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The Future of subway and rapid transit in the GTA

north-of-anything said:
At least the next steps are headed in that direction - Line 1 to Richmond Hill, Line 2 to Sheppard, hopefully Line 4 to Sheppard West and the Queen's Quay East streetcar. Not to mention transforming GO rail into something more closely resembling rapid transit.

We don't need 2 to 3 times as many subway corridors if the existing infrastructure can be maximized.
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Oh I have bad news for you, unfortunately we're well on our way to doubling the existing subway system.

Line 1 - 38.4 km
Line 2 - 26.2 km
Line 4 - 5.5 km
TOTAL - 70.1 km

OL = 15.6 km
SSE = 7.8 km
YSE = 8 km

Line 5 (tunnelled/grade separated portion) - 10 km
Line 5 West - 9.2 km
Line 5 Renforth to YYZ ≈ 4 km

Line 4 East to Scarborough Centre ≈ 7.5 km
Line 4 West to Sheppard West ≈ 4.5 km
Ontario Line North to Steeles ≈ 10.6 km

Add that up and the system just more than doubled and yes we need all of it.

That brings us above 140 km, which is the bare minimum in my opinion even if you were to add GO RER (Trillium Network), a fully optimized streetcar system and many BRT routes through out the city.

If we had what is listed above then you're right that would probably be enough for our existing population.

140 km for the TTC subway system is mostly already being constructed and planned. Admittedly going beyond that enters fantasy land, but once you start thinking about other potential future projects you get over 210 km easily, which would be tripling what currently exists.

UPX as a metro line
OL Line West to YYZ via the Queensway
Line 2 North to Steeles or Markham Centre
Line 2 West to Sherway
Line 2 West to Square One
Line 4 West to Jane
Line 4 West to YYZ
Jane Metro Line
Dufferin Metro Line

TLDR a 140+ km TTC subway system is already happening and getting to 210 km isn't inconceivable.
 
Midtown Urbanist said:
I was thinking about how many additional trip options will be opened up tomorrow with the Crosstown. It really is exciting times even if performance of the LRT ends up with some disappointing day-one reactions.

It is quite literally a game-changer.
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I don't see it if it ends up being slower than the bus
 
I just checked a trip I would make when I had a car, out at Bermondsey starting from Wilson and Bathurst.

Car = 20-40m.
Bus = 1h 3m.
Line 1 + 5 = 1h 14m.

This sounds dreadful for 15 years and 12 billion dollars.
 
Recently I found an old slide deck from the aughts positing a 35-minute trip from Jane to Kennedy. Evidently they thought they were building something completely other than what finally happened.
 
picard102 said:
I just checked a trip I would make when I had a car, out at Bermondsey starting from Wilson and Bathurst.

Car = 20-40m.
Bus = 1h 3m.
Line 1 + 5 = 1h 14m.

This sounds dreadful for 15 years and 12 billion dollars.
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Checking Google maps for 8:15 AM on Monday (tomorrow) I get 46 minutes (including 6 minutes walking) on LIne 1+5 (and 96 bus to Yorkdale station) (of which 19 minute is on Line 5). Presumably this will be 2 or 3 minutes faster once Line 5 fully opens.

But the best I can see last Monday at 8:15 am is 52 minutes on the 996 express bus plus the notoriously unreliable infrequent 91 Woodbine bus - so probaby not the best choice of route.

1770602367353.png


I'm not sure where 74 minutes comes from. Perhaps there's an excessive walking time?

Google maps does have it quirks though - compare the walking time below for the 96 vs 996 buses at Yorkdale station!
1770602810021.png
1770602890970.png
 
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picard102 said:
I gave approximate locations, for a trip at noon. Using your 8am this is the result I get.

View attachment 714066View attachment 714067View attachment 714068
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With 32 minutes of walking? From Bathurst/Wilson to Bermondsey/Sloan/Eglinton?

My trips above had 1 minute of walking at Eglinton station.

Ah, if I force it a bit with options, I can get it to walk 21 minutes to Wilson station - for a 62 minute total travel time. But I'm not sure how to get it up to 32 minutes of walking time.

But if you are going to take the 996 past York Mills station, why not just get off at York Mills for the faster subway trip? The trips taking the bus to York Mills range from 44 to 49 minutes (depending which bus).

How do you find the 91 bus? I've taken it northbound to York Mills at AM peak before if I'd see one at Woodbine station; but running only every 15 minutes, I never risked it going south (at PM peak, when it runs every 18 minutes). I used to work near York Mills and Don Mills road, and live near Woodbine station.

1770617647502.png
 
Ah, @picard102 - I think I figured it out.

I think you may have deselected "Bus" and set the destination to the (Hydro One) Bermondsey Transmission Station.

Hmm, I wonder if that, and the nearby Bermondsey waste transfer station was why they changed the name to Sloane station.

