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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

Is it common for a candidate who lost their seat to run for the party leadership immediately following their loss? In not, Steven Del Duca, Yasir Naqvi and Mitzie Hunter could be in trouble.
 
I live in Del Duca's riding and his Conservative opponent seems to have a decent ground game. They are ahead or on par in the sign war and they have already knocked on my door handing out their flyer.

Before he became an MPP Del Duca was a bit of a nobody in the area so he could loose in a 'change' election.
 
mjl08 said:
Is it common for a candidate who lost their seat to run for the party leadership immediately following their loss? In not, Steven Del Duca, Yasir Naqvi and Mitzie Hunter could be in trouble.
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Of course the election is fluid and 'sign wars' are less than determinative.

However, when I was up Mitzi's neck of the woods, going to Sheridan Nursery, I found her well ahead in the sign war, at least on Bellamy.
 
Jesse Spindler and David Morris are two fresh-faced candidates likely to win in St. Paul's and Toronto Centre, respectively. It might be helpful for the Liberals to elect a 'new' face for the party. I wouldn't be surprised if some members of Trudeau's caucus pull a "Patrick Brown" and decides to run for the provincial leadership. I've heard that with Trudeau's quest for cabinet gender equity, some high profile and veteran male caucus members are upset with their role on the sidelines.. Maybe someone like Mark Holland, Adam Vaughan or *gasp* David McGuinty would throw their hat in the ring.
 
narduch said:
I live in Del Duca's riding and his Conservative opponent seems to have a decent ground game. They are ahead or on par in the sign war and they have already knocked on my door handing out their flyer.

Before he became an MPP Del Duca was a bit of a nobody in the area so he could loose in a 'change' election.
Click to expand...

York Region was very close in the federal election, with the Conservatives winning more than 40% of the popular vote, in spite of the red tide nationally (which ain't happening now!). It was not a total blowout for them like in Peel.

Del Duca never struck me as a Sorbara or Bevilacqua type figure, but more of a person who was there at the right time. And not sure if being the "visible face' of an unpopular government in the region helps him that much.
 
mjl08 said:
Jesse Spindler and David Morris are two fresh-faced candidates likely to win in St. Paul's and Toronto Centre, respectively. It might be helpful for the Liberals to elect a 'new' face for the party. I wouldn't be surprised if some members of Trudeau's caucus pull a "Patrick Brown" and decides to run for the provincial leadership. I've heard that with Trudeau's quest for cabinet gender equity, some high profile and veteran male caucus members are upset with their role on the sidelines.. Maybe someone like Mark Holland, Adam Vaughan or *gasp* David McGuinty would throw their hat in the ring.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't surprise me at all. There's not "Trudeau" waiting in the wings, and I don't know who can play the Bob Rae caretaker role either.
 
MetroMan said:
Who said that the NDP hit their ceiling? They've been gradually increasing without having hit any ceiling. They have at least 5-10% of growth left, if not more. Liberals are moving to the NDP as it becomes clear that Horwath is the one to beat Ford.
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Precisely - as I mentioned earlier, my natural inclination is to vote Liberal, but I'll gladly throw my support behind the NDP if they have the better shot at preventing a Doug disaster, and I have a strong feeling that there are a ton of people who think the same way.
 
Is there any chance of the Liberals turning this around? Is there any precedent for a party so low in third place climbing out of the wreckage in two weeks? Is the best that they can hope for a narrow official opposition win?
 
Sadly, even with the numbers close I think the PCs have a structural advantage and clearer path to victory. than the NDP does, even with the numbers neck in neck. Especially given that the NDP are underperfoming in the polls in Toronto (at least to date).

The NDP should be secretly wishing the Liberals prevail in "John Tory Liberal" ridings like Willowdale, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence and Etobicoke Lakeshore where the NDP has no hope whatsoever of winning. While Ford lost those areas municipally, and he's likely to underperform to a more generic/establishment PC leader, the PCs can slip through because of vote-splitting.

Then there's the question of Ford's residual popularity in Scarborough. All the Scarborough ridings except Agincourt are potentially NDP ridings. But Ford throws a monkey wrench into what would normally be an aversion to voting PC. He doesn't need to clean up, but just win a plurality of votes in those ridings. To what extent on voting day personal loyalty to Ford translates into voting for the PC Party remains to be seen.
 
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I work in the Don Valley West riding and the NDP have zero sign presences. Take that for what you will.

That being said not many signs for Wynne or her Conservative counterpart either. I guess people with $4 million homes don't want election signs on their yards.
 
I'm not seeing a whole lot of signs anywhere. Is that a sign (pun intended) of things changing, i.e., there are better ways to advertise? Or is it a sign that the choices of who to support are less than inspiring?
 
mjl08 said:
Is there any chance of the Liberals turning this around? Is there any precedent for a party so low in third place climbing out of the wreckage in two weeks? Is the best that they can hope for a narrow official opposition win?
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Yes. Although not for the Libs alone.

Absent from discussion is *coalition*...and once the NDP hit a ceiling, and perhaps even fall back a bit, and the Libs come up a bit, talk of a coalition, in whatever form, makes a number of situations different. Those who abandoned the Libs to vote Dipper will return to the Libs. Even with FPTP, there should be enough seats possible to form a government. If that doesn't appear possible before the election date, then strategic voting might be put on the table.

None of this would happen if the thought of a Thug running the province wasn't so pertifying. Elliot or Mulroney couldn't/wouldn't scare people enough to gel "Anything But" against the Tories.

Elliot or Mulroney may not be others choice, but they could sleep at night with either of them at the helm. God knows what mayhem Ford will spawn.
 
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