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2018 Municipal Election: Toronto Council Races

How many non-incumbent winners will there be on council?


  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
If the challenge is won, can they move the election date back by a month or so?

Remember how we had election fatigue in 2014 because it pretty much started in January and ended in October? Now we've got fatigue that Ford has put upon us and we aren't sure who will run or in which ward.
 
If the courts back Ford, will there be a good case for a civil suit by candidates, many of whom donated their own money and left their jobs to run for office?
 
If the courts back Ford, will there be a good case for a civil suit by candidates, many of whom donated their own money and left their jobs to run for office?
Would they sue the City for challenging and delaying the inevitable?
Or are you saying that immediately after the courts find that Ford was allowed to change the rules, they will sue to argue that Ford shouldn't have changed the rules.
I assume the City election officials are already proceeding with the rules and will be ready for the 25 ward system.
 
Though I strongly disapprove of HOW the reduction in Councillors has been done (and I think it is done) I can accept a 25 Ward Council could be effective. However, the reduction in numbers completely changes who the best councillors might be. Those in the Doug Ford mold of enjoying dealing with pot-holes and speed bumps (though quite popular with voters, despite what we think here) would be TOTALLY unsuitable as the"board of directors" type of councillor that will be needed under the 25 Ward model. We certainly do have some current councillors who can probably make the switch (Cressy and Minan-Wong?) but I doubt that all of the current crop (even some who are excellent now) could cope.
The other problem is that the constituent complaints about speed bumps and pot-holes will not go away but in future ALL of this 'retail politics' will have to be dealt with 100% by councillors' constituency assistants as the councillors themselves will be busy (should be busy) actually running the city and 'we' will need more of them and perhaps a different kind who can (and are allowed to) work with little or no direction. It will be a huge 'culture change' for all of them and there will be no room for the chronic non-performers like Mammo and Grimes or those who simply fail to show up for work.
My first thought was that Ford should have implemented the change in wards for 2022.
As soon as I saw the circus at City Hall, and realized how the Councillors would stab each other in the back for 4 years until the 2022 vote, I now see why its best to do it now. Like pulling off a band-aid. A tiny bit of pain, but best in the (medium and) long run.
 
One thing I've noticed in some discussions I've had is that people seem to think (either from their own logic or from what their councillors are telling them) is that this benefits Etobicoke - which is not the case. The reason this option was not entertained during the Draw The Lines - Toronto Ward Boundary Review, was precisely because

"Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore have a 2026 population variance of +22% and +21% respectively. However, attempting to resolve this situation would require altering the boundaries of several federal ridings and crossing the Humber River, a major natural and historic current ward boundary. This contradicts the purpose of making federal riding boundaries and ward boundaries consistent." (p. 16). Etobicoke Lakeshore and Etobicoke Centre now actually lose representation, and voter parity, with what Doug is ramming down the city.
 
One thing I've noticed in some discussions I've had is that people seem to think (either from their own logic or from what their councillors are telling them) is that this benefits Etobicoke - which is not the case. The reason this option was not entertained during the Draw The Lines - Toronto Ward Boundary Review, was precisely because

"Etobicoke Centre and Etobicoke-Lakeshore have a 2026 population variance of +22% and +21% respectively. However, attempting to resolve this situation would require altering the boundaries of several federal ridings and crossing the Humber River, a major natural and historic current ward boundary. This contradicts the purpose of making federal riding boundaries and ward boundaries consistent." (p. 16). Etobicoke Lakeshore and Etobicoke Centre now actually lose representation, and voter parity, with what Doug is ramming down the city.
Lets look at the population of the proposed wards under the 47 wards in 2018 since I do not understand the logic that balancing wards for the future is more important that balancing for current day.

https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2016/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-97618.pdf

Ward 6 has 65,500 people while Ward 20 has 38,154 effectively giving the largest Etobicoke ward 1.7 times the population of the downtown ward 20 in 2018 assuming we kept with the original ward boundaries.
 
