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2018 Ontario Provincial Election Discussion

Jasmine18 said: ↑
Out here in Brampton the liberals are trying hard to stay relevant but the issue is how are those people going to vote that dont put up signs.
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steveintoronto said:
Can't make sense of what point you're trying to make, or if it's sarcasm.
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OK, now I understand your sentence. It was awkward English. (gist) "For the persons that aren't putting up signs, not sure which way they're going to vote."

Just up at TorStar:
Wynne calls for police probe into PC nominations
By ROB FERGUSONQueen's Park Bureau
Sat., May 19, 2018
https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...lls-for-police-probe-into-pc-nominations.html
 
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NatPost is on Ford's case:
Chris Selley: Ontario PC vote fraud allegations are bananas — and disturbingly plausible
An astonishing number of partisans seem willing to tolerate this behaviour — the way it’s always been, you know? In a general election, people would go to prison
[...]
But the Ontario Progressive Conservatives are currently coming to grips with a far more complex and devious scenario: it is alleged that someone stole 60,000 names, addresses and phone numbers from the privately-owned Highway 407 ETR’s internal systems and distributed or sold the data to a couple of dozen candidates in GTA nomination races. Those campaigns then sold fake party memberships under the stolen names, mocked up identification that met the party’s requirements (which do not include photo ID), and paid international students $200 a pop to vote under these fraudulent identities.
[...]
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http://nationalpost.com/opinion/chr...ations-are-bananas-and-disturbingly-plausible

Christie Blatchford: Wynne is right — Doug Ford should call in police to probe 407 data theft
If the Progressive Conservative don’t want this thing to spin out of control, they ought to have some other body other than their own party have a look into it
[...]
But the Post’s Tom Blackwell also saw what appeared to be some of the stolen data, which itself appeared linked to another PC operative, suggesting it may have been used to help other candidates secure nominations.

By midday Thursday, radio station Newstalk 1010 in Toronto was reporting that its sources said the data may have been used, even allegedly paid for, by more than two dozen Tory candidates.

“If we believe this situation … that they (candidates) relied on stolen personal data to secure their nominations, it’s a very disturbing question,” Wynne said.

“Doug Ford is aspiring to lead the province and I think, I actually think, there’s only one course and that is complete transparency and honesty. I think he needs to bring in the police. I think he needs to share everything that’s known, open up every corner of the campaign to examination and then to offer a complete public accounting. I think that’s actually the only way forward.”

Wynne acknowledged that Ford may well have “inherited” the problem, whatever its scope, from his predecessor, Patrick Brown. “I get that,” she said, “but I still think there has to be an examination of what went on.”

In the wake of Brown’s sudden resignation earlier this year, amid allegations of sexual misconduct (which fell far short of any alleged criminal behaviour), the party found itself rudderless with an election imminent. Other allegations surfaced too, of bullying and mismanagement.

Veteran MPP Vic Fedeli, for one brief period a contender for Brown’s job, was instead appointed as interim leader and clean-up man. He pronounced that he would “root out the rot” and then several weeks later, announced that he had.

Yet as recently as last month, explaining why he had appointed 11 candidates, Ford said he’d inherited a total “mess” from Brown.

The issue, if not a full-blown scandal, appears on the horizon as a gift for Wynne’s Liberals, by most polls last in the race, in third behind the New Democrats and with Ford solidly out front.

Coupled with other more banal difficulties — paid actors appearing as supporters at one candidate’s rally and Ford’s own peek-a-boo campaign style with the media — the story raises the spectre of a party unable to conduct an election, let alone run the province.

And such things can breathe life into faltering battles.
[...]
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http://nationalpost.com/opinion/chr...should-call-in-police-to-probe-407-data-theft

I'm just so shocked I tell you. That Ford Fella, seems like such an intelligent, well-mannered honest man. Gosh, I have no idea why people don't see how wonderful he and his friends are.
 
John_Dee said:
This election is like watching a slow motion disaster unfolding in real time.
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I've been saying this for a few weeks now.

People have totally tuned Wynne out. My guess is they have made too many promises and too much of hard turn left.

People say Wynne is a great debater and great campaigner but I haven't been impressed.

I think what she really was was a great party fundraiser. But that had to end when they got caught holding excessive pay for access events.

There is still time but it's not looking good for the Liberals. June 7 is around the corner.
 
This is interesting, and further evidence that 'all is not well' with the fractured Reactionary Right in Ontario.

Some background:
TORONTO, August 4, 2017 (LifeSiteNews) — With ever increasing reports of angry Tories decamping from Patrick Brown’s Progressive Conservative Party amid allegations of rigged nomination, ballot-stuffing, and “take no prisoners” party operatives pushing the leader’s agenda from the top down, the question must be asked.

