Sheppard Line 4 Subway Extension (Proposed)

[Hopkins123]

Sheppard opened 16 years ago. When do they plan on leveling all the single family homes in the area for condos?

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bessarion+Rd+&+Sheppard+Ave+E,+North+York,+ON/@43.7691449,-79.3766209,3a,75y,75.53h,78.85t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sC8_t1NrLRhALJPTp3QtCvw!2e0!6s//geo0.ggpht.com/cbk?panoid=C8_t1NrLRhALJPTp3QtCvw&output=thumbnail&cb_client=search.TACTILE.gps&thumb=2&w=86&h=86&yaw=192.1128&pitch=0&thumbfov=100!7i13312!8i6656!4m5!3m4!1s0x89d4d2b44e7aecf7:0x7c7bbb4fe5de1de5!8m2!3d43.7691847!4d-79.3766875

Bessarion is exhibit A for why the Sheppard Line was completely necessary. This is not an environment that needs a subway.

It's an example we should learn from, a mistake not to be repeated.

People can bring up Old Mill all they'd like, but it's sandwiched between two very heavily used stations in Jane and Royal York.

Let's remember folks, Old Mill and High Park would likely be all single family homes were the subway not in place as an anchor for redevelopment.

This is Old Mill and High Park today, and what Bessarion will be and more once the Canadian Tire lands are built upon:

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.6494296,-79.4937702,579m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en
https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.6549946,-79.4658059,455a,35y,180h/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en

 

[syn]

Let's remember folks, Old Mill and High Park would likely be all single family homes were the subway not in place as an anchor for redevelopment.

This is Old Mill and High Park today, and what Bessarion will be and more once the Canadian Tire lands are built upon:

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.6494296,-79.4937702,579m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en
https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.6549946,-79.4658059,455a,35y,180h/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en

High Park was along the 2nd busiest streetcar line in the city, which the Bloor-Danforth replaced. There was already an urban grid in place, with Bloor West Village very close by.

Old Mill is between Jane and Royal York stations, both of which have very high traffic.

It will take far more than the development of the Canadian Tire lands to justify a subway there. Bessarion, according to 2016 stats, has just 27% of the riders that High Park does - and High Park has Keele station (14,610 riders) less than 600m away, and Runnymede (nearly 20,000 riders) less than 800m to the west.

That short stretch of three stations handles nearly 45,000 riders a day.

Bayview, Bessarion and Leslie handle less than Runnymede alone.

This is exactly why the Sheppard Subway was a huge mistake. There's no need for a subway there. Spending money on subways in areas not suitable for subways is idiotic when there are many other areas of critical need in the city. Even after 16 years, the ridership and development in the area is nowhere near close enough to justify it.

An LRT would've been fine on Sheppard, and still will be for the rest of it. The Sheppard line could've been postponed for about 80 years, and considered at a time when it actually made sense.

 

[Streety McCarface]

High Park was along the 2nd busiest streetcar line in the city, which the Bloor-Danforth replaced. There was already an urban grid in place, which Bloor West Village very close by.

Old Mill is between Jane and Royal York stations, both of which have very high traffic.

It will take far more than the development of the Canadian Tire lands to justify a subway there. Bessarion, according to 2016 stats, has just 27% of the riders that High Park does - and High Park has Keele station (14,610 riders) less than 600m away, and Runnymede (nearly 20,000 riders) less than 800m to the west.

That short stretch of three stations handles nearly 45,000 riders a day.

Bayview, Bessarion and Leslie handle less than Runnymede alone.

This is exactly why the Sheppard Subway was a huge mistake. There's no need for a subway there. Spending money on subways in areas not suitable for subways is idiotic when there are many other areas of critical need in the city. Even after 16 years, the ridership and development in the area is nowhere near close enough to justify it.

An LRT would've been fine on Sheppard, and still will be for the rest of it. The Sheppard line could've been postponed for about 80 years, and considered at a time when it actually made sense.

