From your analysis, what's the rough ETA of this project's completion?
@ProjectEnd would know better than I..... but I'm hearing something in the range of 45-60 units sold out of 246.
So just under 20% to maybe 24%
I don't know Curated's books, but assuming this is being financed typically, those sales are nowhere near enough to green light construction.
Typically, you need at least 60% sold and in this market probably 70% to get construction financing.
Given that the non-luxury market for condos is all but dead; and that this is not being marketed as luxury in anyway, I do not see a path forward for this development in the current market.
Maybe a year from now, maybe two.......but maybe not.
If the market conditions supported it, its a relatively small, straight-forward build, and could be up and occupied 18 months after demolition. Even if you allow 24 months.....if Curated themselves are suggesting 2029 occupancy, That would suggest to me they don't foresee beginning construction this year.
Given that the building would require major design changes to support a luxury model (notably parking, but also additional amenities and improved architecture) , and this is not an ideal location for that, I don't see this going anywhere.
I think the most likely scenario would be a pivot to rental; but that's not a given, as that would require government incentives and financing and of course dozens of deposits returned.