What are all those ex-PC Party members doing?

Enter the soon-to-be registered Ontario Alliance Party, founded by Jay Tysick, the Ottawa-area political consultant whose public dismay at being disqualified as PC Party candidate for Carleton made him a lightning rod for similarly disaffected party members. [...]
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https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/disgruntled-conservatives-break-away-to-form-new-party-in-ontario

In today's Guelph press (the irony of this being Schreiner's shrine of late is hard to escape)
Guelph provincial candidate now running as an independent
NEWS May 18, 2018 by Graeme McNaughton Guelph Mercury

A candidate looking to become Guelph’s next MPP is now running as an independent.

Thomas Mooney, who had originally been running for the Ontario Alliance Party, filed notice with Elections Ontario over the weekend of May 12 that he would no longer be running under a party label.

Multiple requests for comment were made to the Ontario Alliance Party for this story, but none were returned.

Mooney says his decision came after, without warning, the party dissolved its riding associations registered with Elections Ontario.

“My riding president, he got that email out of the blue,” Mooney says of an email sent by Elections Ontario on May 11.

“He wasn’t aware it was happening. Apparently the email went to Elections Ontario on May 5, and we just found out about it.”

According to an email sent by Richard Naranowicz, the chief financial officer of the Alliance, to Elections Ontario on May 5, the party was looking to voluntarily deregister the Guelph constituency association, along with Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Carleton, Cambridge and Oxford.

In an emailed response for comment from the Mercury Tribune, Elections Ontario said it was "not able to comment on ongoing registration or de-registration processes."

However, according to Elections Ontario's website, a number of candidates who had been looking to run for the Alliance in the aforementioned ridings are now registered as independents for next month's election.

Mooney says he had problems with the party leading up to the move to dissolve the Guelph riding association.

“I ended up filing a complaint with Elections Ontario because I was getting no co-operation from the chief financial officer, which was affecting my campaign,” he said, referring to Naranowicz.

“They’re supposed to be providing me the list of all the members that have signed up. Nothing, I received nothing.”

Mooney also says that, leading up to the dissolving of the riding associations, the party executive went radio silent, and he was unable to get a hold of anyone.

“They’re not answering the phone, they’re not responding to emails.”

This is not the first time that Mooney has had an issue with a party he was looking to represent. In August 2017, Mooney announced he was dropping out of the nomination race for the PC Party’s Guelph slot, citing his concerns that some candidates were being asked to drop out of the race.

“When other running mates are approached and asked to step down or step aside, and I see them as good candidates … I got into this political race because I believe something needs to be done, somebody strong,” Mooney told the Mercury Tribune at the time.

“There were some good candidates that were in Guelph that had put their names forward and the party is asking them to step aside. In my belief, that’s not for them to decide, that’s for the people in Guelph to be able to decide who’s going to be representing them.”

At the time, Mooney said he was looking at still running in the election, and would later decide to run for the upstart Ontario Alliance Party, formed last year.

The Alliance was founded by Jay Tysick, a candidate in the Carleton riding who says he was kicked out of the running by Patrick Brown, the leader of the PC Party at the time, after pointing out “shady business” in his local riding nomination.

After he went public with what happened, Tysick says he was contacted by PCs from across the province with reports of rigged nominations and resignations.

“I realized this was not just a local thing. I had become a lightning rod,” he told YorkRegion.com last year.

Tysick decided they should band together and fight back with a party of their own.

“If [Brown] is not going to address these very serious problems, if they’re already lying, cheating, corrupt, what will they do when they’re in government?”

For Mooney, the move to the Alliance was a chance to have someone handle the back end of things while he was out hitting the pavement.

“To me, being part of the Alliance was, quite literally, them looking after the background management of things while I was free to actually be here to represent,” he said.

“And that’s one of the benefits of being part of a party, so I can focus where I need to be focusing.”
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https://www.guelphmercury.com/news-...cial-candidate-now-running-as-an-independent/

Why can't the reactionaries just get along and play nicely? 'Back to Backstabbing'....the new reveal all self-help book coming to a right leaning book-stand near you...
 
Jasmine18 said:
This story has legs but it has zero benefits to the liberals but to the NDP instead.
As all the media focus is what the NDP is saying...its like Wynne has ceased to be relevant.

Also The riding in question is already controlled by the NDP and with No PC candidate there, it pretty much means one less seat the liberals can pick up.

I actually live in this riding and the NDP are running a very strong grassroots campaign here and will be voting for them.
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I find it interesting that the Liberal's shift to the left might cost them since their political stance is largely indistinguishable from NDP- people can look at both parties and say- "Both parties' platforms have similar planks, but one of them doesn't have a track record of sleeze and corruption- I might choose that instead."