Lets look at the population of the proposed wards under the 47 wards in 2018 since I do not understand the logic that balancing wards for the future is more important that balancing for current day.

https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2016/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-97618.pdf

Ward 6 has 65,500 people while Ward 20 has 38,154 effectively giving the largest Etobicoke ward 1.7 times the population of the downtown ward 20 in 2018 assuming we kept with the original ward boundaries.
I don't think anyone said that having balanced Ward populations based on 2011 information is any better than aiming for balance in 2026 it is just DIFFERENT. As one cannot change Ward boundaries (or Constituency boundaries) every year you need to decide on your 'reference year'. The Federal Act requires a redistribution after each decennial census. The interesting thing will be whether the Province and the City follow the Feds after the redistribution based on the 2021 census. What can probably also be argued is whether MUNICIPSAL boundaries should keep 'neighbourhoods" together as the Feds do not worry too much about that. (e.g. St Lawrence is split at The Esplanade and the Wards are now split there too.) In my opinion, that does not make much sense but maybe the next Federal redistribution will take these finer-grained things into account now that it seems fairly sure that Provincial and Civic boundaries will follow the Feds,.
 
I don't think anyone said that having balanced Ward populations based on 2011 information is any better than aiming for balance in 2026 it is just DIFFERENT. As one cannot change Ward boundaries (or Constituency boundaries) every year you need to decide on your 'reference year'. The Federal Act requires a redistribution after each decennial census. The interesting thing will be whether the Province and the City follow the Feds after the redistribution based on the 2021 census. What can probably also be argued is whether MUNICIPSAL boundaries should keep 'neighbourhoods" together as the Feds do not worry too much about that. (e.g. St Lawrence is split at The Esplanade and the Wards are now split there too.) In my opinion, that does not make much sense but maybe the next Federal redistribution will take these finer-grained things into account now that it seems fairly sure that Provincial and Civic boundaries will follow the Feds,.
I was playing devils advocate a bit with my post. I do not really think the current federal boundaries are that great(since they are using outdated census data) I just feel like the ward boundary review was flawed in many ways and people like to talk about it being a perfect process when there were a lot of problems with it.
 
Lets look at the population of the proposed wards under the 47 wards in 2018 since I do not understand the logic that balancing wards for the future is more important that balancing for current day.

https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2016/ex/bgrd/backgroundfile-97618.pdf

Ward 6 has 65,500 people while Ward 20 has 38,154 effectively giving the largest Etobicoke ward 1.7 times the population of the downtown ward 20 in 2018 assuming we kept with the original ward boundaries.
Regarding the 47 ward system, has Toronto ever been wrong before in their estimates of growth?
If I understand this correctly, the proposed 47 Ward system had a high and low of 65k and 38k (72% difference), while the federal ridings have a high and low of 117k and 93k (26% difference). Who know what that difference will be in the future, but the federal system is re-balanced again in 2024 for the 2026 election.
It seems that the new 25 Ward system is immensely more fair.
 
Assuring compliance with the principles of the MEA and ensuring the integrity and confidence in the electoral process will be severely compromised.
This in itself would not be a non-compliance with the MEA, but the *interference* of doing it could/would be an offence under the Constitution.

Let's put it this way: If Canada were observing an election as part of an International Observer Corp...what Ford et al have just done would be considered a blatant and illegal interference with the agreed voting process. The only reason I can't see the Superior Court rule on this with a severe admonishment to Ford et al, is if the Superior Court finds itself not the venue for the case. It would then go to the SCC.

If the challenge is won, can they move the election date back by a month or so?
Rocco Achampong's latest case grounds are to ask for the election to be declared "Illegitimate". And this is to be heard by Superior Court. This is interesting in itself, as any court remedies to be had under the MEA states lower courts:
Effect of procedural irregularities
(6) The court shall not determine an election to be invalid if,

(a) an irregularity described in subsection (7) occurred at the election but did not affect the result of the election; and

(b) the election was conducted in accordance with the principles of this Act. 1996, c. 32, Sched., s. 83 (6).

