Roads: GTA West Corridor—Highway 413

[Jolene]

The Bradford bypass is less than 20 kilometres and is expected to cost less than 1 kilometre of subway. It’s more of a midsized project.

The reality is that the province is outspending on transit expansion in the province on about a 6:1 ratio over highway spending.

1. Where are you getting these numbers from? (I'm not doubting necessarily, just curious where you are getting the 6:1 ratio from)
2. Highway spending doesn't include all the funding that goes towards roads and other car infrastructure in general, if we're doing a real apples to apples comparison regarding funding for transit (which oftentimes includes operational costs).
3. I'm curious what the numbers would be like over the last 50 years with respect to transit vs highway/road spending, and how equitable that structure was. It seems like we are finally tackling a public transit backlog after decades of neglect and underfunding, so having a few years of more funding dedicated to transit doesn't really mean things are now on more equitable footing.

One could argue overall mode share for travel via automobiles is much higher - and it is - but that number will only get smaller with much more transit options in place. The GTHA is severely lacking in suitable transit and we're catching up to do maybe the bare minimum that is needed, and as we see with the wavering on GO electrification, even that is being backtracked upon. I can't help but think that funds used to building another giant highway or adding another lane bro (or exuberantly expensive tunnel bro) would be much better spent towards getting more people off of the highways we already have, some of which are the among the largest highways in the world. Doing so would free them up more for the delivery goods and take many cars off of them. It just feels like by building more giant highways, we're only exacerbating the problems we've already made in the past.

 

[narduch]

Thanks innsertnamehere, that was my point

Big deal. The Yonge extension is only 8 KM.

 

[nfitz]

There is also a 2nd major highway project too

At least.

But though they awarded the over $1-billion contract for twinning the Garden City Skyway almost a year ago, I don't think construction starts until this spring. Perhaps they are doing clearing, etc.?

The reality is that the province is outspending on transit expansion in the province on about a 6:1 ratio over highway spending.

The PCs have been touting $30 billion being spent on highway expansion, and cite 755 new lane kilometres since they came to power.

Are they really touting $180 billion for transit?

 

[innsertnamehere]

1. Where are you getting these numbers from? (I'm not doubting necessarily, just curious where you are getting the 6:1 ratio from)
2. Highway spending doesn't include all the funding that goes towards roads and other car infrastructure in general, if we're doing a real apples to apples comparison regarding funding for transit (which oftentimes includes operational costs).
3. I'm curious what the numbers would be like over the last 50 years with respect to transit vs highway/road spending, and how equitable that structure was. It seems like we are finally tackling a public transit backlog after decades of neglect and underfunding, so having a few years of more funding dedicated to transit doesn't really mean things are now on more equitable footing.

One could argue overall mode share for travel via automobiles is much higher - and it is - but that number will only get smaller with much more transit options in place. The GTHA is severely lacking in suitable transit and we're catching up to do maybe the bare minimum that is needed, and as we see with the wavering on GO electrification, even that is being backtracked upon. I can't help but think that funds used to building another giant highway or adding another lane bro (or exuberantly expensive tunnel bro) would be much better spent towards getting more people off of the highways we already have, some of which are the among the largest highways in the world. Doing so would free them up more for the delivery goods and take many cars off of them. It just feels like by building more giant highways, we're only exacerbating the problems we've already made in the past.

https://budget.ontario.ca/2026/pdf/2026-ontario-budget-en.pdf

The 2026 budget has the 10-year capital plan for Transit at $60 billion and 10-year capital plan for highways at $30 billion.

That's only a 2:1 ratio, but the reality is that MTO spends about $2 billion a year ($20 billion in a 10-year horizon) on general maintenance, repaving roads, replacing bridges at end of life, etc - the 10-year capital plan for roads is actually only about $10 billion for expansion.

Comparatively Metrolinx's capital budget is almost entirely expansion as Metrolinx doesn't own most major transit networks other than the GO network. So maybe $55 billion of that $60 billion is expansion.

It might be closer to a 5:1 ratio than 6:1, but that's generally where it's at.

Regarding #2 - yes, municipal roads are not included. But municipal transit is also not included. The TTC capital budget is another $17 billion or so alone! Compared to about $6 billion for municipal roads in Toronto. And that's not even getting into the operational subsidies transit requires over driving, or the fact that the province collects significant revenue through gas taxes to cover the capital and operational spending.

Regarding #3 - the ratio was closer in the past, but Ontario actually spent basically nothing on infrastructure of many kinds from around 1990 through to around 2010. The 407 was a major road built in that time, but it was built through toll funding and thus self-financed. MTO definitely proportionately got more cash than transit at the time.. but not much. MTO managed to build a few rural freeways - the 403 to Brantford, the 416, Highway 11 to North Bay, but rural freeways are actually remarkably cheap (like $10-15 million per kilometer). By 1990 the GTA road network actually looked.. remarkably similar to what it does today minus the 407.

