PM Mark Carney's Canada

[Northern Light]

I don't think it's that easy. The working class isn't progressive anymore.

If you said, that left-leaning/progressive pols/parties have advanced ideas about which the broadest portion of the working class are indifferent or opposed, I'd agree.

Equally, one could say, left-leaning parties/pols have often not appeared to care sufficiently about 'bread and butter' issues, partly because of the above displacing space in their agendas; I would also agree.

I'm not so sure that the 'working class' have moved all the much ideologically, as much as they have wandered around the political spectrum looking a party that is talking to them, and about them, not down to them, or ignoring them.

If the NDP/progressive politician focuses on how to make life better, and create opportunity for the broad working class, I think there's a receptive market available.

Minimum wage increases still poll extremely well, so do statutory paid personal/sick days, better transit/shorter commutes poll well even in more rural areas, Simcoe County is not a bastion of left-wing activism, to say the least,
yet they have nascent regional transit are seriously discussing going all-in on that, and funding it with higher taxes, and its polling well.

Progressives need to reach out not with "I feel your pain"; but instead, "this is how I'm going to get you a raise, shorten your commute, make both rent and house prices decline, and make you feel safer on transit or in your local park (even if crime is actually down)"

 

[kEiThZ]

Young men. Women are going further left.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/investigates/canada-votes-election-conservative-divide-1.7507694

Numbers:

A poll conducted by Abacus Data in late March suggested 41 per cent of men under 30 backed the Conservatives, compared to 23 per cent of women in the same age bracket.

That 18-point gap stands in marked contrast to the results of a poll Abacus conducted on the eve of the 2021 election, which suggested 27 per cent of young men and 29 per cent of young women would vote Tory.

Young men are going further right than young women are going left. And that's not good for progressives.

 

[Northern Light]

Young men are going further right than young women are going left. And that's not good for progressives.

Agreed, though as another poster noted, women are leaning more left in some respects and women tend to vote in greater numbers than do men.

Voter turnout chart from Elections Canada:

Source: https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/eval/pes2019/vtsa2&document=p1&lang=e

****

I do agree though than the leaning of young male voters is or should be a point of concern.

I think beyond the policy, and style points I discussed above; you also have the effect of a social media echo chamber at work.......

 

[kEiThZ]

If you said, that left-leaning/progressive pols/parties have advanced ideas about which the broadest portion of the working class are indifferent or opposed, I'd agree.

Equally, one could say, left-leaning parties/pols have often not appeared to care sufficiently about 'bread and butter' issues, partly because of the above displacing space in their agendas; I would also agree.

I'm not so sure that the 'working class' have moved all the much ideologically, as much as they have wandered around the political spectrum looking a party that is talking to them, and about them, not down to them, or ignoring them.

If the NDP/progressive politician focuses on how to make life better, and create opportunity for the broad working class, I think there's a receptive market available.

Minimum wage increases still poll extremely well, so do statutory paid personal/sick days, better transit/shorter commutes poll well even in more rural areas, Simcoe County is not a bastion of left-wing activism, to say the least,
yet they have nascent regional transit are seriously discussing going all-in on that, and funding it with higher taxes, and its polling well.

Progressives need to reach out not with "I feel your pain"; but instead, "this is how I'm going to get you a raise, shorten your commute, make both rent and house prices decline, and make you feel safer on transit or in your local park (even if crime is actually down)"

Throughout history populations tend to become more right wing and nativist during hard times. I don't think this era is particularly different in that regard. The fundamental problem that left wing parties face is that their competing priorities don’t allow them to prioritize working class interests above all else. It’s easy to discuss theoreticals about lifting all boats. But in reality, politics is about choices. As an example, we have to choose between supporting the oil sector which provides high paying employment for young working class males (predominantly) or climate policy that is a global good but doesn’t do anything for these young guys. We have to choose where to invest in housing policy. Progressives almost exclusively talk about public housing when talking about investing in housing. Yet, poll after poll shows that young people still care about homeownership. On and on.

Progressives can win when their policies align with working class interests. I agree with you on that. I just don’t agree that those interests actually align when their actual policy deliberations happen. Progressives struggle to understand this though. And then end up assuming that the working class are just morons voting against self-interest. I won’t even get into social issues where the working class and progressives are usually even farther apart than they are on economics.

None of this is to even say that the working class is always right on everything. And I personally don't always agree with some of those values. But it's important for any party who wants those votes to actually understand that perspective.

 

[kEiThZ]

Progressives need to reach out not with "I feel your pain"; but instead, "this is how I'm going to get you a raise, shorten your commute, make both rent and house prices decline, and make you feel safer on transit or in your local park (even if crime is actually down)"

I honestly don't believe the federal NDP is even close to capable of doing this today.

 

[kEiThZ]

Let's be clear. This is a real issue. And it will absolutely be the undercurrent for probably the rest of our lives.

