News   Jul 11, 2024
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  1. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Once again, my question to all of you who claim that short to mid-term outlook is rousy: how so, when our personal debt loads are at insane levels? Forget everything else. This one factor makes me a firm believer that there will be a significant adj soon. We are in early stages now. Too many...
  2. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Sorry, not following your logic. Young people have more debt, but they also get lots of money from their parents, right? So if they are getting all this cash, why are they having this record debt?
  3. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Question for all r/e agents making posts here over the last couple of days: record high level of personal debt in Canada, especially in large cities, compared to both Canadian historical levels and other nations these days - do you see any problem with that in relation to r/e market?
  4. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Mike, with all due respect, market is showing some weaknesses. It's easy to spot on the graph for 2012 that prices/sales peaked some time ago and are declining now. You can't deny that.
  5. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    I find the first graph very interesting. Pattern is almost identical for Van, TO and Montreal. Prices always moved in the same direction....
  6. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Condo George, are you still following this thread?
  7. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    ISYM, yes, it would be interesting to find out if and how much is re-insured. General question for you: it seems to me, and please correct me if I am wrong here, that your position is that the whole CMHC system is fairly stable. So why are they sticking with $600 billion limit? Why not...
  8. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Fair enough. My source is a mortgage broker. But I didn't get the details that Tricky posted (5 mortgages, $2 million max). It was more of a general statement that there will be some new rules possibly limiting the number of mortgages. As I pointed out, I also question some of this stuff ...
  9. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    I've heard about some of these as well. Grapevine, no source. How they define "person" is crucial here. Individuals only? Corporations? ISYM, if you read this: can you please answer my question from my previous post please (CHMC re-insured?)
  10. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    ISYM, first of all, thank you for your explanation. I found it very informative. But I'd appreciate a further comment on the following sentence: "It is a number consisting of the in-force mortgage principal and interest payout net of recoveries either reinsured or through subrogation (sale...
  11. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Can't find any posts by Condo George lately ... I'd like to hear his assessment of our current situation. What to expect over the next several months? And more importantly, what happens comes April/May next year?
  12. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    A bit more on this. 16% assumes everything else stays the same (other than changes introduced by Flaherty). But what if interest rates move just a little bit up? Or prices go down, even moderately, and it is time to renew? Number quickly goes up as I have a feeling that significant % just barely...
  13. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    If you are correct that means that my old friend KA1 owes me a drink for guessing the timing right! I also said at least 25% general GTA decline, so if that also happens, he will owe me another one!
  14. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    First number (16%) is higher than what I've expected. Assuming the same % applies to most of the recent record breaking years ... it's just not good.
  15. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/flahertys-rule-changes-will-bite-hard-mortgage-brokers/article5410889/ "The CAAMP report suggests that more than 16 per cent of the high-ratio borrowers (that is, those with a down payment of less than 20 per cent) who...
  16. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    KA1, CN, Interested, what do you think? First serious cracks on the horizon? Dare to predict the next 6 months? I stand by my prediction given in March of last year: 18-24 months for clear cracks to show up. So here we are, 18 months later... Total damage over several years 25%+ from the...
  17. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Two different ratios. Both showing the same thing - numbers are bad! Second highest household debt on that chart is not bad? *****Just noticed that Daveto already pointed that out.
  18. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    I assumed everybody on this thread knows these numbers by now ... they are quoted daily in every newspaper in Toronto.
  19. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/09/daily-chart-10 Interesting to see where we stand compared to other countries, especially when it comes to household total debt. I still maintain that the shock in interest rates is not necessary to provoke serious cracks in our "rock solid"...
  20. R

    Baby, we got a bubble!?

    Maybe we should contact Mr. Louie and tell him that Aura penthouse is still for sale?

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