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wow. quiet out there. lowest sales since before 2004, and 10% below the 2nd lowest total of the last 9 years (2010) and 2nd highest # of new listings in the last 9 years (2nd to 2008) total inventory has gone from the lowest in 9 years (in January) to the highest since 2008 (in Sept)...

Ok, let's try this a different way. Lets say that the mortgage rate remains at 3% indefinately. And lets say you pay 0% income tax on the revenue net of expenses (remember, principal paydown is not an "expense" for tax) And let's say you follow your buy and hold strategy indefinately. And...

You're missing a lot. First, you've not reflected the lost opportunity cost of the investment return on your $120k downpayment. Second, you've not reflected a higher interest rate upon renewal after 5 years (4%? 6%?) Third, you're comment that the mortgage is "32%" below the purchse price after...

Yes, agreed, 9% unemployment is irrelevant. You have a bright future as an economist. Actually, It's surprising that more politicians don't make this point. Have you considered a career as a campaign strategist? ps. What level of unemployment, pray tell, would you say does mean something...

Ha. Touche.

Ric, a generous offer, but one that needs to provide us more foundation for our laughter. Perhaps we can "laugh you out of the room as your strip naked and walk around the DT core with a sign around your neck saying "Hear ye, hear ye, $400psf has arrived. Let the apocalypse begin" Or something...

The Economist link provided shows a Household Debt to GDP ratio of 91%. The media is referencing average Household Debt to Household Income at a ratio of 152% GDP is not the same as Household Income. Consider the following link from StatsCan that shows the components of GDP...

I would agree that hyper-inflation (or even anything beyond 2%) is unlikely. But ultimately house prices don't move in response to interest rates. Rather they move in response to the demand vs supply. Low interest rates do indeed juice demand (especially when those rates are decreasing)...

Canada housing prices in 2012 are higher than the US in 2006. And unlike the US in 2006, we don't have the benefit of lowering mortgage rates to relieve mortgage costs for at risk homeowners.

Graph of US house prices back to 1890 from Shiller http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/2011-Case-SHiller-updated.png

000, two points First, those graphs don't adjust for inflation. Second, those graphs cover only the upward portion of the real estate price cycle. A more accurate presentation would go from peak to peak, or trough to trough (typically an 18 year cycle - read more here in this prophetic article...

Chris, I understand that English may not be your native language. So just an fyi on the vernacular use of the phrase "dump your load"...

According to a mortgage calculator, your friend apparently got a 1.1% mortgage rate. https://www.rbcroyalbank.com/cgi-bin/mortgage/mpc/start.cgi

$950 a month = $11,400 a year 20 years x $11,400=$228,000 Unless he received a negative mortgage rate, its not possible to pay off $250k in 20 years at $950 month.

Ahem, don't change the subject. Please explain your mortgage at $950 a month to pay of the interest and principle on $250k in 20 years. ps. No, I don't think prices will increase, adjusted for inflation, in either the next 5 or 10 years...

New housing stock has exceeded population growth in Toronto over the past decade. There has been no population "boom" in Toronto. Immigration/population growth has been steady for more than a decade. I've posted supporting data sources on this before (from Stats Can). Those who are...

Rents have been flat for the past 30 years (adjusted for inflation) http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/ResidentialRealEstate/RentIndex/rent-index-toronto.pdf While there may be some rent increases happening now, there is no evidence over the past 30 years that would be any more than a short...

Your assumptions produce an annual pre-tax return of $9k on your $100k investment (downpayment) Here are some problems with your assumptions 1. Acquisition costs (land transfer costs, etc). 2. Sale costs (if you ever wish to sell) 3. Vacancy costs. (it is unrealistic to presume 100% occupancy...

Interested (and others), the following link is where I go to find information. http://www.google.ca/

Guava.ca is the best source for quickly assessing normal seasonal variances http://guava.ca/ It shows a normal July to Aug volume decrease of 8-10%. This year was 12%. Current Aug sales are the lowest of the past 6 years (which is as far back as Guava goes)