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2022 43rd Ontario general election (June 2, 2022)

Northern Light

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Looking like another DoFo majority, ugh. How badly to the Liberals need to do to replace Del Duca?

Admittedly an outlier on prognostications........but ASI's Polly continues to have this relatively close in terms of majority/minority status.

1653059503401.png


I have the PCs slightly higher, but below where pollsters have them.

Still, shifting a few seats is certainly plausible; though less likely as time passes if there isn't a noticable downward tilt in the polls for the PCs
 

John_Dee

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Looking like another DoFo majority, ugh. How badly to the Liberals need to do to replace Del Duca?

Right from the start, Ford has been very, very lucky in the people who were opposing him...or should I say "opposing?" They've been complicit with his electoral victories by dint of being - at the bare minimum - completely useless and ineffectual. His pea-brained brother blundered into the Toronto Mayor's office in no little part due to the two selfish duds who were competing against him. Neither of those self-centered bastards were popular or well-liked, neither or them had any real political following outside of their immediate families, and both insisted on staying in the race, spoiling the chance of the anti-Ford vote coalescing around one candidate and giving him a real chance. And we're almost certainly about to see history repeat itself.

The Liberals must have been out of their minds to elevate Del Duca to Party Leader. The man's a total non-entity.
 

PinkLucy

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Right from the start, Ford has been very, very lucky in the people who were opposing him...or should I say "opposing?" They've been complicit with his electoral victories by dint of being - at the bare minimum - completely useless and ineffectual. His pea-brained brother blundered into the Toronto Mayor's office in no little part due to the two selfish duds who were competing against him. Neither of those self-centered bastards were popular or well-liked, neither or them had any real political following outside of their immediate families, and both insisted on staying in the race, spoiling the chance of the anti-Ford vote coalescing around one candidate and giving him a real chance. And we're almost certainly about to see history repeat itself.

The Liberals must have been out of their minds to elevate Del Duca to Party Leader. The man's a total non-entity.
Both DelDuca and Horwath let a lot of opportunities slip through their fingers over the past two years. Sure, DelDuca didn’t have a seat, but as party leader he could have had far more airtime at his disposal. We barely heard from him.
 

JasonParis

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It sounding like Del Duca may to even carry his riding. I feel he's been more effective during this campaign that I thought he would, but still not great. And still not the right leader for the Libs.
 

Northern Light

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A few polling and projection bits and bobs:

1653242637094.png


The latest Mainstreet poll is very curious............Mainstreet tends to favour PC slightly (overstating outcomes in their favour just a bit).......they had the PCs as high as 39% two weeks ago. .... now they have them at 34%

1653242994955.png


One poll can always be an outlier.........but there is a downward trend in PC support among the last few polls

***

Consistent w/the above, ASI's Polly now has the PCs in minority territory:

1653243229831.png
 

kEiThZ

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I hope to see the Greens grow provincially. They presented the best housing plan this election.

And much as I hate that proposed highway, it and the various transit projects getting built let the PCs brand themselves as the party of action and their opponents as all talk.

All those years of debating LRT vs. subway, they years spent studying GO RER, etc. All of it. Played into the PCs hands. And if they win a majority, it's very likely, they will get credit for a lot of infrastructure opening on their watch.
 

vic

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Judging purely by the sign count, the results for Davenport will be:

1) NDP (Marit Stiles) with a possible majority
2) Liberal (Jerry Levitan) with a strong second-place finish
3) Ontario Party (Diti Coutinho) with a fairly strong third place (honestly surprised by the number of signs around here....shudder)
4) Communist (Jack Copple) [got a flyer yesterday too], and Green (Karen Stephenson), with 1 vote each

Conservatives have their usual strong campaign here of basically not existing.
 

Richard White

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Judging purely by the sign count, the results for Davenport will be:

1) NDP (Marit Stiles) with a possible majority
2) Liberal (Jerry Levitan) with a strong second-place finish
3) Ontario Party (Diti Coutinho) with a fairly strong third place (honestly surprised by the number of signs around here....shudder)
4) Communist (Jack Copple) [got a flyer yesterday too], and Green (Karen Stephenson), with 1 vote each

Conservatives have their usual strong campaign here of basically not existing.

In Scarborough Southwest it is a 3 way race. Doly seemed to be the front runner at the start but now the PCs and Liberals are catching up. I would not be surprised if the riding went PC for the first time since Mike Harris.

That being said, sign counts do not mean anything. All it means, is that someone took a sign not that they are voting one way or another.
 

zang

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