Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[JSF-1]

If anything Oxford and partners have put in a lot of work to date to lose out on this massive windfall opportunity and will be ready to negotiate a win-win amount. They don't need pay for the SCC station really as that's funded for the most part but they need to help fill some of the gaps in adding back in Lawrence and Sheppard for the greater public good.

Oxford doesn't need to help shit. They are under no obligation to spend a single penny on anypart of this project. If Oxford is going to contribute anything to the SSE it will be at STC because that's where they benefit the most. What does Oxford have to gain from spending money on a stop at Lawrence East when they gain no monetary benefit from it? The reason Woodbine is being built by the Private sector is because there is a direct monetary benefit for the parties involved.

 

[Towered]

Wasn't an updated cost for this extension supposed to be made public last fall?

 

[JSF-1]

Wasn't an updated cost for this extension supposed to be made public last fall?

It was but I believe the Mayor's office intentionally delayed it because there was an election (which also to me gives off the hint that the news is not good). The plan goes to the Executive Committee next month, so all will be revealed then.

 

[Allandale25]

I don't see how it's a real issue. They are years away to the decision point about whether they need to include to put in the old signalling system as well, and even $100 million is a rounding error on the $3.2 billion budget (a number that is rumoured to be increasing significantly for other reasons).

(emphasis added)

$3.35 billion according to this Star reporter's tweet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1095728278734819329

 

[ssiguy2]

Onecity.…………..your concern for better transit to STC is a valid one and I don't think anyone here disagrees with it.

The issue is how little the subway will help people considering the massive cost. How would the people in Scar, and STC in particular, be better served by a Danforth extension than by a Smart Track station? The subway extension will make almost no difference in the amount of time it takes people to go from STC to downtown but a ST system would probably get them there is half the time. They would still have access to Eglinton LRT and Danforth subway at Kennedy but have FAR superior service to downtown, Union, First, the Waterfront, Skydome, to say nothing of faster trips to the rest of the GTA thru RER at GO.

I strongly disagree with an LRT which was an incredibly stupid idea to begin with and was a reflection of Miller myopic "LRT or nothing" mentality but a ST system on the back of RER would be far better for Scar and could be up and running in a fraction amount of the time and vastly less money which could be used for Eglinton East further helping Scar.

 

[Leo_Chan]

Onecity.…………..your concern for better transit to STC is a valid one and I don't think anyone here disagrees with it.

The issue is how little the subway will help people considering the massive cost. How would the people in Scar, and STC in particular, be better served by a Danforth extension than by a Smart Track station? The subway extension will make almost no difference in the amount of time it takes people to go from STC to downtown but a ST system would probably get them there is half the time. They would still have access to Eglinton LRT and Danforth subway at Kennedy but have FAR superior service to downtown, Union, First, the Waterfront, Skydome, to say nothing of faster trips to the rest of the GTA thru RER at GO.

I strongly disagree with an LRT which was an incredibly stupid idea to begin with and was a reflection of Miller myopic "LRT or nothing" mentality but a ST system on the back of RER would be far better for Scar and could be up and running in a fraction amount of the time and vastly less money which could be used for Eglinton East further helping Scar.

Oh no, a third breed of transit mode debate has spawned!

 

[nfitz]

$3.35 billion according to this Star reporter's tweet.

I wonder what the reference for that is.

The $3.2 billion was from the city's October 2016 one station cost, using escalated (year of spending) dollars. Earlier there was a $3.56 billion estimate in 2015 (2014?) - but wasn't that for the 3-station version, using 2014 dollars?

So what's this $3.35 billion? Is that for the city's one-station plan (which is still proceeding) or the province's thee-station promise (of which there's been no action)? Is that in escalated dollars or a given year?

edit - to answer my own question.

The subway estimate of $3.2 billion is unchanged from ...actually June 2016 ... to be more precise it's $3.159 million. In February 2017 they added $0.187 for the "Triton Bus Terminal", to come to a total of $3.346 ... aka $3.35 billion.

All escalated costs.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I'm not liking where this is going.

 

[Allandale25]

I wonder what the reference for that is.

The $3.2 billion was from the city's October 2016 one station cost, using escalated (year of spending) dollars. Earlier there was a $3.56 billion estimate in 2015 (2014?) - but wasn't that for the 3-station version, using 2014 dollars?

So what's this $3.35 billion? Is that for the city's one-station plan (which is still proceeding) or the province's thee-station promise (of which there's been no action)? Is that in escalated dollars or a given year?

edit - to answer my own question.

The subway estimate of $3.2 billion is unchanged from ...actually June 2016 ... to be more precise it's $3.159 million. In February 2017 they added $0.187 for the "Triton Bus Terminal", to come to a total of $3.346 ... aka $3.35 billion.

