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  1. D

    Renting in DT Toronto - What's the deal?

    Yes, those prices you've quoted sound normal. MLS deals are brokered by agents, but you don't need one as the renter. In fact, it may be better for you not to use one, because then the listing agent gets to keep 100% of the 1-month commission instead of splitting it with your agent. Thus, the...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Ahem, would have been funnier if you had embedded the picture, instead of the link. Dec TREB data is out. Sales down 20%, average prices up 6.5%, Days on Market up from 32 to 36 YOY data consistent between condo/non-condo, CityTO/Non-CityTO...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    5. Because it is using post-tax income, it doesn't reflect that combined federal/provincial income tax rates for the average worker dropped about 20% from 1996-2006. Thus post-tax income since 1996 is approx 8% higher due to the tax cuts, which understates the visual appearance in the graph of...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Some quick notes on that chart: 1. Assumes a consistent 25% downpayment over the years since 1991. As such, its not consistent with what has happened in the market where the average downpayment has decreased, and thus homeowners are paying more interest and have more principal to repay over...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    RBT, thanks for the extra detail. Two notes on your calculation. First, if you plan to move in the next 5 years regardless, then it will skew your results to assign the move costs/transaction fees to only the 1st scenario. Also, it might be possible to sell your unit to an investor, and...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    RBT, I'm not sure I understand what you are writing here. Are you referring to two scenarios, one where you sell and rent, and the other where you retain your unmortgaged home for 6 years and experience price decreases per the graph? If so, did you reflect the 6 years investment income on the...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Interesting analysis of 48 housing bubbles. http://leithwheelerblog.sitecm.com/uncategorized/housing-bubble/#more-341
  8. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    I've heard that. But I've also heard there is no Santa Claus, and we all know that's crazy talk.
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Speaking of babies and misfortune...check out this youtube video of an eagle in Montreal trying to snatch a toddler. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CE0Q904gtMI If that child was 5lbs less, the story ends differently. Quite a video. (watch the slow motion)
  10. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    December mid-month figures are out, consistent with recent months. Sales down 16%, prices up 3% YOY http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2012/pdf/midMonth_Dec2012.pdf
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    I don't think there is any reinsurance. If there was Reinsurance, it would be mentioned in their annual report. See paragraph 7 of the following commentary from the Fraser Institute: http://www.fraserinstitute.org/research-news/news/display.aspx?id=18256 The government should also direct CMHC...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    ST, your theory is that the pre-2006 population have essentially remained in the pre-2006 dwellings, that that the new population have all moved into the new dwellings. I would think that is unlikely. Also, just to note that once again you've quoted my 2001-2011 statistics, and then responded...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    In the interests of clarify, a summary: 1. BofCanada says that the City of Toronto Condo market has been overbuilding. 2. UrbanNation attempts to refute this, quoting stats for the Toronto CMA, all dwellings. 3. I note the difference in the stat basis between #1 & #2, and reference the...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    My stats are 2001-2011. You have quoted 2006-2011 Also my stats quoted "dwellings". You have quoted "dwellings occupied by usual residents" (ie a subset of dwellings that excludes basement apartments that enter through house, etc). Note the difference between the two as per footnotes #2...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    StatsCan Stats 2001-2011 Toronto CMA Population Increase 19% Toronto CMA Dwelling Increase 24% City of Toronto Population Increase 5% City of Toronto Dwelling Increase 14% Toronto CMA(non City of TO) Population Increase 33% Toronto CMA(non City of TO) Dwelling Increase 33% ps. Toronto CMA is...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Saw this blog post: http://urbanationinc.blogspot.ca/2012/12/where-is-false-and-twisted-info-coming_7.html?spref=tw Where is the False and Twisted Info Coming From? - Part 2 [I]This post is a follow-up to yesterday's on some of the false and twisted info that appeared in articles published...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    RRR/Interested, yes, lol, the insurance-ese has gotten ramped up a little bit. Sorry about that. I think ISYM and I are saying basically the same thing in terms of the accounting/reserving of the CMHC. As far as a simpler answer to the question of what would it take for the CMHC to go into...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Actually, I think I mis-represented this. Consider the example of a $10k premium, of which $1k has been earned (and partially applied to the $1b claim reserve) and the other $9k is in the UPR. If that mortgage defaults, then the future exposure would end and all of the $9k for that policy...
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    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Interested, I think the figures you referenced are for the 30+ day delinquency rates. I found this showing the serious delinquency rates (90+ days) at about 3% currently. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/11/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-mortgage-serious.html...

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