mdrejhon
Senior Member
As a longtime armchair GO analyst around here (including my well-known GO article from 2015), I have discovered lots of evidence that Metrolinx is now seriously considering battery trains for Kitchener Line.
Summary (For Those Unfamiliar With Battery Trains):
Metrolinx is now studying electrification between Kitchener and Georgetown! There is a public meeting on November 20.
Freight Owned Section In Middle of Kitchener Line
As we already know, CN owns freight section.
Metrolinx owns Kitchener thru (near) Georgetown, and from (near) Bramalea through Union.
As CN is pretty stubborn against catenary at the current moment, battery trains are one of the few technologies that can hop the CN section, other than dual-mode locomotives.
There is Precedent About Metrolinx Studying Battery Trains
(i.e. Recharge under Catenary On Both Sides of CN)
Metrolinx is definitely known to be paying attention. As of 2019, the technology is probably finally mature enough in the Horizon (Expansion 2028 service date).
In year 2010, battery train technology was not sufficiently mature, but definitely is by 2025-2030.
There is an earlier 2010 Electrification Study where Metrolinx mentions battery trains.
And also,
Battery Trains Are Mature Enough By GO Expansion 2028 Service Date
There are now emerging battery train options that will pop on the market between now and 2028. Right now, Germany is about to deploy a 160kph battery train that recharges under catenary, to hop large catenary-free section (>70km), in a city with similar weather (Germany)
Batteries Are Now Durable Enough
Also -- The economic case is much better than many estimated, given newer million-mile-rated lithium batteries are being developed (permitting long lifetime service capacities, equalling to about 50,000 trips through a 20 kilometers catenary-free segment, per trainset).
The new batteries are now practically half a service lifetime for GO trains -- assuming 8 transits across the 20km catenary-free gap per day (a very generous per-trainset estimate) back and fourth, would lead to a 15 year lifetime for modern million-mile batteries, and even that may still go beyond that with good state-of-charge management. If it's only 4 transits per day per train set, that's theoretically potentially a 30 year life cycle for the battery!
By 2028 or 2035, when Kitchener is electrified (Except CN), there is no question about battery durability that will be available.
What About Dual-Modes?
That is a backup option. However, economic efficiencies of battery-backed catenary trains (where the battery behaves like an uninterruptible power supply for a catenary train, to hop short catenary-free sections) are starting to show surprising benefits.
The Georgetown corridor Union-to-Pearson requires extremely high capacities in the upcoming GO Expansion. There is an extremely high number of trains per hour in the GO Expansion Business Case, especially when you also include VIA and UPX type service plans, as well as possible future provisions for frequent intercity train service (thru to London -- whether be HFR, HSR, or GO).
Credit: 2018 GO Expansion Business Case, Page 44. Obviously rough, skimpy and incomplete -- but shows metro-like frequencies being developed. Does not include new stations like Liberty, Breslau, Eglinton -- and doesn't cover UPX/VIA -- so heavily subject to change. The point being, there's a lot of service upgrades coming within 1 to 2 decades, essentially the arrival of metro-like frequencies to GO).
Such a complicated service mix as seen in this diagram, can be somewhat simplified with a battery train (even if initially dual mode electric locomotives are used).
Dual modes don't seem to warrant funding expensive electrification in Kitchener, but they could be initially introduced at the beginning while battery train technologies improve as an option -- e.g. dual modes 2028 and battery trains 2035+.
Low-Risk Technology Capability Has Arrived: Speed, Distance, Capacity, Weather-Resistance
Speed: There are now battery train technologies that go 160kph.
Capacity / Distance: The 20 kilometer distance of the CN-owned freight section is pretty small, and easily covered by a battery train that recharges Kitchener-Georgetown and Bramalea-Union. Current battery-train routes are now being deployed that have much larger catenary-free sections than this. The horsepower (multiple megawatts) and speed (160kph) is now well within the GO performance envelope.
Weather: Nonissue. Battery-warmers are built into battery trains, kept warm while going under catenary, as tested in Europe. This keeps capacity high, while “recharging-on-the-go” in motion.
Maintenance/Operating Costs: Shockingly lower, similiar to an EMU. There are many Tesla cars zooming through 100,000km odometer with no maintenance except tire and brakes. An electric vehicle has few moving parts. Batteries add no additional moving parts unlike a hybrid. The complicated multi-piston-engine nature of a DEMU means a battery train has less than 1/10th the moving parts of a DEMU or even a DMU like Union Pearson Express. Dual modes have more moving parts than a regular locomotive. The economics were a breakthrough discovery in Europe, creating sudden enthusiasm for battery trains which will develop really rapidly in the 2020s. Homer Simpson duh zero brainer.