All escalated costs.

Thanks. That's helpful. Any predictions on the next number we'll hear? +/- the $3.56B? I'll start. +$400M

 

[BurlOak]

Oh no, a third breed of transit mode debate has spawned!

We've had this debate before.
The Liberals didn't want to give up track space on Lake shore East, so the best it could achieve was 15 minute service to STC.
With 6 minute service to markham, STC (Malvern) and Pickering, it would have indeed served Scarborough better.

 

[nfitz]

Thanks. That's helpful. Any predictions on the next number we'll hear? +/- the $3.56B? I'll start. +$400M

I'm not sure why the actual 2016$ cost would go up. But the $3.16 (or $3.35) billion is escalated (year of spending), based on a 2023 completion.

Even if the city stays in charge it's going to now be 2026, so it's pretty easy to multiply $3.35 billion by the general 4% rule of thumb for 3 years and get $3.79 billion.

If the province takes over then it's probably another 4 years which makes it $4.41 billion. And if they add back in the $1 billion that was saved by cutting from 3 to 1 station, and escalate that by 7 more years - but remove the Triton terminal costs - then it's $5.47 billion.

So that's my guess, $3.79 if they build the current plan without any delays past 2026, or $5.47 billion if the province uploads and builds the 3-station plan.

 

[44 North]

I just went thru the entire Google satellite between Union and Scar GO station and it's 3 tracks already and looks to have more than enough room to make it 4 tracks between the 2 stations. The small single track between Scar & Kenny has more than enough room for an additional track. This entire section is completely grade separated and will have relatively few stations so a train every 2 minutes is very doable as is every 90 seconds with ATC.

With a new bridge connecting the mainline to STC and new STC station, this could be a complete subway route with very little effort or money. Ford could say he only builds subways and people in Scar would have far superior service to both Kennedy and Union which neither a subway extension, LRT conversion, or ART upgrade could offer.

Well hold on, Danforth Rd at Midland isn't grade separated. You can't get computer controlled trains through a level crossing like that, particularly with the frequencies you're talking. Then there's the industrial side tracks which are still in use. We can't simply turn a mainline railway such as this, from Ellesmere to Union, into a subway line as you propose.

 

[Rainforest]

The issue is how little the subway will help people considering the massive cost. How would the people in Scar, and STC in particular, be better served by a Danforth extension than by a Smart Track station? The subway extension will make almost no difference in the amount of time it takes people to go from STC to downtown but a ST system would probably get them there is half the time. They would still have access to Eglinton LRT and Danforth subway at Kennedy but have FAR superior service to downtown, Union, First, the Waterfront, Skydome, to say nothing of faster trips to the rest of the GTA thru RER at GO.

That's all true, except .. the subway extension is a bird at hand, while RER is a pie in the sky.

You mentioned some of the capital costs involved in making RER work as subway: double-tracking the Uxbridge sub, and quad-tracking Lakeshore East. But, that's not all.

Something has to be done with Scarborough junction; no way to allow 2-min frequencies when the northbound Uxbridge trains cross the path of the westbound Lakeshore trains. Either the tracks have to be grade-separated, or the Uxbridge service has to use the north-most pair of tracks and the LSE the other pair.

Then, the Union station capacity, and the type of trains. Trains that GO uses today need at least 10, and perhaps 15 min to unload. For the 2-min frequency, you will need at least 5, and likely as many as 8 platforms just for LSE and Uxbridge. The stairs might have to be rebuild to handle the much larger volume of passengers.

Then, the acceleration profile of the loco trains. I doubt they can ever run on 2-min headways, because they accelerate and break very slowly. You probably need MU trains, either diesel or electric, to manage that kind of operation.

In summary: not impossible, but requires very substantial investments, and multiple technical hurdles have to be overcome.

 

[jcam]

Conservatives asking developers to pay for stations seems unlikely.

More likely they would want to impose some taxation scheme that whoever purchases the units from the developer will be paying out for decades to come. Which is going to take a long time (if ever) to implement, and will rule out most new GO stations - such as Lawrence East.

Its not unlikely, its happening. And the comment that the SSE is already funded...there's nothing to say that if the government uploads, they don't put YSE extension ahead of SSE, or Relief ahead of SSE, or extra stations on SSE ahead of funding the STC station when Oxford can. And if they province uploads, the City no longer has to pay for SSE, no?

 

[JSF-1]

the City no longer has to pay for SSE, no?

In a perfect world sure. I however highly doubt the Province is going to pay for 2/3 of Subway projects moving forward. Instead what I think will happen is the Province will still ask Toronto contribute funding to Subway projects. There's noway in hell the Province is going to give back the money Toronto has contributed to the SSE or let Toronto pay nothing for things like the YSE and DRL.