2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[steveintoronto]

Some retrospect from Martin Regg Cohn, who some claim to be a Liberal sycophant:

Could the NDP stop the Scarborough subway in its tracks?
By MARTIN REGG COHNOntario Politics Columnist
Wed., Dec. 20, 2017
[...]
A new cast of characters is driving the transit debate — Premier Kathleen Wynne, Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown, the NDP’s Andrea Horwath and Mayor John Tory. Despite their disparate ideologies, they have a shared allegiance to the dubious Scarborough subway extension that defies logical transit planning and fiscal prudence.

How did the three major parties bond over this boondoggle? So much money for one solitary Scarborough byelection race in 2013, when they shamelessly outdid each other in bidding for voter support. Today, as the price keeps rising (more than $3.3 billion), and the number of stations keeps declining (just one at Scarborough Town Centre), how much longer until one of these politicians has the wit to get off this train and restore the original LRT design that would pay for seven more stations serving far more commuters closer to where they live.

The governing Liberals long ago made their pact with the electoral devil. Now, Brown’s PCs have opted to one-up them by promising to allocate even more money to future cost overruns in Scarborough, digging themselves in even deeper.

According to his campaign platform, Brown will bankroll the misguided subway tunnelling with a new form of financial engineering: If elected next year, the Tories plan to bring all TTC subway routes under provincial ownership, to take advantage of Ontario’s ability to amortize the expenses (the TTC would still operate the system).

It’s an interesting accounting exercise, without any greater political accountability. The PC transit vision promises something for everyone — a Scarborough subway extension, a Sheppard subway linkage (already rejected by city council), and an extension to Richmond Hill — without the money to pay for it all.

On his way to New York, Byford has become more candid about the future of the faltering Scarborough subway. As costs keep rising, certain to exceed the city’s budgeted cap, he has suggested council would have to re-open the debate. Keesmaat, the former planner, also noted in retirement that there is a tipping point beyond which the unjustifiable becomes unsustainable.

All this second-guessing at city hall leaves an opening at Queen’s Park for someone to turn the Scarborough gravy train around. With the Liberals hunkering down and the Tories doubling down, will the New Democrats not take a second look at everyone’s tunnel vision?

The NDP’s Horwath touts herself as the leader looking out for the little guy against vested interests and political boondoggles. Her party is as guilty as the others in playing byelection politics four years ago by joining the Scarborough sweepstakes.

But on the eve of a provincial election what better way for the NDP to resonate with all Torontonians than by reverting to the original LRT that would deliver several more stations instead of one for a lot less money? Is there no politician willing to get serious about making tracks, rather than leading us in circles?

Martin Regg Cohn’s political column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. mcohn@thestar.ca, Twitter: @reggcohn

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/sta...top-the-scarborough-subway-in-its-tracks.html

 

[SunriseChampion]

To be fair to Howarth, no legitimate sycophant can afford to not support the SSE at this point.

Fixed it for ya. Gratis!



(In case anyone misses the point: leaders are supposed to lead not grovel at the feet of mediocrity).

 

[Videodrome]

Will this 407 scandal actually dent PC support enough that they lose or don't win a majority?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Will this 407 scandal actually dent PC support enough that they lose or don't win a majority?

No chance. No one cares about that.

 

[EagleEye]

Isnt that the fake actors-for-hire rally?

They aren't lawn signs. The lawn signs I've seen only show the name of the person running in the area, no mention of Ford (or Wynne in the Liberal's case)

 

[BurlOak]

Just looked at the CBC election vote compass. https://votecompass.cbc.ca/ontario/home

It looks like even they agree that the PC's are the centrist party of the lot. When I take the measurements, here is how far they are from the centre
PC = 2.1 points.
LIB = 3.0 points.
GRN = 4.0 points.
NDP = 4.3 points.
Alternatively, you can say that the Liberals are 40% farther away from the centre than are the PC's.

 

[adma]

By your terms perhaps.

I stand behind both claims. Just reading Horwath's latest transit spiel, my initial thought being "Ah, she's getting it"...only to get to the finer points, where indeed it's more of the same.

How in Hell can anyone support the SSE and be taken seriously? Schreiner has addressed that. So pardon me for stating Schreiner is performing admirably, since he addresses that point and more on the transit file.

Yes, but you're editorializing. Personalizing it. Speaking in terms of things that might influence *your own* voting decision. Whereas I'm only observing and reflecting and keeping my own voting decisions out of it as best as I can.

In fact, you know what the *real* problem is? That you and I have different approaches to politics and elections. You view them in personalized terms; I view them as phenomena. My comfort zone is as a fly on the wall, poring over maps and stats and whatnot; otherwise, I'd become a bored little kid, watching the grownups bickering.

Or it's like the difference btw/ approaches to artistic discussion. Like, you'd be the sort who'd go on and on about painterly technique and whatnot; whereas I'm the sort who'd rather view, well, the Ontario election as a sort of real-time performance piece--"found art", if you will.

Once that's understood, the "How in Hell" matters become irrelevant. Or, it's like the painterly-obsessed wondering "How in Hell" performance pieces qualify as "art"...

 

[narduch]

LOL. Sounds legit...

