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2022/23 Russian-Ukrainian War

Richard White

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Yes, it could also be a tough fight, we shall see. Russia appears to have fundamentally shifted their thinking to more sound war doctrine and will be focused on creating defensive lines and holding their current territories, rather than being in unsustainable offensive positions.

I think how things go over the winter is still relatively unpredictable. Ukraine could see major gains, or we could see more or less a protracted stalemate. I'm hoping for the former of course.

Based on what I have seen so far, I would not be surprised if Russia troops either froze to death on the frontlines or abandoned their posts to save themselves.

They are very poorly equipped and I doubt they are going to be too warm out there.
 

DSC

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Though I am certainly very happy to see what is going on, we probably need to remember the very true advice from Sun Tzu "Build your enemy a golden bridge to retreat across". Putin shows no sign of retiring nor being overthrown so he needs a way to retreat and lose as little 'face' as possible. Hard to see how to make this possible as it really has been a (well deserved) disaster for him so it's difficult to see how to construct a golden bridge but .... See https://www.goodmanmediationgroup.c...uild-a-golden-bridge-to-get-past-your-impasse
 

kEiThZ

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Russia appears to have fundamentally shifted their thinking to more sound war doctrine and will be focused on creating defensive lines

Debatable. They do stuff like throw down lines of dragon teeth. But then don't build covering fields of fire with trenches. They definitely don't have the manning to keep all those trenches full. A lot of this looks very much for show and not well thought through. The Ukrainians could blow right through if they find the weak spots.
 

Bjays92

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Debatable. They do stuff like throw down lines of dragon teeth. But then don't build covering fields of fire with trenches. They definitely don't have the manning to keep all those trenches full. A lot of this looks very much for show and not well thought through. The Ukrainians could blow right through if they find the weak spots.
Tbf, I said *more* sound, which does not require much given previous tactical decisions. I wasn't trying to imply Russia has suddenly started fighting this war as one would expect a "superpower" would. (I use that term lightly hence the quotations) I'm just saying there's slightly more tactical sense to their more recent moves. If nothing else this war remains highly unpredictable.
 

W. K. Lis

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Russian missiles cross into NATO member Poland: report

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called an emergency meeting with national security and defense ministers amid reports of two deaths near the Polish border with Ukraine.

From link.

Russian missile strikes have crossed into Poland, killing two people, the Associated Press (AP) news agency reported on Tuesday.

Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck Przewodow, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.

The AP cited a US intelligence official, but the French AFP news agency quoted another official as saying that the Pentagon was "looking into" the reports.

Piotr Mueller, the spokesman for Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, wrote on Twitter that the premier has called for an emergency meeting with national security ministers and defense ministers.

Mueller said the urgent meeting was due to a "crisis situation."

Latvia's deputy prime minister, Artis Pabriks, offered condolences to Poland.

"Criminal Russian regime fired missiles which target not only Ukrainian civilians but also landed on NATO territory in Poland. Latvia fully stands with Polish friends and condemns this crime," Pabriks wrote on Twitter.

 

Richard White

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DSC

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I wonder if this will prompt Poland to invoke Article 5.
You seem very eager to start World War 3. I have no doubt that the war of words will increase but doubt anyone will go to war over two missiles landing close to a border - at least the first few times it happens!
 

Richard White

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You seem very eager to start World War 3. I have no doubt that the war of words will increase but doubt anyone will go to war over two missiles landing close to a border - at least the first few times it happens!

I am just saying that everything is on a razors edge right now. Poland would be well within their rights to invoke Article 5 accidental missile or not.
 

Bjays92

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I wonder if this will prompt Poland to invoke Article 5.
No way. Cooler heads will prevail on an incident like this as long as it's a one off. Poland will be under extreme pressure from it's allies not to invoke article 5. If this starts to happen on multiple occasions, that's a different story.
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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No way. Cooler heads will prevail on an incident like this as long as it's a one off. Poland will be under extreme pressure from it's allies not to invoke article 5. If this starts to happen on multiple occasions, that's a different story.

Though US and NATO would be crazy not to milk this opportunity for some aggressive counters - particularly in light of the latest bout of bombardment.

AoD
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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Exactly. Nothing fancy... maybe just a MOAB or two on the outskirts of Moscow...

Nah, that's far, far exceeds what's reasonable - if they had truly meant it, it wouldn't be striking some farmer's field. I don't see anything wrong with providing Ukraine with a significant but limited supply of longer range weapons though. Who knows, maybe they'd run off course too. *teehehe*

AoD
 

Towered

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Nah, that's far, far exceeds what's reasonable - if they had truly meant it, it wouldn't be striking some farmer's field. I don't see anything wrong with providing Ukraine with a significant but limited supply of longer range weapons though. Who knows, maybe they'd run off course too. *teehehe*

AoD
This would be the most appropriate response. No more holding back for fear of enraging the Kremlin - send Ukraine whatever they're asking for at this point - modern tanks, jets, and most crucially, lots of long range artillery that can reach every inch of occupied Ukrainian territory.
 

Bjays92

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Nah, that's far, far exceeds what's reasonable - if they had truly meant it, it wouldn't be striking some farmer's field. I don't see anything wrong with providing Ukraine with a significant but limited supply of longer range weapons though. Who knows, maybe they'd run off course too. *teehehe*

AoD
Also possible Poland (not NATO but backed by NATO behind closed doors) could take out a launch site or two in Belarus (assuming that is in fact where this missile came from)

Ukraine will most definitely get some shiny new toys.

Exactly. Nothing fancy... maybe just a MOAB or two on the outskirts of Moscow...
I mean no offense Richard but you clearly have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. When missiles land on the outskirts of Berlin then maybe we can consider coming anywhere near to Moscow. The goal here is to prevent escalation at all costs while also being resolute and not appearing weak. The ball is largely in Poland's court right now as to appropriate next steps, but no one is aiming for global destruction which is essentially what you are suggesting.
 

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