If I recall correctly, the Sheppard Bus was once the busiest bus route in all of Canada...It makes sense now with all the development that is ensuing along the line. As I recall, the section you mention has been around for about 50 years. That's not a fair comparison given the amount of time the BD line has had to develop.

If you change your catchment area to Sheppard Yonge, Bayview, and Bessarion or even Bessarion, Leslie, Don Mills, the ridership is about the same. You can pick any section of the system and you can find low ridership.
- Try The Spadina Subway between Museum and St Clair West, Spadina and Dupont only get about 10-15K passengers each, and Museum only about 8K, quite low for stations so close to downtown. (St George is the exception because it's a transfer station).
- What about between Bloor and St Clair? Summerhill and Rosedale see only around 6K PPD, meaning the 2 km section between St Clair West and Bloor Yonge only sees 6K passengers per km, lower than that of the Sheppard Subway.
- The Donlands, Greenwood, Coxwell, Woodbine section of the subway is almost 4 km and only sees about 50K passengers per day, similar to that of the Sheppard subway.
- The subway between Yorkdale and Dupont (Not including Yorkdale or Dupont) sees about 50K passengers per day with a distance of 6 km. The Passenger/km ratio there is even lower than the sheppard subway.

The point is that you can't judge the stub for low ridership when comparable areas all over the system have ridership similar to that of the stub. No one complains about Summerhill/Rosedale, or the subway through Allen Road or through the annex because the few stations that get huge ridership (Finch, Sheppard Yonge, Eglinton, St Clair) make up for everything.

 

[syn]

If I recall correctly, the Sheppard Bus was once the busiest bus route in all of Canada...It makes sense now with all the development that is ensuing along the line. As I recall, the section you mention has been around for about 50 years. That's not a fair comparison given the amount of time the BD line has had to develop.

There isn't that much development ensuing along the line, certainly not relative to what's necessary to justify a subway.

The obvious upgrade to a busy bus route is light rail.

The point is that you can't judge the stub for low ridership when comparable areas all over the system have ridership similar to that of the stub. No one complains about Summerhill/Rosedale, or the subway through Allen Road or through the annex because the few stations that get huge ridership (Finch, Sheppard Yonge, Eglinton, St Clair) make up for everything.

Of course they don't - They're sandwiched closely between two extremely busy stations.

I'd also say the idea that no one 'complains' about Summerhill isn't accurate - it's widely known downtown as the most useless station on the Yonge Line.

No one is going to worry about lines/stations that already exist. What's done is done. Using these stations and lines to justify additional terrible planning decisions is insanity. The Sheppard Line is an example of exactly what we shouldn't be doing - putting expensive urban infrastructure in suburban areas that have nowhere near the capacity to justify them.

 

[UD2]

Sheppard opened 16 years ago. When do they plan on leveling all the single family homes in the area for condos?

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bessarion+Rd+&+Sheppard+Ave+E,+North+York,+ON/@43.7691449,-79.3766209,3a,75y,75.53h,78.85t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sC8_t1NrLRhALJPTp3QtCvw!2e0!6s//geo0.ggpht.com/cbk?panoid=C8_t1NrLRhALJPTp3QtCvw&output=thumbnail&cb_client=search.TACTILE.gps&thumb=2&w=86&h=86&yaw=192.1128&pitch=0&thumbfov=100!7i13312!8i6656!4m5!3m4!1s0x89d4d2b44e7aecf7:0x7c7bbb4fe5de1de5!8m2!3d43.7691847!4d-79.3766875

Bessarion is exhibit A for why the Sheppard Line was completely necessary. This is not an environment that needs a subway.

It's an example we should learn from, a mistake not to be repeated.

People can bring up Old Mill all they'd like, but it's sandwiched between two very heavily used stations in Jane and Royal York.

I recommend you get to know the area a bit more before making such comments. Concord Park place is a development that's happening and the presence of the subway line is a material driver. Most developments that are currently happening east of Bayview Village and south of Sheppard are all closer to Bessarion than Bayview station. North of Sheppard there is the townhouse development that had just happened another large developing at 1200 Sheppard E that's been under planning for years.