Same
(7) Clause (6) (a) applies to the following irregularities:

1. An irregularity on the part of the clerk or in any of the procedures before voting day.

2. Failure to have a voting place open at the appointed location and time.

3. Non-compliance with a provision of this Act or of a regulation, by-law, resolution or procedure made, passed or established under this Act, dealing with voting, counting of votes or time requirements.

4. A mistake in the use of forms, whether prescribed or not.

5. Failure to comply with the procedural requirements imposed under sections 41.1 and 41.2 for a ranked ballot election. 1996, c. 32, Sched., s. 83 (7); 2016, c. 15, s. 44.
[...]
Matters pending appeal
87 (1)  When an order is made under subsection 83 (1) determining a person’s election to an office to be invalid, the person is entitled to sit and vote on the council or local board until,

(a) the appeal period expires without an appeal being filed; or

(b) if an appeal is filed, it is finally disposed of. 1996, c. 32, Sched., s. 87 (1).
https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/96m32

All interesting, but Achampong is going above this level of law, and *apparently* will present a case under Provincial Rights, or Federal Rights legislation/constitutional guarantees. Ford's blatant bragging certainly won't help QP's case in court. Well Ms Mulroney, you got yourself into this...seems the costs of midnight lamps will burn up any savings you ever dreamt about...you might even have to put those kids in public school...oh the horror!
Would they sue the City for challenging and delaying the inevitable?
I do think the answer will lie here:
PRB 08-50E

Electoral Rights: Charter of Rights and Freedoms
James R. Robertson
Sebastian Spano
Law and Government Division


Revised 29 September 2008

pdficon_small.gif
PDF (306 Kb, 57 pages)
https://lop.parl.ca/content/lop/ResearchPublications/prb0850-e.htm

lol! The "Notwithstanding clause" can be used by Ontario if they lose this case. I dare them to!

Addendum:
EagleEye said:
If the challenge is won, can they move the election date back by a month or so?
I purposely avoided directly answering this until I'd given it some more thought, and found case law pertaining to it, the latter being not found with a cursory check, so let me opine (I might be able to reference this later) for now:

The *legislation* will be suspended from being signed into law by the Court even if they fail to rule on the legality of it. (Edit: This would *in effect* be an Injunction) Whether the court 'suspends' the election in Toronto or not is not the question so much as *this time around* is the 47 ward arrangement status quo? I suspect the latter, and then the Legislature will have to do it *legally* next time.

I'm still searching for any more from Achampong on his case. He might wisely be holding his cards close...
 
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This is of interest further to the above, the ethics of this case besides, Achampong is very adept at dealing with the Ontario Superior Court:
Court finds former mayoral candidate ‘sandbagged’ opposing counsel
November 22, 2012|Written By Michael McKierna

A former Toronto mayoral candidate has been ordered to personally pay costs to the husband of his client in a family law case after a judge found he “sandbagged” the opposing man’s lawyer.

Ontario Court Justice Stanley Sherr ordered lawyer Rocco Achampong, who came sixth in the 2010 race for the city’s top job , to pay $1,200 to the husband after Achampong obtained an order in Superior Court, without notice, for the police to deliver the couple’s child to the mother, as well as a temporary restraining order against the father. That was despite an ongoing application dealing with similar issues in the Ontario Court of Justice.

“It is disappointing when the court sees counsel engage in sharp practice. It only feeds into the skewed perception that the public has of family law lawyers. It undermines the good work that family lawyers do. Family law cannot be practised this way and it is incumbent on the court to show its disapproval,” wrote Sherr.

Sherr said the “jurisdictional jigsaw” of family law matters in Toronto meant the mother was entitled to bring the Superior Court application, but noted it was Achampong’s decision not to let the father’s lawyer know he was wasting his time at the lower court.

