The coming $26 billion windfall for the Canadian Armed Forces. What to buy?

[Admiral Beez]

Really we should just buy the full allotment of F-35s, and focus on diversification with new and future CAF projects, such as the yet unassigned CH146 Griffon replacement. The last F-35 units won't arrive until well after Trump is gone in Jan 2029, so there's no need to piss off his replacement.

Lockheed-Martin is already embedded in our fighter and destroyer/frigate replacement programs, and Boeing has the Maritime Patrol Aircraft replacement contract. So, let's look at major projects with the CAF that remain unassigned, and what non-US options there are.

Projects - Defence Capabilities Blueprint

Projects for the Defence Capabilities Blueprint.

apps.forces.gc.ca

Planned Canadian Forces projects - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[hw621]

Really we should just buy the full allotment of F-35s, and focus on diversification with new and future CAF projects, such as the yet unassigned CH146 Griffon replacement. The last F-35 units won't arrive until well after Trump is gone in Jan 2029, so there's no need to piss off his replacement.

Lockheed-Martin is already embedded in our fighter and destroyer/frigate replacement programs, and Boeing has the Maritime Patrol Aircraft replacement contract. So, let's look at major projects with the CAF that remain unassigned, and what non-US options there are.

Projects - Defence Capabilities Blueprint

Projects for the Defence Capabilities Blueprint.

apps.forces.gc.ca

Planned Canadian Forces projects - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The whole F35 fiasco may just be bargaining tactics...

 

[Admiral Beez]

The whole F35 fiasco may just be bargaining tactics...

I'm thinking that too. Our PM's a smart cookie, and we may very well see Carney declare that after meeting with Trump we have secured X in exchange for taking all the F-35s.

OTOH, there is no diplomatic advantage in taking the SAAB Gripen. Most of Europe doesn't want it either, with the British flying F-35s (for the FAA) and Eurofighters, with the Germans about to do the same (F-35As in their case). Other NATO countries now (or soon to be) operating the F-35 include Norway, Finland, Turkey, Denmark, and Belgium. In addition to NATO, Canadian-aligned Australia and Japan are both operating the F-35. If the F-35 meets the needs of all these first world and Canada-aligned countries, it's good enough for us too.

 

[Lennox970]

I recently checked up on our brethren Down Under on how RAAF F-35 procurement was progressing. Seems they had their final delivery in 2024 and also retaining their Super Hornet fleet, acquired as a Hornet/F-35 stopgap. Of course, some of their old Hornets are now flying with the RCAF.

Quite an impressive inventory (cannot vouch for inventory current numbers, below). I hadn't picked up the latest on their Ghost Bat Loyal Wingman RPAS - successful AMRAAM launch in December. First combat air system developed in Australia in half a century appartently. Programme worthwhile for us to join?

MQ-28 Ghost Bat

Autonomous collaborative combat aircraft

www.boeing.com

Type​	Role​	Status​
F-35 Lightening II	Combat	72​
F/A-18 Super Hornet	Combat	24​
EA-18G Growler	Electronic Attack	12​
MC-55A	SIGINT	1 (+3 on order)​
MQ-28 Ghost Bat	UAV/Combat	TBC (+10 on order)​
C-17A Globemaster III	Strategic transport	8​
C-130J-30 Hercules	Strategic/tactical transport	12 (+24 on order)​
C-27J Spartan	Tactical transport	10​
KC-30A MRTT	Tanker/transport	7​
B737	Transport	2​
Dassault Falcon 7X	Transport	3​
KA350 King Air	Transport/ISR	12​
P-8A Poseidon	Maritime/ISR	13​
E-7A Wedgetail	AEW/ABM	6​
MQ-4C Triton	UAV/Maritime ISR	1 (+3 on order)​

 

[kEiThZ]

I'm certainly no expert but it might take time, too much time, to make Korean aircraft NORAD, NATO, etc. compliant and compatible. We've left it so long we can't afford more delays.

Better fit than the Gripen to be honest....

 

[Admiral Beez]

We're probably leaning mixed fleet. And it's going to absolutely suck for the RCAF.

I hope not. And there is hope for good sense.

Canada discreetly puts money down on 14 additional F-35s

This makes total sense to me. There's no way for Canada to operate two small fleets of separate fighter aircraft.

 

[kEiThZ]

I hope not. And there is hope for good sense.

