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  1. D

    Why did the market crash in the 80s?

    Yes, for local buyers there is recourse, although practically speaking it is difficult to enforce recourse on foreign buyers Inflation 1985 to 1989 was indeed under 5%, whereas annual RE increases were a crazy 25% a year. However, if you look at the full RE cycle, the trough to peak price...
  2. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    The CMHC doesn't "make housing affordable for homebuyers". Rather, it makes mortgages more available by providing mortgage insurance. Housing affordability is currently close to the most unaffordable level of the last 20 years. (despite historical lows in mortgage rates)...
  3. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    + the following
  4. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    From the link you posted, and from the CPI data here http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/ 1966-1996 1.5% net of inflation 1966-2011 2.0% net of inflation From the link you posted "*NOTE: Due to changes in the TREB market area over time, caution should be exercised...
  5. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Eug, when comparing RE price increases over many years, its important to measure peak-to-peak, and trough-to-trough. My guess is that you're using a data source that quotes up until the present, which is a peak and thus overstates the figure. If you had used the same data, but ending at the...
  6. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Wow. What a brutal month. Some notes 1. Inventory usually drops approx 5% June to July. This year, the inventory decreased by 0.1%...
  7. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Such a delicate little flower. You poor thing.
  8. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Dlam, perhaps you're mis-stating what you are trying to calculate. But if the "future value in 2014" is $177 (vs $100 in 2008). Then a decrease from $177 to $100 is a 43% decrease.
  9. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Dlam, leaving aside whether one is an optomist/pessimist, bull/bear, your math and facts are wrong in several places. 1. The "10%" increases have been gross of inflation, so the true increases were 8% 2. Prices did not increase 10% from 2008 to 2009, they decreased by 10% 3. Nobody, even...
  10. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    CN, I agree with you. The US 10 yr yield is back in the dumpster at below 1.9%, and there are rumblings of QE3. I don't think we will see rates back up for some time. I think the "recovery" was bought and paid for with borrowed Gov't money and QE 1/2 and that we'll be feeling the effect of...
  11. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    CDR, thx for the analysis. I think the some of outlying regions had their borders expanded, 2001-2006 and that would account for a significant part of the large increases in residents and dwellings in the non-city of toronto regions.
  12. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    ILuvTo, while I agree that renters in condos is probably higher than 22%, I think you're comparing apples to oranges. Apples-68% renters in C01 all property types in 2006 Oranges-22% renters in City of Toronto Condos in 2011 C01 is 5% of the City of Toronto. Home ownership rates...
  13. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Interested, the original article from yesterday referenced the "overly strong" interpretation which stated a 25% vacancy. I hadn't yet read the new article which came out this morning, and I agree that it clearly references 22% investor owned and presumably rented. Notwithstanding that, it...
  14. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    ILuvTO, yes, I think you've misread the article. I'm not sure where you get your quote that "only 20% (I assume of net new condos) are occupied by renters". The article was saying that 22% of owned condos are sitting empty (ie occupied neither by the owner, nor a renter). The article...
  15. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    If it was 4% consistently, then yes that would be stable. But it has not been so. Putting it another way, you're confusing the difference between speed and acceleration/deceleration. Or looking at it another, much more dramatic way... If someone jumps feet first off a building, then the...
  16. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    An anecdotal story... An artist friend of mine and his gf bought a fixer upper east end townhouse in March of 2009 at $330k with 5% down. They just sold at $550k, for a $150k profit (net of reno/transaction costs), and are moving to Hamilton where they are buying a larger nicer property at...
  17. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Ok, just to clarify. He accurately forecast the US RE price correction in starting with his blog in 2004. So you acknowledge that he was right about the US, but contend that the same analysis will produce an incorrect conclusion about Canada. And because you contend he is wrong about...
  18. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Huh? :confused: You might want to re-reread the article about "Bubble Ben". Perhaps you were in a hurry when you read it the first time and missed a page or two?
  19. D

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Ah yes, nothing like the sweet satisfaction at the (perceived) misfortune of others.:rolleyes: And tell me, you odious troll, where was the money of those "on the sidelines" over the past three years? Equities? Bonds? Gold? Oil. Yes, they sure have missed out. Such an idiot.
  20. D

    Future of Toronto condo prices

    I've lived in Toronto my entire life, mostly in the downtown core, (Annex, Queen West, etc), and I've traveled extensively worldwide (NYC, London, Dubai, Paris, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Germany). Toronto has a lot of good qualities - safe, clean, fair, lots of trees/parks, efficient and with a...

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