Recharging Time: Non-issue. Battery trains recharge on the fly while going under catenary, and sufficient catenary exists in existing GO Expansion plan to have zero charging downtime. Also, sufficient safety margins now exist for stalled trains (including heating mid-winter) if stuck. The Brampton section is only 20km, and the German battery train is going to hop 70km in similiar weather without catenary. So we have a bigger safety margin here. And side bonus, battery means trains can reach the next station during a power outage.
Train Size: A wildcard is the size of battery trains (single deck versus doubledeck, and lengths) but GO is already planning shorter trains during offpeak operations, as seen in multiple GO documents -- for example, 4-coach EMUs and 8-coach EMUs have been frequently mentioned in many Metrolinx documents, and Metrolinx has frequently considered single-deck EMUs for offpeak metro-style operation. (UPX should have used longer trains though...). It is anticipated there is going to be a boom of availability of battery trains in the 2020s-2030s window, and vendors may bid to electrify GO with the battery train option.
Flexibility: It's Much Less Risky Than Hydrail
Metrolinx is also studying hydrail. Standard catenary technology means regular EMUs and dual-modes are also options. EMUs can still be used on Bramalea-to-Union, and for UPX.
Dual-modes can also hop the catenary-free section. Existing infrastructure is still useful even if battery train technology ends up not yet being good enough specs, nor mature enough yet. And battery trains can come later, too.
And if the Freight Bypass is later built (that will take time), and Brampton is electrified, then battery trains can be redeployed on other lines such as Hamilton or Bowmanville, etc. Such flexibility lowers risks!
My Conclusion
Although Metrolinx has not explicitly specifically mentioned battery trains specifically for Kitchener, the evidence is increasingly becoming clear that it is a newly legitimate option.
Dual modes are also an option. Having only dual-modes as an option, is probably not enough to make Metrolinx prioritize studying electrification in Kitchener-Georgetown.
However, I believe that the combined widening choice (battery trains & dual modes) has given Metrolinx the confidence necessary to study electrifying beyond former freight limits.
Summary (For Those Unfamiliar With Battery Trains):
- Battery trains have arrived in Europe that goes 160kph
- Battery trains can be "recharged-on-the-fly" under standard catenary.
- Metrolinx owns trackage in Kitchener and Toronto but not in Brampton. CN owns a section that can't be electrified.
- Batteries can hop this section.
- Gigafactories that makes batteries for Tesla cars have massively increased battery train economics in 2019+
- Battery trains are much less risky than hydrail, as they utilize existing OCS infrastructure.
Metrolinx is now studying electrification between Kitchener and Georgetown! There is a public meeting on November 20.
Freight Owned Section In Middle of Kitchener Line
As we already know, CN owns freight section.
Metrolinx owns Kitchener thru (near) Georgetown, and from (near) Bramalea through Union.
As CN is pretty stubborn against catenary at the current moment, battery trains are one of the few technologies that can hop the CN section, other than dual-mode locomotives.
There is Precedent About Metrolinx Studying Battery Trains
(i.e. Recharge under Catenary On Both Sides of CN)
Metrolinx is definitely known to be paying attention. As of 2019, the technology is probably finally mature enough in the Horizon (Expansion 2028 service date).
In year 2010, battery train technology was not sufficiently mature, but definitely is by 2025-2030.
There is an earlier 2010 Electrification Study where Metrolinx mentions battery trains.
And also,
Battery Trains Are Mature Enough By GO Expansion 2028 Service Date
There are now emerging battery train options that will pop on the market between now and 2028. Right now, Germany is about to deploy a 160kph battery train that recharges under catenary, to hop large catenary-free section (>70km), in a city with similar weather (Germany)
Stadler signs €600m contract with NAH.SH
German public transport authority Schleswig Holstein (NAH.SH) has awarded Stadler a €600m contract for the supply of 55 battery-powered FLIRT Akku multiple units.
www.railway-technology.com
Batteries Are Now Durable Enough
Also -- The economic case is much better than many estimated, given newer million-mile-rated lithium batteries are being developed (permitting long lifetime service capacities, equalling to about 50,000 trips through a 20 kilometers catenary-free segment, per trainset).
The new batteries are now practically half a service lifetime for GO trains -- assuming 8 transits across the 20km catenary-free gap per day (a very generous per-trainset estimate) back and fourth, would lead to a 15 year lifetime for modern million-mile batteries, and even that may still go beyond that with good state-of-charge management. If it's only 4 transits per day per train set, that's theoretically potentially a 30 year life cycle for the battery!
