Toronto Forêt | 144.95m | 41s | Canderel | BDP Quadrangle

the excavator was digging today
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SaugeenJunction said:
Spoke to two of the workers on site today, and “groundbreaking is expected very soon”.
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No permits issued yet.

The 'New Building' permit does show activity as at April 9th, which is the first activity on any permit in awhile.

***

I still don't see how they could have sales here to support this or get construction financing, but maybe @ProjectEnd knows.
 
Build it and they will come! Both buyers and permits, that is... /s
 
ProjectEnd said:
~35% currently. Lots of ways to get inventive to get that number up but I'm not personally aware of anything either party is pursuing right now.
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With RE reports indicating 8 years of condo inventory, either this is posturing in line with HST rebate and a wink or two from politicians and bureaucrats or perhaps builder is reckless and suicidal to risk their business for one project in a dead market. Perhaps they are out to debunk research reports because they know something that public does not...i wonder
 
arshadrk said:
With RE reports indicating 8 years of condo inventory, either this is posturing in line with HST rebate and a wink or two from politicians and bureaucrats or perhaps builder is reckless and suicidal to risk their business for one project in a dead market. Perhaps they are out to debunk research reports because they know something that public does not...i wonder
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New inventory really starts to dry up by 2028/2029 based on currents starts… maybe they are gambling on that?
 
The Star recently reported that there's 29 months of newly built units at present based on current sales. New supply is indeed projected to dry up completely in 2028.

However, that's also the year when a lot of PBR is planned to start hitting the market and new PBR supply will remain elevated until the early 2030s (aka reduce demand for new and resales as renting makes more sense than $1100 psf precons).

And there's still a lot of unwanted new supply coming online this year (though less than the peak in 2025 after four back to back record years) and yet a bit more in 2027.

The only silver lining is that private equity is poised to buy up a few thousand newly built units this year, and perhaps next year. Along with gradual absorption, I could see the new unit market reaching "balance" in 2028.
 
Undead said:
The Star recently reported that there's 29 months of newly built units at present based on current sales. New supply is indeed projected to dry up completely in 2028.

However, that's also the year when a lot of PBR is planned to start hitting the market and new PBR supply will remain elevated until the early 2030s (aka reduce demand for new and resales as renting makes more sense than $1100 psf precons).

And there's still a lot of unwanted new supply coming online this year (though less than the peak in 2025 after four back to back record years) and yet a bit more in 2027.

The only silver lining is that private equity is poised to buy up a few thousand newly built units this year, and perhaps next year. Along with gradual absorption, I could see the new unit market reaching "balance" in 2028.
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I'd add that the Canadian population is projected to shrink again this year, possibly next year too, and then remain flat or see only slight growth.
While it's true that the supply of new condo units will dry up, we'll still be adding rental units at a pace that likely surpasses population growth for a few more years.
And, let's face it, the units here were intended to be investor owned, de-facto rentals anyways.
So, I'm inclined to think that selling the 65% of units that remain to end users, at the price that they want, isn't going to be a cakewalk - even in 3 or 4 years from now.
But, perhaps they've accounted for that, and don't expect to sell-out until months after the project is finished.
I think "balance" by 2028 is the optimistic case unless there is another meaningful change to immigration policy.
 
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citylights said:
I'd add that the Canadian population is projected to shrink again this year, possibly next year too, and then remain flat or see only slight growth.
While it's true that the supply of new condo units will dry up, we'll still be adding rental units at a pace that likely surpasses population growth for a few more years.
And, let's face it, the units here were intended to be investor owned, de-facto rentals anyways.
So, I'm inclined to think that selling the 65% of units that remain to end users, at the price that they want, isn't going to be a cakewalk - even in 3 or 4 years from now.
But, perhaps they've accounted for that, and don't expect to sell-out until months after the project is finished.
I think "balance" by 2028 is the optimistic case unless there is another meaningful change to immigration policy.
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Agree 100%. I imagine the rental market will remain weak for the next five years because of the factors you explained. The only way rentals "recover" is if the feds boost immigration to even half a percent a year of population growth starting in 2029. And that's dependent on jobs recovering so we can support more population. Definitely far from a done deal at present.
 
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