What a lot of people also don't generally realize is that highway projects are generally pretty cheap compared to transit projects. MTO widened 20km of the 401 to a core-collector system (a very complex highway design which means expensive) through Mississauga for $600 million.. They built 407 east, which is 60 kilometres of new urban freeway and five new freeway-freeway interchanges (the most expensive part of highways) for $4 billion! They widened Highway 400 for 20 kilometres for like $200 million!

Meanwhile Metrolinx is spending $300 million a month on the Ontario Line right now..

 

[Civdis]

Big deal. The Yonge extension is only 8 KM.

Sorry, I don't get your point here?

 

[Civdis]

Remember, transit costs much more passenger-km than private vehicles. Studies show government cost of $0.10 - $0.30 per passenger-km for cars vs $0.30 - $0.60 per passenger-km for transit. Don't get me wrong, I am all for transit subsidies because of the non-monetary benefits transit produces, just pointing out the fact that drivers subsidize transit users. I've said it before, it's not an all or nothing argument, we need a diversity transportation modes.

 

[urbanclient]

Its honestly sad to see people who claim to be into Urban issues and the betterment of our city but still be in favour of useless highways. That will be bad for our environment. The pro highway supporters always brush off the environmental aspects, conveniently.

How many people do you think are driving from Milton to say Newmarket for work? I bet that number is very low. Wasting billions of dollars to make it easier for a handful of drivers is plain stupid.

At some point I have to wonder if people have a vested interest in this highway (either working for Ford or for highway contractors).

I live in Vaughan and possibly could benefit from this highway. And even I can see what a waste of resources it is.

Even if you put aside the traffic aspect of this project, this highway will also help promote sprawl. I don't understand how anyone can be in favour of that.

if you don't agree with me, you must be corrupt!

What a great way to look at the world.. I assure you I have no vested interest in this highway beyond being sick of trying to travel around the GTA and wanting it to get easier. Ultimately a City which grows needs more infrastructure - that means new roads, new transit, new housing, the works.

If you want to talk about stopping the GTA's growth, that's another conversation. But under the reality of a growing city, we will need more development land, more infrastructure, and many other things. Perhaps you think strangling traffic will somehow make transit better, but I take an approach that we should be focusing on making transit better in addition to supporting the kinds of trips transit has no hope of addressing.

I tend to agree with @narduch I don't see a pressing need for Hwy. 413 or the Bradford Bypass. The benefit-cost ratio is awful for both. And this 2017 Provincial report citing an American study supports the idea that Ontario does not need more highways (whether or not you believe this conclusion is another thing):

Economic impact of infrastructure investments across asset categories in Ontario

This report examines the long-term quantitative economic impacts of Ontario’s infrastructure investment across a range of asset categories.

www.ontario.ca

On the other hand, I do think infrastructure expansion will eventually be needed in response to population growth. @innsertnamehere

In an ideal world, I'd be wholly against those two projects being done today because they cut through prime farmland while benefiting very few people. Losing farmland like that will lead to more reliance on food imports even sooner than when future population growth materializes. I do not dismiss the suitability of both projects in the future.

Many rural people are against the new highways, it's the trucking companies and real estate developers that want the highways.

The one saving grace is that the authorities have a habit of procrastinating on infrastructure*, therefore it could be better to be early than late for Hwy. 413 and the Bypass. I can only hope it doesn't lead to more financially unsustainable sprawl.

*see: all urban rail transit, e.g. Relief line was proposed in the 1960s https://rccao.com/research/files/TTC-Toronto-Transit.pdf

Are you kidding??? We have one highway being built (barely started) and 4 rapid transit lines!

And what are those rapid transit lines? Ontario Line, Hurontario, Hamilton LRT? Certainly the Hamilton one is not even rapid. IMO it's better to compare new highways to new transit lines and highway widenings & extensions to transit line extensions.

Page 25: https://highway413.ca/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Highway-413-draft-EIAR-December-2025.pdf
-----------------------------------------------

I see this notion that highways and road infrastructure are somehow neglected by the government, while they unfairly subsidize city dwellers with transit. The opposite is true.

Spending-wise, road infrastructure has always been funded more in Canada. Comparing yearly total costs including maintenance, or just capital costs.

