Lennox970
Active Member
I don't make predictions, I just look at the facts. So I don't know if this is just a pressure tactic or a preparation for an air assault campaign. I don't know what their plan is for securing strategic assets (or if they even have a plan). But what we know for sure is that they are certainly building up military presence in the region to at least have an option for a crushing air strike campaign.
Fresh round of air asset redeployment towards Iran.
F-35s:
more Growlers:
https://www.itamilradar.com/2026/01...gnaling-renewed-middle-east-deployment-cycle/
Yes, exactly that. For a threat to be effective, it has to be credible, so putting everything in place for a full-on campaign. What the objectives would ultimately be remains to be seen. Remaining nuclear programme infrastructure, military/IRGC capabilities, leadership? Regime change - possibility, but I wouldn't put money on it. The lessons of Iraq (regime change, boots on the ground) or Libya (regime change, no boots on the ground) are probably a fair warning. And I don't think there is any US stomach - from the majority of both the Republican base and Democrats, for another nation-building project in a distant land. And knocking out the Ayatollah regime and leaving a regional vacuum will be equally painful and the US would not be forgiven.
I know the Shah-designate had a high Western profile during the recent unrest, but I am unsighted on what credible and capable post-Ayatollah governance exists within Iran. Organized opposition certainly hollowed out, but there is no doubt now about increasing internal discontent with the status quo. The regime's own calculation may be a significant factor if they assess US action as being existential for the Islamic leadership. They may well use the 80s playbook of inflicting maximum regional pain - closing the Gulf, to draw in and leverage other actors. I am sure the US is now trying to leverage those same actors behind the scenes. N.B. China (China’s Crude Oil Imports by Country).
An Iran that forswears a nuclear programme, on top of its recent loss of regional allies, could be transformational for the ME. The period after the Iran-Iraq/Kuwait wars was comparatively stable, with a resistant (but bottled up) Iraq and a chastened Iran.
Sit back with the popcorn and watch.




