46th Canadian Federal Election

[Mihairokov]

The 51 is from 'Main Street' whose numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion. They are quite the outlier with that poll.

Are you maybe thinking of EKOS or Abacus? Mainstreet is usually in-line with others and, if anything, overpoll CPC numbers. CanadianPolling has a good timeline of polls from 2021-2025 found here: https://canadianpolling.ca/Canada-2021

EKOS is the firm that overrates LPC, but they were able to pick up the early swing to Carney when he became leader. EKOS had CPC at 30% at the end of January which only Research Co. has come close to with margin of error.

Mainstreet's 51 is similar to Leger's 47 from the week before, and Leger is broadly viewed as the best pollster in this country.

 

[Northern Light]

Are you maybe thinking of EKOS or Abacus? Mainstreet is usually in-line with others and, if anything, overpoll CPC numbers. CanadianPolling has a good timeline of polls from 2021-2025 found here: https://canadianpolling.ca/Canada-2021

EKOS is the firm that overrates LPC, but they were able to pick up the early swing to Carney when he became leader. EKOS had CPC at 30% at the end of January which only Research Co. has come close to with margin of error.

Mainstreet's 51 is similar to Leger's 47 from the week before, and Leger is broadly viewed as the best pollster in this country.

All the pollsters have their biases, conscious or otherwise...........

But as it pertains to Main Street......well................Quitto Maggi is its founder/president and .....yeah.

 

[Mihairokov]

All the pollsters have their biases, conscious or otherwise...........

So why pick out Mainstreet when they have LPC at 51? It's not that far afield from what others in the field are landing at.

 

[Northern Light]

So why pick out Mainstreet when they have LPC at 51? It's not that far afield from what others in the field are landing at.

They are six points above the next nearest pollster in the most recent polls, and 9 points above the average of the next 3; that's a pretty big 'outlier' margin.

It varies by 8 from the 338 consolidating track number. Their variance is greater than any other poster from the remaining group of 3, from any of those and the consolidated average.

I think my observation was fair; if you differ, you're welcome to your opinion. But I'll stand by what I said , I don't think it was extreme or unfair, I called an outlier and outlier that's it.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

The 51 is from 'Main Street' whose numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion. They are quite the outlier with that poll.

338 Canada's combined/averaged projection reads as more credible to me.

That suggests a most likely outcome of a Lib Majority with 175 seats, which is not a lot of pickups. It would be a majority by 3 seats only, 2 with a Liberal speaker.

A slim majority is still a majority.

 

[adma]

Of course, the other outlier thing nobody's mentioned re Mainstreet (and likewise reflecting a longer pattern re that polling agency): the NDP way back at 4% and a point behind the Bloc, while the other polls have them floating back into the 9-13% range.

 

[Mihairokov]

They are six points above the next nearest pollster in the most recent polls, and 9 points above the average of the next 3; that's a pretty big 'outlier' margin.

The 51 is only four above Leger's result which is nearly MOE. Anyway.