By 2028 or 2035, when Kitchener is electrified (Except CN), there is no question about battery durability that will be available.
What About Dual-Modes?
That is a backup option. However, economic efficiencies of battery-backed catenary trains (where the battery behaves like an uninterruptible power supply for a catenary train, to hop short catenary-free sections) are starting to show surprising benefits.
The Georgetown corridor Union-to-Pearson requires extremely high capacities in the upcoming GO Expansion. There is an extremely high number of trains per hour in the GO Expansion Business Case, especially when you also include VIA and UPX type service plans, as well as possible future provisions for frequent intercity train service (thru to London -- whether be HFR, HSR, or GO).
Credit: 2018 GO Expansion Business Case, Page 44. Obviously rough, skimpy and incomplete -- but shows metro-like frequencies being developed. Does not include new stations like Liberty, Breslau, Eglinton -- and doesn't cover UPX/VIA -- so heavily subject to change. The point being, there's a lot of service upgrades coming within 1 to 2 decades, essentially the arrival of metro-like frequencies to GO).
Such a complicated service mix as seen in this diagram, can be somewhat simplified with a battery train (even if initially dual mode electric locomotives are used).
Dual modes don't seem to warrant funding expensive electrification in Kitchener, but they could be initially introduced at the beginning while battery train technologies improve as an option -- e.g. dual modes 2028 and battery trains 2035+.
Low-Risk Technology Capability Has Arrived: Speed, Distance, Capacity, Weather-Resistance
Speed: There are now battery train technologies that go 160kph.
Capacity / Distance: The 20 kilometer distance of the CN-owned freight section is pretty small, and easily covered by a battery train that recharges Kitchener-Georgetown and Bramalea-Union. Current battery-train routes are now being deployed that have much larger catenary-free sections than this. The horsepower (multiple megawatts) and speed (160kph) is now well within the GO performance envelope.
Weather: Nonissue. Battery-warmers are built into battery trains, kept warm while going under catenary, as tested in Europe. This keeps capacity high, while “recharging-on-the-go” in motion.
Maintenance/Operating Costs: Shockingly lower, similiar to an EMU. There are many Tesla cars zooming through 100,000km odometer with no maintenance except tire and brakes. An electric vehicle has few moving parts. Batteries add no additional moving parts unlike a hybrid. The complicated multi-piston-engine nature of a DEMU means a battery train has less than 1/10th the moving parts of a DEMU or even a DMU like Union Pearson Express. Dual modes have more moving parts than a regular locomotive. The economics were a breakthrough discovery in Europe, creating sudden enthusiasm for battery trains which will develop really rapidly in the 2020s. Homer Simpson duh zero brainer.
Recharging Time: Non-issue. Battery trains recharge on the fly while going under catenary, and sufficient catenary exists in existing GO Expansion plan to have zero charging downtime. Also, sufficient safety margins now exist for stalled trains (including heating mid-winter) if stuck. The Brampton section is only 20km, and the German battery train is going to hop 70km in similiar weather without catenary. So we have a bigger safety margin here. And side bonus, battery means trains can reach the next station during a power outage.
Train Size: A wildcard is the size of battery trains (single deck versus doubledeck, and lengths) but GO is already planning shorter trains during offpeak operations, as seen in multiple GO documents -- for example, 4-coach EMUs and 8-coach EMUs have been frequently mentioned in many Metrolinx documents, and Metrolinx has frequently considered single-deck EMUs for offpeak metro-style operation. (UPX should have used longer trains though...). It is anticipated there is going to be a boom of availability of battery trains in the 2020s-2030s window, and vendors may bid to electrify GO with the battery train option.
Flexibility: It's Much Less Risky Than Hydrail
Metrolinx is also studying hydrail. Standard catenary technology means regular EMUs and dual-modes are also options. EMUs can still be used on Bramalea-to-Union, and for UPX.
Dual-modes can also hop the catenary-free section. Existing infrastructure is still useful even if battery train technology ends up not yet being good enough specs, nor mature enough yet. And battery trains can come later, too.
And if the Freight Bypass is later built (that will take time), and Brampton is electrified, then battery trains can be redeployed on other lines such as Hamilton or Bowmanville, etc. Such flexibility lowers risks!
My Conclusion
Although Metrolinx has not explicitly specifically mentioned battery trains specifically for Kitchener, the evidence is increasingly becoming clear that it is a newly legitimate option.
Dual modes are also an option. Having only dual-modes as an option, is probably not enough to make Metrolinx prioritize studying electrification in Kitchener-Georgetown.
However, I believe that the combined widening choice (battery trains & dual modes) has given Metrolinx the confidence necessary to study electrifying beyond former freight limits.
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