Table G1: Gross and Net Expenditures on Transportation by Governments: 2002/03 - 2011/12

https://tc.canada.ca/en/corporate-services/policies/government-spending-transportation-tables-1-6

------------------
2019/20 (gross federal + net provincial/territorial):
Road: $17.924B
Transit: $6.856B

Page 27, "Table G2: Transportation Expenditures and Revenues by Mode and Level of Government, 2010/11 - 2019/20":

https://tc.canada.ca/sites/default/files/2021-06/transportation_in_canada_statistical_addendum.pdf

--------------------

Capital expenditures, infrastructure assets, by function

none

www150.statcan.gc.ca

It also tends to be people living in dense condos that subsidize suburbanites living in detached houses. Someone paying the same $ property tax for a high-rise in Toronto, pays more relative to the services they use than someone paying the same amount in Aurora. We're talking costs to maintain running water, sewage, etc.... Heck, even GO Transit is designed to subsidize suburbanites.

And it's not financially sustainable for municipalities, that's why they jack up development charges etc., just to stay solvent. This further worsens the housing crisis.

The soft costs for a detached house in 2026 are often higher than the total cost of a detached house 20 years ago.

It totally makes sense to move out of downtown since suburban living is subsidized by suckers in the city.

The Growth Ponzi Scheme: A Crash Course | Strong Towns

Ponzi schemes fail because they are built on illusions: there is no there there. So what happens when an entire continent of towns and cities is caught up in a kind of Growth Ponzi Scheme? We are finding out.

www.strongtowns.org

IMO, the two solutions to expensive development charges and/or Ponzi sprawl are:
A) vast majority of future housing being apartments and condo mid&high-rises (which is already what we're trending toward)... OR
B) slow down population growth, so that the economy and wages can catch up so that suburbanites and suburban businesses can afford the property taxes needed to keep municipalities solvent without resorting to astronomical development charges/Ponzi scheming.

You can see which one the Federal and Provincial governments would choose... Absolute GDP growth over everything...

Studies show government cost of $0.10 - $0.30 per passenger-km for cars vs $0.30 - $0.60 per passenger-km for transit.

There is no way those numbers tell the full picture including government costs for road maintenance, traffic services etc. Do you mind giving a source?

 

[Civdis]

I tend to agree with @narduch I don't see a pressing need for Hwy. 413 or the Bradford Bypass. The benefit-cost ratio is awful for both. And this 2011 Provincial report citing an American study supports the idea that Ontario does not need more highways (whether or not you believe this conclusion is another thing):

View attachment 725210

Economic impact of infrastructure investments across asset categories in Ontario

This report examines the long-term quantitative economic impacts of Ontario’s infrastructure investment across a range of asset categories.

www.ontario.ca

On the other hand, I do think infrastructure expansion will eventually be needed in response to population growth. @innsertnamehere

In an ideal world, I'd be wholly against those two projects being done today because they cut through prime farmland while benefiting very few people. Losing farmland like that will lead to more reliance on food imports even sooner than when future population growth materializes. I do not dismiss the suitability of both projects in the future.

Many rural people are against the new highways, it's the trucking companies and real estate developers that want the highways.

The one saving grace is that the authorities have a habit of procrastinating on infrastructure*, therefore it could be better to be early than late for Hwy. 413 and the Bypass. I can only hope it doesn't lead to more financially unsustainable sprawl.

*see: all urban rail transit, e.g. Relief line was proposed in the 1960s https://rccao.com/research/files/TTC-Toronto-Transit.pdf


And what are those rapid transit lines? Ontario Line, Hurontario, Hamilton LRT? Certainly the Hamilton one is not even rapid. IMO it's better to compare new highways to new transit lines and highway widenings & extensions to transit line extensions.

View attachment 725209

Page 25: https://highway413.ca/en/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Highway-413-draft-EIAR-December-2025.pdf
-----------------------------------------------

I see this notion that highways and road infrastructure are somehow neglected by the government, while they unfairly subsidize city dwellers with transit. The opposite is true.

Spending-wise, road infrastructure has always been funded more in Canada. Comparing yearly total costs including maintenance, or just capital costs.

Table G1: Gross and Net Expenditures on Transportation by Governments: 2002/03 - 2011/12
View attachment 725214

https://tc.canada.ca/en/corporate-services/policies/government-spending-transportation-tables-1-6

------------------
2019/20 (gross federal + net provincial/territorial):
Road: $17.924B
Transit: $6.856B

Page 27, "Table G2: Transportation Expenditures and Revenues by Mode and Level of Government, 2010/11 - 2019/20":

https://tc.canada.ca/sites/default/files/2021-06/transportation_in_canada_statistical_addendum.pdf

--------------------
View attachment 725213

Capital expenditures, infrastructure assets, by function

none

www150.statcan.gc.ca

It also tends to be people living in dense condos that subsidize suburbanites living in detached houses. Someone paying the same $ property tax for a high-rise in Toronto, pays more relative to the services they use than someone paying the same amount in Aurora. We're talking costs to maintain running water, sewage, etc.... Heck, even GO Transit is designed to subsidize suburbanites.

And it's not financially sustainable for municipalities, that's why they jack up development charges etc., just to stay solvent. This further worsens the housing crisis.