Canada discreetly puts money down on 14 additional F-35s

This makes total sense to me. There's no way for Canada to operate two small fleets of separate fighter aircraft.

The schedule called for 18 deliveries each year 2029 - 2032. Ordering 14 actually makes room for a second fleet. They might be planning on 50-60 as the final F-35 fleet retiring the Hornet and then 60-70 Gripens delivered 2032 onwards.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The schedule called for 18 deliveries each year 2029 - 2032. Ordering 14 actually makes room for a second fleet. They might be planning on 50-60 as the final F-35 fleet retiring the Hornet and then 60-70 Gripens delivered 2032 onwards.

Interesting, which could be justified by the larger overall number of fighters vs. the original 80-odd F-35s originally planned. On the assumption that we won't always conduct it in the USA, RCAF fighter training takes place at CFB Cold Lake. Would we run two parallel pilot training schools? The F-35 and Gripen share nothing in common beyond the basics.

 

[kEiThZ]

Seems they had their final delivery in 2024 and also retaining their Super Hornet fleet, acquired as a Hornet/F-35 stopgap.

Not a stopgap. The SH fulfills their light bomber/strike requirement. They need to be able sling LRASMs against targets in the Straits of Malacca to hold shipping at risk. The Super Hornets are also plumbed but not fitted with Electronic Attack requirement. Similar to USN Growlers.

 

[kEiThZ]

Interesting, which could be justified by the larger overall number of fighters vs. the original 80-odd F-35s originally planned. On the assumption that we won't always conduct it in the USA, RCAF fighter training takes place at CFB Cold Lake. Would we run two parallel pilot training schools? The F-35 and Gripen share nothing in common beyond the basics.

Each fleet has an OTU: Operational Training Unit. That's where pilots learn their specific platform. There's one for Hercs, C-17s, Griffons, Chinooks, Cormorants, etc. If we buy two fighters, we'll need two OTUs. These are separate from the actual flying schools which train pilots till they get their wings. That's Moose Jaw and the Fighter Lead in phase in Cold Lake. Pilots switching fleets also go to the OTU. The OTUs also train the technicians on how to service that platform. They also have experienced operators who do tactics development.

 

[Lennox970]

Not a stopgap. The SH fulfills their light bomber/strike requirement. They need to be able sling LRASMs against targets in the Straits of Malacca to hold shipping at risk. The Super Hornets are also plumbed but not fitted with Electronic Attack requirement. Similar to USN Growlers.

Interesting. A seriously impressive all-around air force.

 

[Lennox970]

Not a stopgap. The SH fulfills their light bomber/strike requirement. They need to be able sling LRASMs against targets in the Straits of Malacca to hold shipping at risk. The Super Hornets are also plumbed but not fitted with Electronic Attack requirement. Similar to USN Growlers.

Acquired to bridge any air capability gap between F-111s retired, and F-35s into service. Not temporary, but filling a multi-role capability; had first firing of the LRASM missiles last year. Also RAAF intent, IIRC, to see 35As and Poseidon with LRASM. SH commonality ~90% with Growlers, but some airframe, etc differences.

A very capable aircraft which I think we were discussing a few years back as a follow on to CF-18.

 

[kEiThZ]

Acquired to bridge any air capability gap between F-111s retired, and F-35s into service.

It's not really a bridge. They always intended to operate the SH as the 111 replacement. Even if imperfect in that role. And the Rhino complements the Panther for the RAAF just like it does for the USN.

SH commonality ~90% with Growlers, but some airframe, etc differences.

Will be interesting to see if they upgrade to Block III.

A very capable aircraft which I think we were discussing a few years back as a follow on to CF-18.

That was a corrupt deal that thankfully fell apart. If we were going to sole source any Boeing 4.5 Gen, it should have been the F-15EX.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Ottawa plans to double defence exports, create 125,000 jobs in next decade

Federal government aims to boost Canada’s economy through increased defence spending

www.theglobeandmail.com

Increasing Canadian defence exports is well and good, provided we don’t count in our success metrics those of wholly-US owned subsidiaries operating in Canada, such as GDLS Canada and Lockheed-Martin Canada.

 

[guavadelic]

Hopefully there aren't some unintended consequences with the new national defense strategy to buy Canadian. The Pentagon mostly considers Canadian suppliers as domestic and allows them to compete with U.S. firms. They could respond with similar measures.