Developer: Oxford Properties Group, Ports Toronto
Architect: Rogers Stirk Harbour + Partners
  
Address: 30 Bay St, Toronto
Category: Commercial (Office, Retail)
Status: Pre-ConstructionCompletion: TBD
Height: 848 ft / 258.46 mStoreys: 59 storeys
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Toronto The HUB | 258.46m | 59s | Oxford Properties | Rogers Stirk Harbour

Not sure how you define downtown Toronto. Perhaps the fully vacant brand new class A tower are not in that jurisdiction. I just don't see that as big of a deal to the overall performance. Class AA space is the most sought after space with always the lowest vacancies of all the classes. I'm still having a hard time that 6% class AA vacancy is not to be considered high.

There's so much instability in Toronto right now with respects to 2024 dismal real estate market. I'm going to speculate that no one is bullish about three years from now.

Bay Street has been more lenient on its workforce cashing out of Toronto and continuing employment than the province/public sector has. There's must some regret in that.

I love UT. I've been a member for 25 years. There's a ton of insider information but, as with everything nowadays, buyer beware. In my experience, those that know everything about something shocking are unlikely to even hint that they know something juicy. This thread is speculating on the linkedin post which is perfectly fine. However, there's also something more definitive being expressed with the linkedin post and that my gut finds concerning.
For those of us who are not as adept at reading between the lines, what are you inferring? Are you concerned because you think the post is bein disingenuous in some manner?

I agree about the rest, people who are most in the know tend to stay silent, esp. as most are bound to silence, but how else would you read that LinkedIn post? I can think of only the interpretation discussed, or a joke that the market is so bad, that obviously no one would believe a large office dev would start in this climate.
 
I agreed that Union Centre and CC3 are prettier, but the empty spot that the Hub was meant to be built on, is definitely the worst. It is a parking lot in prime real estate with a half renovated historical building. CC3, Union Centre, and Union Park all have serviceable existing buildings in place.

With that said, I much rather this space get filled first TBH.
Yeah fair enough, this one does admittedly feel less shoehorned in
 
I love UT. I've been a member for 25 years. There's a ton of insider information but, as with everything nowadays, buyer beware. In my experience, those that know everything about something shocking are unlikely to even hint that they know something juicy. This thread is speculating on the linkedin post which is perfectly fine. However, there's also something more definitive being expressed with the linkedin post and that my gut finds concerning.
...or it could that reputable execs are fleeing Xitter for better moderated social alternatives that are BueSky and LinkedIn. That would be good reason why should be paying attention to this post, IMO.
 
... I'm still having a hard time that 6% class AA vacancy is not to be considered high. ...

It's certainly not low for Toronto, but for companies who remember in 2018 fighting over short-term 20k sqft sublets spread across several buildings, 6% (and dropping) is low enough that those desiring a large contiguous space in the early 2030's are willing to explore new construction.There's a price mismatch though, new construction costs are up a lot and tenants aren't really prepared for that yet, especially on a 50+ floor building. The recent addition of a potential near-term recession due to trade disputes probably doesn't help either.

Price is an issue with downtown residential too. Tens of thousands of buyers want to pay $700/sqft or less, and some are finding that in locations like Hamilton, but developers are looking for $1200/sqft downtown to break even.

Chicago developers are also starting to see some early discussions with tenants for new trophy office as well, but seem a long way from a signed contract.
 
Last edited:
Sat Feb 8
From the PATH work continues.
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A cold day but open water in the bay.
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From the boardwalk the ice looks very thin and moving with the wind.
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From home, some people ice fishing?
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One person left, maybe on cross country skis. They had a ladder on the shore to climb up the wall.
Crazy.
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Some of the replacement office requirement builds are also proving very problematic:
  • Liberty Market Tower - three years after completion, the commercial space floors are still see-through
  • 400 Dufferin Street - several floors of commercial space still empty years after completion
  • The Taylor at Spadina, again years after completion, the commercial space is still empty, and the developer has submitted and application to the City to redevelop the commercial floors as residential / hotel use
They are just sitting empty because they are priced too high and there needs to be more density/development around them.

The entire ground floor of Nero sat empty for almost ten years despite being on an extremely trendy strip.

West House hasn’t even opened and it leased its huge space to Equinox.

11 Wellesley is fully leased, two floors of medical offices.
 

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