News   Aug 19, 2019
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2019 Political Prognostications and Hopes

Northern Light

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Ok, time to put this year's Crystal Ball gazing thread out there.

After last year, I should probably just let everyone else comment and stay quiet. LOL

However, I'll try and be a good sport by putting myself out there a bit.

I'll start w/corporate:

Expect a renovation and possible expansion of Bloor St. Market at Manulife Centre, maybe before the end of 2019.

Eataly will open in the fall, McEwan in January, along with Farm Boy at Lakeshore/Leslie by late Jan/early Feb; and several other supermarkets will open in the broader core.

This includes: Longos on King West, Sobeys at the Art Shoppe condos, Freshco on Bathurst as well.

Ground will break on 160 Front W along with BA North, and at least one other major office tower will be announced as going forward.

This will be driven as much by corporate consolidation to the core as net new jobs (Several banks are moving hundreds/thousands of staff back to the core)

Municipal Politics

By year's end except a formal funding announcement for relief line phase 1

The Library's open hours project will go forward for another year

Bikeshare expansion will move forward with another significant year of growth.

King Street changes will be approved as permanent with some modifications.

At least one major set of new Bike lanes will be approved, most controversial since Bloor.

Deals will be announced for new purpose-built rental on several sites identified by the Mayor by year's end with construction in 2020 on most.

Provincial Politics

- (more hope than prediction) some level of cooperation with a federal initiative on pharmacare.

- 25% more GO train service delivered

- Something resembling the Wynne promise on GO fares (may not be as generous)

- More liberalization on alcohol (beyond distribution points) (look for changes around wholesaling and some more consumer facing changes as well.)

- A deal with the AG that will allow a reduction in the provincial deficit by way of partially counting pension surplus; this will also result in a quiet re-stating and lower of the 'Liberal' deficit as well.

Federal Politics

- Liberals re-elected (not sure this will be at all enthusiastic, but I'm not sold on other party's making a huge dent, Scheer's numbers notwithstanding.

- Greens triple their seat count and Lizzy May gains two seat-mates.

- There will be a pharmacare announcement in the spring budget. But any implementation will be dependent on provincial cooperation, I'm dubious.

- Something comes down the pipe on VIA Corridor service, not placing bets on whether its the HFR many expect (though i might be)

- One or more new National Parks, Canada will miss its treaty obligations and the Liberals their electoral promise of 4 years ago.
 

Thorns_Embrace

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Municipal:
Tory is not going to lose a major vote on council but I expect nothing major to happen in the next year. Scarborough Subway costs will not be as high as the doomsday predictors were saying.
Very uneventful year municipally.

Ontario: I expect that Doug is going to have a quieter year. However, sadly, there will not be a lot of progress on the deficit front. However, his approval will remain consistent due to not having anything to attack him on.

Federal:
This is where the interesting predictions come in. I am going to make some bold predictions for the next election. I believe this is the election will change thr political landscape that may change Canada politics in the next few year. My first prediction is the Green party will finally win more than one seat. My prediction is between 2 and 5 seats. Their breakthroughs at the provincial level allow them to win more seats in BC and maybe some elsewhere.
Secondly I think the peoples party will be more of a force than people believe. They are going to pick up votes from a lot of they will cut the CPC vote somewhat but will be somewhat of a protest vote more than anything over the more business oriented parties. I expect them to win 5 seats but may only be a Quebec party this year.

I think The Bloc will be squeezed out and not win a seat. Quebec Separatists parties have kinda taken a back seat in recent years, and Bernier. They may get an okay % of vote in Quebec, but may not win a riding due to to FPTP.

I think Jagmeet Singh will pull out a win a Burnaby which will allow him to stay on a leader. However they end up with less seats in the next election due to a bunch of retirements and Singh not being electable in Quebec and more rural areas. They still get an okay percentage in more multicultural areas which still holds off a complete wipeout.

CPC will have a good vote % but fall short of forming government, Sheer picks up no steam as leader. Will be very close though.

LIberals squeeze out a minority government somehow. They MAY actually get less total votes than the CPC but win due to having more spread out support. They can govern with the support of the NDP and maybe the green party. They will govern HARD left due to this as well.
 

Jasmine18

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Justin Trudeau wins but wins a minority instead as he loses the support of males and white suburban and exurban areas of the country but gets a big gain in seats in Quebec.
He doubles down on his strategy setting up a perfect storm for populists to win a huge majority in 2023. (smacks head)
 

animatronic

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Doug Ford will make a federal play in 2019.

Trudeau will defeat the naysayers and return a strong minority. This will cause Harper's Calgary loyalists to force Scheer's resignation and appoint someone like Candice Bergen as interim, with a leadership race in early 2020 and expected federal rematch later in the year.

One bright spot for the Tories will be rural Ontario, where DoFo spent most of the campaign stumping federally from his (Deco leased, Randy driven) bang bus. It's a pure coincidence, of course, but the Harperites will use this as leverage to push the Ford narrative.

So watch for the Fall of 2019 to be occupied with some weak sauce.federal MPs announcing their runs while Doug coyly "focuses on Ontario" while ignoring it completely.

He won't announce his candidacy until early 2020, but all the writing will be on the wall.
 

Videodrome

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-Justin Trudeau returns with another majority government, while the BQ and NDP get wrecked. Scheer steps down as leader after doing poorly, as does Jagmeet Singh. I agree that the Greens win more seats as well. The PP party could take a dent of the vote from the CPC too.

-Doug Ford isn't PC leader by the end of the year. Christine Elliott takes over at some point. Some PC MPP's will quit for whatever reason and they won't hold them in a by-election if they are in urban areas. Defections will likely happen too.