For the first time in history, the average male Canadian senior now makes more than the average young Canadian man.
The average Canadian man between 25-34 earned an average of $61,200 in 2023, while the average Canadian man 65 and over made $61,600.

This is despite many of the older generation being retired, according to new research conducted by Mike Moffatt, Missing Middle Initiative founding director and Hub contributor.

“Young men have not received a raise in about 25 years. They earn after inflation about what they did back in say 1988, or 1998, or 1999,” Moffatt said on a Hub Hit podcast.

Compared to 1976, men between 25-34 experienced an average decrease of $8,300 in income (after inflation), while the young man’s median income plummeted even further, dropping by $14,300.

In contrast, the average older Canadian man is financially thriving as his yearly earnings have expanded by an average of $26,000 in additional income (inflation-adjusted), due in no small part to growing pensions, generous OAS (Old Age Security), and larger investment incomes. The 65-plus Canadian man’s average income has also been boosted because many older men now work into their late sixties or even into their seventies, while saving more. The median income for a Canadian man over 64 rose by $23,100.

Canadian young men are making $8,300 less while older men make $26,000 more in last 50 years: Report

thehub.ca

When in history, has having a society full of unemployed or underemployed young men, ever worked out?

And yet, there's parties that are proposing to boost OAS.

 

[Northern Light]

I honestly don't believe the federal NDP is even close to capable of doing this today.

I'm not sure they are either; I would only make the case that there is room in Canadian politics for a party that will. Whether that will be the NDP is a different matter.

 

[Mihairokov]

Young men are going further right than young women are going left. And that's not good for progressives.

If the US is any indication, which it usually is for our politics, young men are moving away from the far-right in vast numbers. Mid-term polling has the GOP getting trounced partly because young men are moving away from that sphere of politics.

 

[kEiThZ]

If the US is any indication, which it usually is for our politics, young men are moving away from the far-right in vast numbers. Mid-term polling has the GOP getting trounced partly because young men are moving away from that sphere of politics.

They moved away AFTER having experienced Trump Admin governance. I don't think that says anything about whether young men in Canada will/won't vote CPC. Especially since we have had the LPC in power for over a decade.

 

[Mihairokov]

They moved away AFTER having experienced Trump Admin governance. I don't think that says anything about whether young men in Canada will/won't vote CPC. Especially since we have had the LPC in power for over a decade.

A good majority of young Canadian men live in provinces run by corrupt and/or inept conservative governments as is. They don't need a federal one to show them the way because they already know how it plays out, either provincially or south of the border.

 

[PinkLucy]

A good majority of young Canadian men live in provinces run by corrupt and/or inept conservative governments as is. They don't need a federal one to show them the way because they already know how it plays out, either provincially or south of the border.

That assumes they pay attention to what ia going on around them.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

They moved away AFTER having experienced Trump Admin governance. I don't think that says anything about whether young men in Canada will/won't vote CPC. Especially since we have had the LPC in power for over a decade.

Whether they move away or not doesn't matter - what matters is whether the issues facing that cohort gets resolved in a satisfactory manner - the inability to do so meant either CPC will increase the rightward tilt or some upstart far right party will siphon away the faithful.

AoD

 

[Mihairokov]

That assumes they pay attention to what ia going on around them.

Any more or less than the average NPC median voter?

 

[gabe]

Yes because Jack was at the helm and everyone knew what the party stood for.

I was a member of the NDP for many years and left when Tom Mulcair took over due to the party going in another direction. I saw many friends lose the election in 2015 because of it.

When I joined the NDP it was the party of Tommy Douglas and Ed Broadbent that appealed to the working class trying to get ahead. When they became the Official Opposition they moved towards the centre and cut socialism from the party constitution.

I knew Jack personally and he genuinely cared about average Canadians. Tom Mulcair came in and only cared about keeping power which later cost them.

As I said, when they became the official opposition their head swelled and they thought they were the new LPC. The ONDP did the same thing in Ontario and look how it is playing out for them.

It's tough to be an NDPer these days. My dad met both Tommy Douglas and Ed Broadbent at steel worker union conventions back in the day. Back then the NDP were a champion for workers, and stood along side unions and fought for higher wages and benefits. When my dentist tells me i have perfect teeth for my age. I say all thanks to Union benefits growing up, i got the best dental care. That NDP would never support the temp foreign workers program we have today, bringing down wages and benefits for working class Canadians.

Conservatives like Ford, Poilievre are good at playing blue collar cosplay, they go to the construction sties and factories and pretend to care about the working class. Poilievre rails against government and immigrants as the basis for the lowering quality of life instead of the rich. He acts like a champion of working class but why doesn’t he blame the corporations for not paying workers a good wage?

 

[adma]

Let's also remember, re young people moving rightward, what I've been saying over and over--they probably disproportionately come from the kinds of households that are disposed rightward in the first place. Whereas the "educated left" is, in practice, not all that "reproductive".