@6ixGod 's long post got as many positive reactions as
@T3G 's reply which shows how polarized this forum is on
tram vs. subway.
Subway expansion over tram expansion for a city of its weight class is not a regressive, Fordian neoconservative doctrine or conspiracy to ruin transit. 8.3 million people, 100 skyscrapers downtown and growing, Toronto is top 20 in the world for total skyscrapers, easily top 20 for high-rise density in its downtown, and yet Toronto is far from a top 20 city in terms of rapid transit.
IMO for people with more extensive knowledge of how Toronto compares with other global cities and/or who have travelled extensively among said cities, the preponderance of evidence points towards Toronto having a
very undersized subway all things considered: population density, total population, land area, regional GDP, regional GDP per capita etc... There is a reason why the TTC subway ranks among the best for ridership per km. It's because the system is very small for the population which it's supposed to serve.
Trams work great in many medium density, medium sized cities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLzkcfGfnDg
Toronto today is
not a medium density, medium sized city. It is no longer a small skyscraper downtown surrounded by disparate, unconnected suburbs and municipalities. Furthermore, Toronto's street layout and geography adjacent to downtown* are not conducive for more tram expansion.
*where the nominal density may justify trams
The GTHA no matter how you classify it, is either a megalopolis or megacity, currently 8.3+ million up from 6.8 million in 2014, and easily approaching 10 million by 2040, the latter of which Metrolinx concurs [1]. If you were to look at the largest monocentric cities in Western Europe, Toronto would rank 3rd only behind London and Paris. Unfortunately, for the foreseeable future, Toronto is going to have a metro system 4 to 7 times smaller than Paris and London.
In an unlimited budget utopia, would Toronto have dozens of fast trams in low density suburbs instead of buses? Maybe. But considering the realities at hand, a limited budget, growing population, urban morphology, human geography....prioritizing futureproof subway expansion in denser areas just makes more sense.
Also, I don't think anyone is 100% guaranteeing that Line 5 will run into capacity issues in the short term, but it doesn't take some leap of logic to think that Line 5 will capture lots of latent demand for a city so starved of rapid transit.
The demand projections for Line 5 were done off numbers from two decades ago when population growth rates were projected to be much lower [2]. To make matters worse, the advertised max 15,000 pphpd with 3 cars is unrealistic since it implies a >6 people m^2 crush load with 250 pax per 30 metre car and 0 flip up and multi-use seats used. A more realistic figure is 12,000 pphpd with 200 pax each for 3 cars, at 20 trains per hour.
View attachment 705154
For Line 5 Eglinton, we must distinguish between low absolute cost and high long-term value. Selecting a cheaper technology that provides disproportionately lower utility is a false economy, as it represents a poor value proposition if the marginal benefit fails to scale with the city's growth. In contrast, a subway (even a light metro) yields a significantly higher benefit to cost ratio because its superior potential throughput will far outweigh the incremental increase in construction costs. In hindsight, it's unclear Line 5 would've even cost more as a subway of any kind since the per km costs of Line 5 as mixed-grade tram are around 2 times that of the Vaughan Line 1 extension.
1.
"The expansion of transit in the GTHA is the largest in North America today, but our job is far from over. By 2041, over 10 million people will live in our region— comparable to Paris or London."
Metrolinx 2041 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN For the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area Draft Final
2. In 2012 an updated case from Steer Davies Gleave was released. They predicted Eglinton would only need 9,000 pphpd by 2031 based on outdated population projections. (pg. 20/49)
https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/...etrolinx/Benefits_Case-Eglinton_Crosstown.pdf
In 2.4 (pg. 11/49) it says "The assumed employment and population forecasts used for the assessment are identified in ‘Places to Grow’ the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe area and is consistent with those used in the Regional Transportation Plan, The Big Move."
Places to Grow is from 2006. The Big Move is from 2008.
View attachment 705173
Big Move 2008 pdf:
https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/upload/v1663240133/Documents/Metrolinx/TheBigMove_020109.pdf
The Big Move says, "The GTHA, located in southern Ontario, is Canada’s largest urban region. It is also one of Canada’s fastest growing urban regions. With a current population of over six million people, it is forecast to be home to 8.6 million people by the year 2031."
Without fully accounting for undercounted visas and overstays, the GTHA population is already estimated to be 8.3 million as of July 1, 2024 (StatsCan). The true population of the GTHA could very well be 8.6 million already when factoring in NPR undercount as predicted by Benjamin Tal from CIBC (
https://economics.cibccm.com/cds?id=858756bd-a8fc-4920-8ea4-e1dcd1c104d4&flag=E).
Compare that with the original TTC/Toronto Crosstown Environmental Project Report (EA) from 2010:
https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/upload/v1689691727/Images/Metrolinx/EA_complete.pdf
"2.1.2 Identification of Alternative Transit Technologies
The City of Toronto’s Official Plan forecasts a 270,000(10%) increase in the population of the City by 2031"
The City of Toronto's official plan numbers they are citing for this forecast dates back to 2002 at least, before the
official 2001 census numbers were released, as part of
Flashforward: Projecting Population And Employment To 2031 In A Mature Urban Area - Looking Ahead Part 1.
View attachment 705174
The city of Toronto has seen much more than a 270,000 increase in just the last 5 years, let alone since 2006.
StatsCan Population estimates:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710015201
IMO the problem is the P3 projects that proceed from ~50% design and rip off the taxpayers. Traditional procurement would probably get more built for the same budget. P3s blow through the budget, which leads to less projects being built, which leads to discontinuous construction etc... Not to mention Metrolinx is still grasping at straws about P3s apparently offering value for money when it clearly
does not in Ontario. IMO the lack of retained institutional knowledge at the government level is less of a problem because even in traditional procurement, the design stage is outsourced to an engineering firm.