The couple married in 2009 and separated in the summer of this year. The mother initially went to provincial court to seek custody and child support, but the case was dismissed in September as the parties attempted a reconciliation.

But that was short-lived, and in October, after the mother refused to let the father see his child, he issued his own application in provincial court. At the same time, he collected the child from daycare and did not return her to the mother.

On Oct. 10, an early motion date was set for Oct. 16 in Provincial Court, and Achampong and the father’s lawyer, John Schuman were in frequent correspondence over the next two days, before Achampong, acting on his client’s instructions, brought the motion in Superior Court on Oct. 12.

“In colloquial terms, Mr. Schuman was sandbagged on October 12, 2012 by Mr. Achampong. Mr. Achampong may have been directed by his client to take steps that day to have the child returned, but he had a professional obligation to advise Mr. Schuman that he was doing this,” Sherr wrote in his decision, adding he was initially sympathetic to the position Achampong was in.

“This was a difficult case. His client was undoubtedly anxious and pressing him to do something immediately to have her child returned to her. He was not satisfied with Mr. Schuman’s response to his requests to have the child returned to his client. He demonstrated in his correspondence a desire to resolve the matter without litigation. He showed considerable commitment to his client by cancelling a trip to Bavaria to deal with this matter. I had less sympathy for Mr. Achampong after he asked to make direct submissions in court. He attempted to minimize and rationalize his conduct,” the decision reads.

“This court would be much more sympathetic to Mr. Achampong if he had just said that he had made a mistake in judgment in the heat of emotional litigation. The arguments submitted by Mr. Achampong informed the court that at a very fundamental level he doesn’t appreciate that what he did was wrong. The objective of this exercise is not to punish Mr. Achampong and I regret any embarrassment the publication of this decision may cause him, but it is important to send a specific message to Mr. Achampong and a general message to the public that this is not the way family law is to be conducted, and in the rare cases where counsel act this way, the court will voice its disapproval and impose costs consequences. It is essential that family law litigants and counsel have confidence that they will be treated fairly during a difficult process.”
https://www.canadianlawyermag.com/l...l-candidate-sandbagged-opposing-counsel-4832/

In deference to Achampong, there might have been subsequent rulings beyond the above. My point is that he's a "sharp" lawyer. Looks like Mulroney's going to have to hone her legal linguistics let alone learn to dance in the halls of justice if she's to stand a chance on this...

“jurisdictional jigsaw” ya gotta love it! "Those who live by the 'saw' die by the 'saw' ."
 

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Rumours running around City Council offices is that the NDP are in a jam. Layton and Cressy can't agree on who's running in which riding. Layton does better in the more residential single home neighbourhoods of his ward. Cressy isn't liked in the vertical communities in CityPlace and the Waterfront. Neither want to run in the more Conservative South Core.

This is why they're fighting the 25 ward arrangement like their political life depends on it. It does. This is an existential crisis for both city councillors.

Ultimately, one of them is going to have to take Spadina Fort York, and I honestly think that whoever does, whoever it is, is vulnerable. Kevin Vuong has been canvassing non stop since May. He's bar none, the hardest working candidate in this race. Meanwhile, Ausma Malik has been MIA in the ward. Han Dong has literally gone fishing.
I feel like neither Layton or Cressy would face any issue getting re-elected in either riding.
 
I skimmed through the past 20 pages and I am surprised nobody has posted a map showing how the cutting of council will impact races.

Pulled from twitter, and it is a bit dated now considering some high profile dropping outs (de Baeremaeker, di ciano), but good reference nonetheless:

DjEwELIVsAAUkC5.jpg


DjEwF59UwAAP9xl.jpg


Assorted thoughts:
  • I think we can all be very supportive of John Campbell taking out Holyday
  • Peter Milczyn better run against Mark Grimes.
  • Perruzza with his Italian surname would have a serious chance of actually taking out Mammolitti.
 

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