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A
AlvinofDiaspar
Guest
billonlogan:
Taking data from a few years and extrapolating it as a decadal/century long trend is rather bad science. I also believe the contemporary consensus among climatologists is the long term trend of high sea surface temperature will lead to more active hurricane seasons, and not how last year's events were a direct result of global warming.
AoD
Taking data from a few years and extrapolating it as a decadal/century long trend is rather bad science. I also believe the contemporary consensus among climatologists is the long term trend of high sea surface temperature will lead to more active hurricane seasons, and not how last year's events were a direct result of global warming.
AoD
A
Archivistower
Guest
bill, you seem to suggest that immediate weather patterns and storms are evidence of longterm trends in weather, or else there is little point in your post. I believe climate change is a huge issue for us, but not because of any particular group of storms or any particular single phenomenon.
If there are a series of storms, or record-breaking weather somewhere, will we hear from you again that you're now a believer?
If there are a series of storms, or record-breaking weather somewhere, will we hear from you again that you're now a believer?
D
drunknsubmrnr
Guest
Still sold on global warming? Sea surface temperatures are cooler than normal.
I don't think you understand how climatology works.
If there's a year with a lot of storms, it's an imminent prediction of doom. If there's a year without a lot of storms, it's an abberation, and you should take a longer view.
[/sarcasm]
Kevin
A
afransen TO
Guest
Last year's hurricane season is just a useful tool in the global warming fight. It isn't definitive evidence of global warming, though it was probably worse that it would have been without the warming of the earth. It was something tangible, which is exactly what the moronic electorate of the USA (and most of North America) needed to make them think, "Gee, perhaps this global warming thing is real, afterall."
J
jayomatic
Guest
The Hurricane season is just moving into its peak time so i wouldn't make any judgements yet. Who knows, maybe some monster will destroy another coastal region and everyone will be saying the exact same things as last year.
S
scarberiankhatru
Guest
"We have to do something about the storm rate, folks. It's embarrassing."
I'll get right on it.
I'll get right on it.
B
building babel
Guest
You do that. My Martian friends tell me that Earth is a laughing stock throughout the solar system because of this.
J
JoeyCuppa
Guest
Maybe Bill doesn't understand that more and more CO2 in the atmosphere means more than extra-destructive hurricanes, although his little link only shows that ocean temperatures are the same, or a little cooler than... when? It doesn't even say.
If you look at this page on the same site, you see that ocean temperatures are still plenty warm, mostly in the 28C+ range down where hurricanes form, and 30C in the Gulf of Mexico, where U.S. coastal cities and oil refineries are.
Even if we don't get extra hurricanes, warming of the earth means ice melts, sea levels rise, and all of a sudden we can't visit the Florida Keys anymore.
Or, glaciers and snowpacks in mountains melt and large cities are deprived of the annual spring thaw that provides their drinking water (apparently, Lake Meade at Hoover Damn, which provides water for the Las Vegas area is snow-pack fed... what happens when that snow-pack is permanently gone?).
I also have a concern about CO2 and, well, being able to breath.
If you look at this page on the same site, you see that ocean temperatures are still plenty warm, mostly in the 28C+ range down where hurricanes form, and 30C in the Gulf of Mexico, where U.S. coastal cities and oil refineries are.
Even if we don't get extra hurricanes, warming of the earth means ice melts, sea levels rise, and all of a sudden we can't visit the Florida Keys anymore.
Or, glaciers and snowpacks in mountains melt and large cities are deprived of the annual spring thaw that provides their drinking water (apparently, Lake Meade at Hoover Damn, which provides water for the Las Vegas area is snow-pack fed... what happens when that snow-pack is permanently gone?).
I also have a concern about CO2 and, well, being able to breath.
B
bizorky
Guest
If you look at the general climate data you will see that there was a considerable cooling trend from 1940 to the late 1970's. This trend was global and generated considerable concern at the time. It was a research topic of great interest at both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, where a growing number of scientists were concerned that a new ice age was looming. One noticeable fact was the increased number of violent tornadoes that were appearing, and there was a demand for better radar systems for predicting such events.
Historically speaking, from the mid 1930's, the quantity of human-produced C02 grew at a massive rate, due in large part to the Second World War. Yet for four decades, average global temperatures fell.
As for C02 causing hurricanes, this is incorrect. Hurricanes and other storms are phenomena that reduce heat gradients. Their source of energy is the sun.
Historically speaking, from the mid 1930's, the quantity of human-produced C02 grew at a massive rate, due in large part to the Second World War. Yet for four decades, average global temperatures fell.
As for C02 causing hurricanes, this is incorrect. Hurricanes and other storms are phenomena that reduce heat gradients. Their source of energy is the sun.
J
JoeyCuppa
Guest
As for C02 causing hurricanes, this is incorrect. Hurricanes and other storms are phenomena that reduce heat gradients. Their source of energy is the sun.
If CO2 helps the atmosphere get warmer, in turn raising ocean temperature, the storms can gain more heat energy from the water. You're right that the energy source is the sun, and as that energy gets trapped on earth instead of bouncing back into space, things are going to heat up.
U
unimaginative2
Guest
I don't think you understand how climatology works.
If there's a year with a lot of storms, it's an imminent prediction of doom. If there's a year without a lot of storms, it's an abberation, and you should take a longer view.
[/sarcasm]
Kevin
You dismiss any civilian's comments on the military as uninformed and irrelevant, yet you consider your beliefs on global warming to be superior to those of virtually every professional working in the field?
D
drunknsubmrnr
Guest
You dismiss any civilian's comments on the military as uninformed and irrelevant, yet you consider your beliefs on global warming to be superior to those of virtually every professional working in the field?
i) I don't dismiss every civilian's comments, just the uninformed irrelevant ones.
ii) Climatologists have NOT reached a consensus on global warming. Therefore, characterising the position as "virtually every professional" is not accurate.
Kevin
C
Chuck100
Guest
All that last year (and this year) did was prove the relationship between ocean temperature and the severity of the hurricane season we'll experience. It does nothing to prove or disprove global warming. It does however suggest that if global warming were to exist, and if it were to increase water temperatures, then the spin off would be more storms that have a greater probability of being super hurricanes.
Also, it takes much more than water temperature to create the perfect storm. And even if there is a perfect storm, there's no guarantee it will even make landfall before dissipating substantially. Therefore I think that the best thing we can take from this is that storms of any strength can occur anywhere due to natural fluctuations in weather patterns, and therefore the smartest thing to do is avoid buying property in hurricane prone areas.
Also, it takes much more than water temperature to create the perfect storm. And even if there is a perfect storm, there's no guarantee it will even make landfall before dissipating substantially. Therefore I think that the best thing we can take from this is that storms of any strength can occur anywhere due to natural fluctuations in weather patterns, and therefore the smartest thing to do is avoid buying property in hurricane prone areas.
A
andreapalladio
Guest
Climatologists have NOT reached a consensus on global warming. Therefore, characterising the position as "virtually every professional" is not accurate.
That, of course, is a complete and utter lie, perpatrated and spread by the military-industrial complex.