-John Tory is his normal self and council agrees with him. In general, a boring year for municipal politics.
 
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BurlOak

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Municipal:
Pretty boring year. King Street trial made permanent. Subways uploaded to province just as new, higher cost estimate for Scarborough Subway released.

Provincial:
Similar to this year. Reasonably good governance and very negative reporting.
Subway Value Engineering (VE) exercise announced in conjunction with extending study of DRL to Eglinton. This essentially buys Ford another year before funding is required. Similar VE for Yonge North.
Booze and pot in local stores.

Federal:
Jason Kenney and UPC will win with over 50% of the vote, and Alberta will join Saskatchewan, Ontario and New Brunswick in the Gas Tax lawsuit. Western separation will grow louder, but Ontario and New Brunswick voters will see a change in attitude as the Trudeau government will bribe them with spending in advance of the election.
Trudeau government will have funding announcement coming out of their ears. Big platform planks will be Edible pot, PharmaCare, Guaranteed Income. Costing will be atrociously underestimated, but it will be ignored and Liberals will be returned with another majority. CPC will improve a bit, but NDP will fall even farther. Early in 2020, Alberta will formulate a question for an upcoming separation referendum.

World:
Trump will unveil his Middle East peace plan to much ridicule from the international media. Totally biased news coverage against Trump continues. By the fall, his plan will begin to see some acceptance and many of the neighboring countries will be in support of it. Peace with North Korea will continue to improve. Trump appoints another supreme court judge. As Italy and Hungary seal off Eastern and Southern Europe, Spain will see a large scale migrant invasion. Due to their poor economy (and similar to Greece), they can't put up much of a fight and acquiesce. Nothing will be decided on with Brexit and UK will see a general election. This will lead to another round of protests as the migrants make their way to France.
 

jje1000

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Some interesting hopes and dreams from Toronto's councillors, which you can use to adjust your own municipal hopes and dreams:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/councillors-share-new-years-resolutions-1.4948960



Only thing I'm really hoping for covers both municipal and provincial, which is to see initial RER contract finalization within early 2019 without any sort of reduction in scope. Hopefully we also find out the fate of HSR in Ontario. Subway uploading can go either way at this point.

Also hoping to see more progress and perhaps additional funding for the DRL, and perhaps some movement on opening up parts of the Yellow Belt (though it's a long shot) for intensification, with perhaps some studies or a councillor's motion. AirBnb will also hopefully be regulated in 2019 as well. Hopefully there will be another motion examining storm-proofing Toronto's drainage systems.

IMO transportation and housing costs are the defining factor in determining Toronto's livability, everything else will fall into place if those things are worked on.



Finally in development file, I hope we get some movement on revitalizing downtown Yonge Street and its laneways- I was just there and I couldn't believe how ratty our main drag felt, despite the great urbanistic bones it inherited.
 
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JasonParis

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Here's mine...
  • Trudeau's Liberals will win a second majority, but with a small reduction in seats. It won't be a good night for the BQ or NDP. The PPC siphens enough vote in a few key areas to prevent support from flipping to Con in some needed areas.
  • Doug Ford will find himself embroiled in something as headline-making as his brother's crack-gate was. If he still leads the PC's, it will be leading a smaller party after some more defections.
  • The King Street pilot will be approved permanently with some sensible streetwork and signalling improvements.
  • Trump will be impeached by the House, but not the Senate. Although, looses a few key Senators post-Mueller. A huge debate regarding if an incumbant President can be arrested will also spill-out.
  • Westminster can't pass Brexit by the March deadline and the UK falls into no-man's land. The chorus for a people's vote grows louder!
 

TrickyRicky

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Of interest to this forum: On the surprise side the Federal Liberals who are having a hard time getting any infrastructure spending traction just have to make some big GTA transit funding announcement in an election year but I just fear it will be utterly politically cynical. Ford and Trudeau will trade barbs and the funding will go to shore up support in some suburban swing riding.
 

JasonParis

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Of interest to this forum: On the surprise side the Federal Liberals who are having a hard time getting any infrastructure spending traction just have to make some big GTA transit funding announcement in an election year but I just fear it will be utterly politically cynical. Ford and Trudeau will trade barbs and the funding will go to shore up support in some suburban swing riding.
The Feds will build the Relief Line and the Prov will build Yonge North. If it were only that easy.
 

Videodrome

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In light of the announced by-elections, I am predicting that the NDP doesn't even register in Quebec and Mulcair's former seat is a Liberal flip. Jagmeet Singh also fails to win the Burnaby seat.
 
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mjl08

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In light of the announced by-elections, I am predicting that the NDP doesn't even register in Quebec and Mulcair's former seat is a Liberal flip. Jagmeet Singh also fails to win the Burnaby seat.
I anticipate some 'maverick' NDP candidates in Quebec to rebel against their party and win on their own popularity, like Alexandre Boulerice or Ruth Ellen Brosseau.
 
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Northern Light

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Brosseau has a lot going for her at this point.

Fluently bilingual, strongly liked in her constituency, has shown a great work ethic, personally knows challenging circumstances, and lets be honest, she's telegenic, its not a qualification, but its opposite can be an obstacle.

It was a mistake for the NDP to turf Mulcair. But I don't see him wanting his old job back if Singh doesn't pull off one hell of a miracle.

Brosseau on the other hand......might seem a wise choice.

I'm still wondering how Singh has managed to muff this so badly, when as deputy leader in Ontario he seemed to have a deft touch, good media rapport etc.

Its been an unending series of missteps since his move to the federal party.
 
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