60,000 names & addresses stolen from 407ETR offices in an inside job.
Fake ID's sold and used to elect PC candidates in dozens of ridings.
The PC candidate who resigned last night worked there.
The PC party says they’re looking into it.

I believe they did it. But I just don't get why.

Is becoming an MPP so lucrative that you would be willing to spend $20,000 to illegally rig the vote? That still doesn't even guarantee you the seat either.

Have they listed the 29 candidates in question? Chances are they are looking for other ways to cheat as well.

 

[JGHali]

A Newfoundland/Atlantic opinion:

Editorial: Ford Nation?
The Western Star
Published: 3 hours ago
If ever a solid argument could be made for proportional representation, it’s in Ontario today. With three weeks left before the June 7th vote, the Progressive Conservatives, under populist leader Doug Ford, hold a comfortable lead in the polls. The latest polling indicates the PCs have just under 41 per cent support among decided voters, followed by the NDP at 31 and Liberals at 24.

You might surmise these numbers would give the Tories a slim majority or a comfortable minority on voting day. But seat-tracking projections give the PCs a whopping 84 seats, the NDP 38 and the governing Liberals two, despite the latter party having the support of almost one quarter of voters.

http://www.thewesternstar.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-ford-nation-211075/

 

[steveintoronto]

Speaking in terms of things that might influence *your own* voting decision.

I don't have a vote in this jurisdiction. Keep trying.

 

[steveintoronto]

I believe they did it. But I just don't get why.

It could be symptomatic of a larger effort to manipulate outcome. I'm still troubled by Lucy's Leger Marketing survey poll being refused because she expressed an opinion against Ford. The implication is stark: They only want the 'right' persons to poll. Ford's clutch is slipping, and his followers mistake the smoke for substance.

A Newfoundland/Atlantic opinion:

Wow, first line: "If ever a solid argument could be made for proportional representation, it’s in Ontario today."

I'm now a convert to the cause. (edit: With Provisos) My prior concern was that PropRep *in prior manifestations* trended towards instability and weak leadership. I state again, without any real leaders to vote for (and Paikin pointed out less than 10% of voters do so for their local candidate, they vote for the leaders) then the major plus for PropRep disappears. And the 'leaders', as pointed out in this string yesterday @syn , myself and others, are are making wild pledges contrary to good sense (SSE for instance), and PropRep would tend to dampen that proclivity.

Edit to Add:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to form her fourth government after the opposition Social Democrats (SPD) voted in favour of another grand coalition.

The vote by 464,000 rank-and-file members ends five months of political deadlock since September's election.

The SPD had been split between the party's leadership, which backed joining the coalition, and its radical youth wing, which did not.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43276732

Merkel regimes have trended to be problematic, that hasn't disappeared in PropRep, ( five months of political deadlock) but the context of FPTP in Ontario (possibly Canada) has. We're not getting effective and qualified leadership.

 

[JGHali]

The old canard about weak leadership and instability is pretty much nonsense. #Germany #AngelaMerkel

Of course, one thing PR does not allow for as well is to channel “throw the bums out” sentiment since wild swings aren’t common. As an old saying in Israel went, it doesn’t matter who you vote for, you still end up with Shimon Peres.

Ontario probably could have had PR if this current government hasn’t sabotaged 10 years ago.

 

[steveintoronto]

The old canard about weak leadership and instability is pretty much nonsense. #Germany #AngelaMerkel

In retrospect, it depended on the context. Merkel of course leads a complex coalition. But that just might be the new norm in Ontario, we'll see.

As an old saying in Israel went, it doesn’t matter who you vote for, you still end up with Shimon Peres.

lol...Israel could sure do with him now!

 

[Northern Light]

On the subject of PR, which I favour. (Mixed Member Proportional with a 5% min. threshold) I think the argument for it has always been there.

Its certainly true there are unstable versions of PR, but one can largely tweak against those using minimum thresholds and different tools.

The weak leadership argument is a different one.

I think it really presupposes that leadership belongs to one person and one party at a time.

I'm not really convinced that's the case or that it best serves society.

By definition it results in people being excluded from power at any given time.

Which creates a different form of instability.

see "Let's dig a tunnel under Eglinton".........then 'Let's fill that tunnel back in" or Bob Rae's "Lets raise social assistance rates" ...followed by Mike Harris "Lets cut those rates by 22%"

Its all rather unproductive and wasteful.

Better to develop a consensus on whether Eglinton should get a tunnel and if it should then not filling it back in.

Better to agree that social assistance rates are too low, but not raising them so quickly as to raise the ire of a huge chunk of the middle class, then reversing them out. Phase that increase over 3 years then index it.

PR governments, if done right (that's a big if as with any other system); can lead to greater social consensus, which I see as the best form of leadership because it has legs.

 

[christiesplits]

I’m really unsure about how much an impact these scandals are going to have on the PCs. The Fords, after all, are Teflon. Not to mention after the Patrick Brown scandal broke, there was a tiny blip in the PC polling numbers, but they still remained in first.

It might work in the PCs favour that all the scandals are breaking just before the long weekend and with many people on vacation and not checking their news feed.

The NDP has the biggest room to grow out of all this.. I can imagine their new ad roll along the lines of “Two parties for corruption, one party for positive change.”