 

[Streety McCarface]

I recommend you get to know the area a bit more before making such comments. Concord Park place is a development that's happening and the presence of the subway line is a material driver. Most developments that are currently happening east of Bayview Village and south of Sheppard are all closer to Bessarion than Bayview station. North of Sheppard there is the townhouse development that had just happened another large developing at 1200 Sheppard E that's been under planning for years.

Don't forget Emerald City at don mills. Sheppard Avenue is getting the most development of any major East-West street north of St Clair (ignore clusters like Yonge and Eglinton).

 

[drum118]

Given the rate of development along Sheppard, it will be decades before a lot of those single homes disappear to support the current subway or any extension.

Concord Park will have very little impact of new riders for Bessarion and only have to look at what been built in that area the last 10 years to see it.

1200 Sheppard will provide very few new riders to the Sheppard line.

With all the new development around Bayview Station, ridership increase is a small number.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Given the rate of development along Sheppard, it will be decades before a lot of those single homes disappear to support the current subway or any extension.

Concord Park will have very little impact of new riders for Bessarion and only have to look at what been built in that area the last 10 years to see it.

1200 Sheppard will provide very few new riders to the Sheppard line.

With all the new development around Bayview Station, ridership increase is a small number.

If anything, this shows that development alone isn't enough to increase ridership. Surface connections are the big ridership builders in this city.
But let's just make some assumptions. With these 3 developments, each housing about 5-10K people each, we'll say 33% will commute by subway daily. It would likely be higher than this, but for the sake of a hypothetical situation, the combination of these three developments will increase the daily ridership of the Sheppard line by about 7,500 PPD, which is huge for the line, and this is just a conservative estimate. If 100% of new dwellers choose to use the subway daily, the ridership of the line goes up to 72,000 PPD, bringing it fairly close to the ridership usage of the Spadina Line, meaning it's no longer terribly underutilized. This will take decades though.

 

[11th]

Given the rate of development along Sheppard, it will be decades before a lot of those single homes disappear to support the current subway or any extension.

Concord Park will have very little impact of new riders for Bessarion and only have to look at what been built in that area the last 10 years to see it.

1200 Sheppard will provide very few new riders to the Sheppard line.

With all the new development around Bayview Station, ridership increase is a small number.

That is because most stations outside the downtown core rely on feeder routes for riders (exception being North York Centre but that is a different beast). 11 Bayview and 51 Leslie are definitely not routes with high ridership. Scarborough has better feeder routes: Victoria Park, Warden, Kennedy, and Stouffville GO if RER and fare integration are in place. For North York, a westward extension will hit 7 Bathurst.

Right now line 4 acts as a branch of line1. People should be horrified if line 4 in its current form doubles its current ridership numbers, because Sheppard-Yonge and line 1 will not be able handle those increased loads.

 

[Streety McCarface]

That is because most stations outside the downtown core rely on feeder routes for riders (exception being North York Centre but that is a different beast). 11 Bayview and 51 Leslie are definitely not routes with high ridership. Scarborough has better feeder routes: Victoria Park, Warden, Kennedy, and Stouffville GO if RER and fare integration are in place. For North York, a westward extension will hit 7 Bathurst.

Right now line 4 acts as a branch of line1. People should be horrified if line 4 in its current form doubles its current ridership numbers, because Sheppard-Yonge and line 1 will not be able handle those increased loads.

Sheppard yonge will be able to handle it, but the real question: will the Yonge line be able to handle the influx of passengers? When DRL long is built, we'll see.

 

[drum118]

Sheppard yonge will be able to handle it, but the real question: will the Yonge line be able to handle the influx of passengers? When DRL long is built, we'll see.

NO!!

 

[syn]

I recommend you get to know the area a bit more before making such comments. Concord Park place is a development that's happening and the presence of the subway line is a material driver. Most developments that are currently happening east of Bayview Village and south of Sheppard are all closer to Bessarion than Bayview station. North of Sheppard there is the townhouse development that had just happened another large developing at 1200 Sheppard E that's been under planning for years.