View attachment 725220

The soft costs for a detached house in 2026 are often higher than the total cost of a detached house 20 years ago.

It totally makes sense to move out of downtown since suburban living is subsidized by suckers in the city.

The Growth Ponzi Scheme: A Crash Course | Strong Towns

Ponzi schemes fail because they are built on illusions: there is no there there. So what happens when an entire continent of towns and cities is caught up in a kind of Growth Ponzi Scheme? We are finding out.

www.strongtowns.org

IMO, the two solutions to expensive development charges are:
A) vast majority of future housing being apartments and condo mid&high-rises (which is already what we're trending toward)... OR
B) slow down population growth, so that the economy and wages can catch up so that suburbanites and suburban businesses can afford the property taxes needed to keep municipalities solvent without resorting to astronomical development charges/Ponzi scheming.

You can see which one the Federal and Provincial governments would choose... Absolute GDP growth over everything...


There is no way those numbers tell the full picture including government costs for road maintenance, traffic services etc. Do you mind giving a source?

You conveniently left out the west extension of line 5, the north extension of line 1 into Richmond Hill and the line 2 Scarborough extension.

 

[narduch]

Is the extension of Line 5 approved?

 

[urbanclient]

IMO it's better to compare new highways to new transit lines and highway widenings & extensions to transit line extensions.

You conveniently left out the west extension of line 5, the north extension of line 1 into Richmond Hill and the line 2 Scarborough extension.

Let me explain, what was happening was people were comparing two new highways to extensions of existing transit lines. To reiterate my earlier point, that's not a fair comparison IMO.

You'd have to compare the countless highway projects ongoing, and soon to be ongoing, to transit expansion that includes extensions.

More to the point, all governments have historically spent more on road infrastructure than transit (and by a large margin). Admittedly this trend might reverse for Ontario at the provincial level by some calculation methods, but that still doesn't take away from the fact that people were comparing 1 / 1.5? highways to "4 rapid transit lines"? As if 4>1 is evidence of some urban transit bias... The number of projects doesn't matter, the costs and benefits do...

If we're really doing number vs. number, look at the number of $100+ million projects here: https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-highway-programs

Transit construction lasts 10+ years (unfortunately 20+ years in the case of GO Expansion), so the capital cost per year is lower than you would think. Highway projects are thankfully not as slow.

Is the extension of Line 5 approved?

The extension to Renforth is being built as we speak, and has been ongoing for a long time... Probably done by 2032+?

 

[Civdis]

Let me explain, what was happening was people were comparing two new highways to extensions of existing transit lines. To reiterate my earlier point, that's not a fair comparison IMO.

You'd have to compare the countless highway projects ongoing, and soon to be ongoing, to transit expansion that includes extensions.

More to the point, all governments have historically spent more on road infrastructure than transit (and by a large margin). Admittedly this trend might reverse for Ontario at the provincial level by some calculation methods, but that still doesn't take away from the fact that people were comparing 1 / 1.5? highways to "4 rapid transit lines"? As if 4>1 is evidence of some urban transit bias... The number of projects doesn't matter, the costs and benefits do...

If we're really doing number vs. number, look at the number of $100+ million projects here: https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-highway-programs

Transit construction lasts 10+ years (unfortunately 20+ years in the case of GO Expansion), so the capital cost per year is lower than you would think. Highway projects are thankfully not as slow.


The extension to Renforth is being built as we speak, and has been ongoing for a long time... Probably done by 2032+?

It is a totally fair comparison. Transit line extensions are basically the same as new highways. Both represent brand new infrastructure where none existed before. Other than the 401 and QEW improvements and a new Garden City Skyway, there really hasn't been a tone of significant highway expansion in the GTA. Certainly nothing compared to that which is being invested in transit (Hamilton LRT, Hurontario LRT, Line 5 west extension, Ontario Line, Line 1 extension, Line 2 extension, GO expansion).

 

[leopetr]

I think the extensions are more comparable to the 400 HOV lanes, the 404 HOV lane extension, or the 400 widening through Barrie

 

[nfitz]

So other than the 400, 401, 404, QEW. I guess that leaves out 427 ... oh wait, they extended that too - only about 4 years ago. 407, 412, 418 ...

Hard to think of what hasn't been widened/extended in GTA in the last few years.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I think the extensions are more comparable to the 400 HOV lanes, the 404 HOV lane extension, or the 400 widening through Barrie

The 400 widening from Vaughan to Newmarket cost $121 million.

That is roughly 1/80th of the cost of the Scarborough Subway extension!

They aren't even close to comparable in term of infrastructure investment.

Highways are actually pretty cheap!

 

[urbancog]

Highways are actually pretty cheap!

But are they economical? What capacity to move people is delivered per $1M expended? And, how much land do they use up that could be used more productively?