousands of people used to show up, mostly workers from the construction, manufacturing, trucking industry, as well other union workers. Now a days those workers all are voting Ford sadly.

I voted Liberal this election.
 

Richard White

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The NDP went from the working class party to the earthy-hippie activist woke party. I have memories of NDP card member Dad taking me to NDP barbecues when i was a kid. Thousands of people used to show up, mostly workers from the construction, manufacturing, trucking industry, as well other union workers. Now a days those workers all are voting Ford sadly.

I voted Liberal this election.

For the first time since I was eligible to vote, I voted PC. I don't like Del Duca and Andrea is well past her political prime.
 

Northern Light

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From Innovative........a Ridings to Watch cheat sheet:

1654211766911.png


 

Northern Light

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There are now a fair few election prediction sites out there, I will post the projections of a few below and we can see who comes closest:

338 Canada:

1654212089983.png


Election Prediction Project :

1654211978706.png


Advanced Symbolics (Polly) :

1654212196409.png


Leantossup (ipolitics):

1654212325294.png
 

Jonny5

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Voting was quite painless for me tonight in Toronto Centre. I arrived at the polling location at 8:00 p.m., there was no line, and I was in and out in under two minutes.
 

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