I'm well aware of these developments - that really doesn't change the fact that this corridor is quite a few projects of that magnitude away from justifying the existence of a subway there. An LRT could easily handle the influx of residents these projects will bring.

The subway has not only been complete for 16 years, it was known in the mid-90s it would be happening. The development along the route isn't terribly impressive, all things considered.

As of 2015 it was estimated to operate at a subsidy of $10/rider.

You build this kind of infrastructure where it's needed - not in areas where it's completely unnecessary and then hope development eventually justifies it.

 

[44 North]

Not even the mid-90s. Since the *mid-80s* it was known a subway was happening. I dunno, I don't see huge amounts in terms of high-density development. Yes it's not a warehouse or bungalow, but really it's not all that much added population. Metro saw high-density clusters across the city, subway or no, all the way back into the 60s. An LRT on Sheppard could've brought identical development to what's seen today. This is why it's annoying when people continually point to Sheppard E of Yonge and say only subways herpdyderp. They're really pointing to a zoning change and higher land value brought by some form of transit, not "subways".

As an observation, one thing I notice is how quiet Sheppard between Yonge and Don Mills seems to be in terms of pedestrians, cyclists, rollerbladers, etc. Whereas Sheppard east of Vic Pk I do see lots of these things. Around Shep/Kennedy it's pretty darn busy with people milling all over. Really brings it home why the corridor should've been built with another technology that could've brought the line much further east using the same ~$1bn funding envelope. A line built for +30k pphpd is grossly excessive and left a lot of people east of Don Mills high and dry.

 

[syn]

Not even the mid-90s. Since the *mid-80s* it was known a subway was happening. I dunno, I don't see huge amounts in terms of high-density development. Yes it's not a warehouse or bungalow, but really it's not all that much added population. Metro saw high-density clusters across the city, subway or no, all the way back into the 60s. An LRT on Sheppard could've brought identical development to what's seen today. This is why it's annoying when people continually point to Sheppard E of Yonge and say only subways herpdyderp. They're really pointing to a zoning change and higher land value brought by some form of transit, not "subways".

As an observation, one thing I notice is how quiet Sheppard between Yonge and Don Mills seems to be in terms of pedestrians, cyclists, rollerbladers, etc. Whereas Sheppard east of Vic Pk I do see lots of these things. Around Shep/Kennedy it's pretty darn busy with people milling all over. Really brings it home why the corridor should've been built with another technology that could've brought the line much further east using the same ~$1bn funding envelope. A line built for +30k pphpd is grossly excessive and left a lot of people east of Don Mills high and dry.

Back in the 80s they predicted there would be major business development in these centres as downtown grew in price. That hasn't happened though; downtown has become even more desirable, and corridors like Sheppard have remained mostly suburban & residential in nature. This was a clear trend some time ago.

It makes no sense to continue making these same mistakes, when there's a clear need for subway infrastructure in other areas.

LRTs would serve areas like this very, very well.

 

[rbt]

I recommend you get to know the area a bit more before making such comments. Concord Park place is a development that's happening and the presence of the subway line is a material driver. Most developments that are currently happening east of Bayview Village and south of Sheppard are all closer to Bessarion than Bayview station. North of Sheppard there is the townhouse development that had just happened another large developing at 1200 Sheppard E that's been under planning for years.

Yep, and a fully completed Concord Park will provide nearly enough riders for 10 trains per day (population of build-out + modal split). That's the type of density needed to support LRT with walk-in clients; gotta go well beyond that to support a subway (without giant subsidies).

I personally don't mind giant subsidies (particularly at the provincial level; corporate/income tax) BUT the same people proposing subways are also the anti-tax crowd who do things like defer construction of bus storage facilities to save a couple million. It's hard to argue one tiny area of Scarborough should have a subway at their door while simultaneously saying that 99% of Scarborough shouldn't even have enough bus service to carry them to the subway.