2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

[King of Kensington]

Anyone find it very hard to see the Liberals collapse to as low as a couple of seats, as some pollsters are sugesting? Hell, even after the NDP's 1995 disaster, they still had 17 seats in a similarly sized legislature.

I think the Liberals still find a way to hit the low teens in seats. The Liberals have a huge 'Get Out the Vote' machine that was instrumental in Trudeau's win. The OLP likely can hold on to 5-7 seats in the GTHA, a few in Ottawa, and one or two in some tight three-way races in university towns.

The NDP base vote is much more geographically concentrated than the Liberal base though. I can't see them getting 17 seats on these numbers.

To me, the safest seat in the province is probably St. Paul's, followed by Ottawa-Vanier. Other likely holds are Ottawa South, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Toronto Centre. The NDP may hit the "Avenue Rd. wall" in University-Rosedale, allowing the Libs to eke out a victory. The personal popularity of the two Thunder Bay Liberal MPPs may allow them to hold those seats. Kingston is a maybe (though I think it'll go NDP). Maybe a couple of random GTA seats. But I struggle to think of 15 seats the Libs will prevail in.

 

[christiesplits]

The NDP base vote is much more geographically concentrated than the Liberal base though. I can't see them getting 17 seats on these numbers.

To me, the safest seat in the province is probably St. Paul's, followed by Ottawa-Vanier. Other likely holds are Ottawa South, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Toronto Centre. The NDP may hit the "Avenue Rd. wall" in University-Rosedale, allowing the Libs to eke out a victory. The personal popularity of the two Thunder Bay Liberal MPPs may allow them to hold those seats. Kingston is a maybe (though I think it'll go NDP). Maybe a couple of random GTA seats. But I struggle to think of 15 seats the Libs will prevail in.

I keep on going back-and-forth about the NDP's chances in Toronto Centre and University Rosedale, for some of the same reasons you mention. If the NDP solidies the 'Anyone but Ford' slot, maybe you can see the unimaginable, like genteel Summerhill boomers voting NDP. Could Spadina-Fort York, a massive condo fortress of DINKs in tech and financial services, choose the lesser of two evils and support a bread-and-butter populist like Horwath?

Olivia Chow, Linda McQuaig and Jennifer Hollett are probably kicking themselves for not waiting a few years.

 

[King of Kensington]

Why not? The NDP cleaned up in what became Fort York in the 2011 federal election. And since then the composition of the condo population has shifted significantly towards renters.

Looking at the inner Toronto ridings, it's obvious that Davenport, Parkdale-High Park and Danforth have a stronger NDP voting base (40% even in "bad" times). Others, like Fort York and Beaches are more what I call "liberally minded" and go NDP in the right circumstances (such as now).

 

[King of Kensington]

St. Paul's is the most Liberal because it has the largest "too educated to vote Conservative (and especially Ford), too bourgeois to vote NDP" demographic.

 

[TrickyRicky]

If recent elections elsewhere in the world are any indication the polls have been poor at predicting support for populists.

That said a PC or NDP minority would probably best represent voter sentiment in Ontario in my opinion. People want change but they don’t trust the leadership of the alternatives yet. A trial minority period would help people solidify their opinions.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I keep on going back-and-forth about the NDP's chances in Toronto Centre

Here in Cabbagetown I see a lot of NDP signs, and sense there's far more Dipper momentum than past elections. It doesn't help the Liberal cause that their incumbent MPP fled the riding just before the election.

 

[Videodrome]

Tom Parkin @Tom_Parkin_
4h
Global News seat projection shows NDP candidate beating Doug Ford in Etobicoke North and a leaderless PC party clinging to one-seat majority of 64, with Horwath’s NDP close at 54. Liberals obliterated—6 seats. It’s Ford of Horwath, people.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4212098/ontario-election-simulation-map/

 

[PinkLucy]

I would love to see Doug defeated in his own riding.

 

[Videodrome]

https://www.thepostmillennial.com/s...estions-remain-over-his-relationship-to-ford/

Two candidates now.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I would love to see Doug defeated in his own riding.

Best odds for that are for Shafiq Qaadri to run without NDP splintering the antiFo vote, so need to convince NDP to have Mahamud Amin stand down.

 

[Hopkins123]

Update on the various poll aggregators and electoral predictions models.

LISPOP - updated May 22
PC 38% NDP 33% LIB 23%
Seats: PC69, NDP 39, LIB 16
Secondary Seat Count if TCTC races removed, PC 53, NDP 31, Lib 7

Election Prediction Project - Updated May 21
PC 46, NDP 21, LIB 12, TCTC 45

Polltracker - Updated May 22
PC 37.9%, NDP 33.8%, LIB 23%, GRN 4%
Seats: PC 79, NDP 44, LIB 5, GRN 0

Majority Government = 63 seats (* if speaker comes from government can only cast tie-breaking vote)

See? I was not wrong! Guess I'm not a !!!!head as you put it after all. If the NDP have met their ceiling, which I suspect they have, it's game over.

Strong. Stable. Conservative. Majority!

 

[King of Kensington]

See? I was not wrong! Guess I'm not a !!!!head as you put it after all. If the NDP have met their ceiling, which I suspect they have, it's game over.

Strong. Stable. Conservative. Majority!

With St. Paul's included. Even the "Liberal elites" are going to stick it to themselves.

 

[JGHali]

I reaaaaallly want to see the Star front page with faces of all 29 crooked PC candidates...

 

[narduch]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/new.../+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links

This is bad for the PC's.

That article is dated March 1?

 

[PinkLucy]

Yes. Seems like “old” news.