1770619070451.png

1770619198705.png
 
I’ve been thinking about the massive cost problems and how that would impact the next generation of transit expansion. Let’s assume we get to our full buildout of what’s currently planned at the provincial level: OL, Sheppard both ways, Eglinton West, Yonge, and SSE.

Ignoring extensions of existing lines the next major independent lines that could be constructed would be any of:
-Midtown corridor
-Jane
-Dufferin
-Scarborough
-(I’m sure there are more)

All of these have a decent chance to be standalone lines (not requiring the capacity of Toronto subway or GO, could probably be light metro).

So why aren’t CDPQ or OTPP all over these? With the Canada Line and REM as proven models why hasn’t either side investigated these as their next major infrastructure investment? They seem to be key pieces in the transit system and a good revenue stream. Is there a reason BC and Quebec could attract projects but not Ontario?

It seems like a great opportunity to me and I have zero guesses why it’s not being explored. Totally open to comments on why it wouldn’t work.
 
Vortex112 said:
I’ve been thinking about the massive cost problems and how that would impact the next generation of transit expansion. Let’s assume we get to our full buildout of what’s currently planned at the provincial level: OL, Sheppard both ways, Eglinton West, Yonge, and SSE.

Ignoring extensions of existing lines the next major independent lines that could be constructed would be any of:
-Midtown corridor
-Jane
-Dufferin
-Scarborough
-(I’m sure there are more)

All of these have a decent chance to be standalone lines (not requiring the capacity of Toronto subway or GO, could probably be light metro).

So why aren’t CDPQ or OTPP all over these? With the Canada Line and REM as proven models why hasn’t either side investigated these as their next major infrastructure investment? They seem to be key pieces in the transit system and a good revenue stream. Is there a reason BC and Quebec could attract projects but not Ontario?

It seems like a great opportunity to me and I have zero guesses why it’s not being explored. Totally open to comments on why it wouldn’t work.
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Lets start with OTTP now owning any subway or similar systems around the world so far as I'm aware. So this is not their field.

As far as CDPQ they so have some investments outside Quebec in the transit field, though none would directly compare with REM, so far as I'm aware.

CDPQ though, like most investors responds to RFPs or similar, there's no reason I can think of that they would initiate or 'push' such a plan. Normal rules of government would dictate if government chose to pursue such a plan after CDPQ or anyone else approached them, they would go to open tender. So there would be no reward for being first mover.

Legally, they can't act w/o government support, the TTC has a monopoly on local transit in Toronto by law; and the City owns its roads, and their air rights, while Mx or the Class 1s control rail corridors.

There's really nothing for them to initiate or buy or start, assuming such an exercise were profitable.

But in point of fact, even REM isn't profitable in the normal sense of the concept, with government backing (money) on the order of several billion dollars, and in that case, access at no cost to a pre-existing rail corridor and tunnel, in the province with the cheapest electricity in North America, it would be swimming in red ink.

So any building of new transit here will rely on the blessing and financial support of the government of Ontario.

Now, CDPQ may well be part of a consortium to deliver same, but there are 2-3 large scale projects in the near-term pipeline (announced this year or next, construction start in 2027 to 2030) that will hoover up all the money in the room.

There are zero dollars for new services on Dufferin or Jane.
 
urbanclient said:
A worthwhile watch, Copenhagen turns an operating profit despite running 24/7 service (low labour costs due to driverless trains):

Click to expand...

There is good stuff in there, from the driverless trains to lower construction costs, for the underground lines by going shallow and standardizing much of the station design.

That said, the profit bit is a stretch......... its achieved first by having used real estate development to subsidize construction costs to the tune of billions of dollars, and doing so with land that was largely publicly owned (former military base) or created (new island/peninsula), debt was taken on at government-backed interest rates (much lower than commercial ones), and so the operating system doesn't have to cover the capital cost/debt-service in the same way one might traditionally calculate.

To be clear, I'm not criticizing the model which has much to recommend it (though if you look at the ugly shopping mall that was built on the former base, its not all a panacea). I'm simply saying the words 'operating profit' may be accurate, yet still misleading to the North American ear.

High fares are also worth talking about. The Copenhagen Metro covers 4 zones in the Denmark transit/rail regime, if you require a 4-zone ticket (valid for 1hr 45m) you'll fork out just over $8 CAD, the cheapest possible trip (2 zones) is equivalent to $5.15 per ticket (per direction) and is valid for only 1hr 15m.

Compare to TTC at $3.30 for 2 hours of valid fare.

A reading of their financials from 2024 may be worth a look for transit/policy nerds:


That aggressive pricing is possible, even a city that largely eschews tolls, because, well, there are no highways servicing the core.

When your ring road looks like this:

1776856043118.png


To be clear, there are highways:

1776856098109.png


But these begin a few km outside the old city/core area.

Oh, and did I mention that parking all day in the core is ~$60?

Which again is not to discount the good elements in the Copenhagen system, merely to point things are rarely as simple as they are portrayed, many moving parts.
 
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