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2022/25 Russian-Ukrainian War

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Admiral Beez said:
I find Indians’ support of Russia perplexing. Tsarist Russian would have invaded India if they could have. Indians have far more cultural, economic, political, societal and demographic ties with Britain than they ever had with Russia.
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That colonial history plays a part. But also, I don't think most people really understand the extent to which the Soviet Union penetrated the government and society of the newly born Republic of India during the Cold War. Not even most Indians know and understand this history:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602145105116532736
 
Admiral Beez said:
Looks like they’re about ready to roll!

www.pravda.com.ua

It's time to take back what's ours – Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has posted a video of Ukrainian military personnel in which they ask for the "decisive offensive" to be blessed.
www.pravda.com.ua www.pravda.com.ua

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I suspect there's still a few weeks till major combat. But the shaping is really starting to show. First we see that Ukraine is targeting the most skilled personnel and command nodes:

www.dailymail.co.uk

Putin's officials blame UK's Storm Shadow missiles for Mariupol strike

Ukraine's once fiercely defended city, now in the Russian-held sector of Donetsk, reported two missile strikes on Friday, where a monthslong siege early in the war left much of the city in ruins.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

We also see that Ukraine is particularly focused on taking out Russian artillery and rockets:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662193402476126208

This is happening concurrently as Western equipment and training is still ongoing. Personally, I think the should wait till July and keep doing what they are doing. But making the call on the right time is also part of strategic calculation.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Looks like they’re about ready to roll!

www.pravda.com.ua

It's time to take back what's ours – Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has posted a video of Ukrainian military personnel in which they ask for the "decisive offensive" to be blessed.
www.pravda.com.ua www.pravda.com.ua

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From June 2nd to the 25th I'll be in Hungary. I should be able to provide a somewhat local perspective on this.

As long as it doesn't go sideways I'll fly out of Hungary on June 25th. If it does I'm stuck there.
 
Richard White said:
From June 2nd to the 25th I'll be in Hungary. I should be able to provide a somewhat local perspective on this.

As long as it doesn't go sideways I'll fly out of Hungary on June 25th. If it does I'm stuck there.
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I didn't know @Edward Skira was now hiring global 'roving' reporters for UT; but good for you for landing the gig! ;)
 
Richard White said:
From June 2nd to the 25th I'll be in Hungary. I should be able to provide a somewhat local perspective on this.

As long as it doesn't go sideways I'll fly out of Hungary on June 25th. If it does I'm stuck there.
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I'm not sure why you think the war would impact you. It's in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. It's over a thousand km away. Really, the stuff in Romania is probably a bigger risk.

If Vlad really wants to do something, he won't be kicking off in the fiefdom of his vassal (Orban). He'll go for Poland. And that's asking for WW3. So I'm very doubtful any of this is a substantial risk at all.
 
kEiThZ said:
I'm not sure why you think the war would impact you. It's in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. It's over a thousand km away. Really, the stuff in Romania is probably a bigger risk.

If Vlad really wants to do something, he won't be kicking off in the fiefdom of his vassal (Orban). He'll go for Poland. And that's asking for WW3. So I'm very doubtful any of this is a substantial risk at all.
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Fair but it is in the back of my mind. How could it not be when you're in a country bordering a war zone?
 
Richard White said:
Fair but it is in the back of my mind. How could it not be when you're in a country bordering a war zone?
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I was in Dubai as a kid during the Gulf War when Saddam was firing Scuds at Saudi. A bit scary yes. But the UAE wasn't in NATO with a whole lot of modern air defence between them and the launchers. I'd basically be as concerned about the war in Budapest as I would be in Toronto. Honestly.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Looks like they’re about ready to roll!
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Next full moon is June 4th. Should be interesting to see if the Ukrainians move then or after. Moonlight helps for manoeuvre. On the other hand, if you have NVIS and the opponent doesn't, helps to inverse the lunar cycle. Somewhere in there is probably the start of the offensive. So by about the 20th.... Weather is a critical factor here. They need a good run of dry and warm weather. And a certain level of cloud clover.

I am only curious if they slowly ramp or they kick off with a bang with multiple breaches.
 
kEiThZ said:
I was in Dubai as a kid during the Gulf War when Saddam was firing Scuds at Saudi. A bit scary yes. But the UAE wasn't in NATO with a whole lot of modern air defence between them and the launchers. I'd basically be as concerned about the war in Budapest as I would be in Toronto. Honestly.
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I spent 6 weeks in Slovakia last summer. The war materially affected life there in no way whatsoever.
 
kEiThZ said:
I suspect there's still a few weeks till major combat. But the shaping is really starting to show. First we see that Ukraine is targeting the most skilled personnel and command nodes:

www.dailymail.co.uk

Putin's officials blame UK's Storm Shadow missiles for Mariupol strike

Ukraine's once fiercely defended city, now in the Russian-held sector of Donetsk, reported two missile strikes on Friday, where a monthslong siege early in the war left much of the city in ruins.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

We also see that Ukraine is particularly focused on taking out Russian artillery and rockets:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662193402476126208

This is happening concurrently as Western equipment and training is still ongoing. Personally, I think the should wait till July and keep doing what they are doing. But making the call on the right time is also part of strategic calculation.
Click to expand...
Military targets in the rear areas in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine are getting absolutely hammered on a daily basis lately. This is starting to look a lot like what happened just prior to Ukraine taking back Kherson.
 
Towered said:
Military targets in the rear areas in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine are getting absolutely hammered on a daily basis lately. This is starting to look a lot like what happened just prior to Ukraine taking back Kherson.
Click to expand...
Correct. Looking at the weather and the lunar cycle, I would guesstimate we'll see something towards the end of next week (after about June 7th) or the week after. They've got enough to at least try some real breaches, which in due course can become a major effort if they find limited resistance there. Personally, would love the symbolism of kicking off on June 6th (the other day the world stepped off to fight fascism). But I also know it's dumb and unlikely to run ops off symbolic dates.

I have knots in my stomach knowing what these guys and gals are gearing up for. Literally the fight of their lives.

I try to focus on the positives here. Namely, that everyday Russian forces get weaker and Ukrainian forces get stronger. While Russia is terrorizing Ukrainian civilians with Kinzhals, they aren't degrading Ukrainian military capability. On the flip side, Ukraine is destroying all the logistics and response forces Russia would use to plug a breach. I sincerely hope this leads to a rout. Even if not everywhere, I would love to see tens of thousands of Russian conscripts flee or surrender. Both to reduce the casualty count for both sides and to humiliate the Russians and their supporters.
 
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