Edit- another NDP-boosting column from the Star that backs that up:

For Ontario voters, Andrea Horwath may be ‘just right’
Horwath also stands to benefit from the key policy areas where Liberal and NDP ideology either intersect or align: free child care, the $15 minimum wage and pharmacare are all mainstays of the traditional NDP liturgy now embraced by the Liberals.

Put another way, she will give you benefits of popular Liberal policies without actually having to vote Liberal. And so, with relatively little difference between party platforms, party leadership becomes critical.
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https://www.thestar.com/opinion/sta...-voters-andrea-horwath-may-be-just-right.html



Also interesting- another instance of privatization under the Liberals:

Ontario gets taken to the cleaners in casino deal
In January, 2018, the Ontario Gaming GTA LP, a partnership between the Great Canadian Gaming Corporation and Brookfield Business Partners, completed the purchase of a bundle of casino operations from the Ontario Lottery & Gaming Corporation, including Casino Woodbine, Casino Ajax and Great Blue Heron Casino. The deal is part of the OLG’s sale of almost half of its casinos and slots over the last three years.
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On May 9, it was disclosed that the OGGTA purchased the bundle for $158-million, which is less than one times the annualized earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of the bundle, based on first-quarter results. That’s an acquisition multiple much lower than many expected. Reminiscent of the privatization of Highway 407, the sale involves a massive transfer of wealth from the Government of Ontario, and ultimately all Ontarians, to the private sector. This is yet another example of the government’s inability to receive maximum value for its assets, limiting its capacity to service its soaring debt and pay for essential social services.
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The core problem with the sale is that the Great Canadian-Brookfield partnership purchased the casino bundle for approximately one times EBITDA – a paltry amount. The casinos that were sold were performing well, profitably generating a gross gaming revenue of more than $1-billion in 2016. As Great Canadian’s management put it, the casinos “were already producing some pretty exceptional results.” Clearly the final sale price does not reflect the strength of the bundle.
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Furthermore, the sale price does not adequately reflect the fact that the deal grants the OGGTA at least two decades of exclusive rights to operate these casinos in the GTA, one of the fastest-growing cities in North America. Nor does it reflect the provisions that give the gaming partnership the opportunity to redevelop and massively expand the Woodbine and Ajax sites, further increasing the bundle’s earning potential.
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The bundle should have been sold at a multiple far in excess of one times EBITDA. In North America, casino and gaming assets trade publicly for an enterprise value of eight to 13 times EBITDA. Within two days of Great Canadian’s financial disclosures of the deal’s terms its stock price jumped by 36 per cent, adding some $840-million of market value to the company, which one could argue implicitly values the acquired bundle at $1.7-billion, or an enterprise value of eight times EBITDA. Since the OLG only received $158-million for the bundle, it suggests that the government has left as much as a staggering $1.5-billion on the table.
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https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ontario-gets-taken-to-the-cleaners-in-casino-deal/
 
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Another poll- we are hopefully headed for minority government territory. Bad timing for the PCs to have their dirty laundry aired at this point (though this is more the fault of the PC leadership for not cleaning house properly)- and Ontarians seem deadset for change (which is a good thing).

Entering the long weekend, the PC lead evaporates as NDP momentum builds.

Interest in the election continues to increase. 73% of Ontarians are following the election very closely or somewhat closely, 6 points higher than in two weeks ago.
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The PCs and NDP are now neck and neck: PC 35, NDP 34, Liberal 24. When asked how they would vote, among decided voters, the PCs would get 35% (unchanged) with NDP up 5 to 34% and the Liberals down 5 to 24%. The Greens get 5%. This is the second wave in a row that NDP share among decided voters has grown. Since early April, NDP support has increased 10 points.
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Also important to note is that the desire for change within the electorate has not dissipated at all. Nothing the Liberal campaign has done to this point has softened the desire for a change in government. In fact, today 83% of Ontarians want change, 62% intensively, up 3 since the last survey. Ms. Wynne is campaigning for re-election in an incredibly challenging environment for an incumbent.
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The NDP has momentum now but the Tories still have structural advantages in the electorate that make them the favourites.
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http://onpulse.ca/blog/entering-the-long-weekend-the-pc-lead-evaporates-as-ndp-momentum-builds
 
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The Liberals still seem very centre to me. They are certainly left on social issues, but their use of P3s and the sale of Hydro One are essentially the opposite.

This is Howarth's best chance to win, she had better not screw up.
 
jje1000 said:
Ontario gets taken to the cleaners in casino deal

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ontario-gets-taken-to-the-cleaners-in-casino-deal/
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This, to me, typifies the issues for the Wynne Liberals that some don't get.

I've indicated I've been broadly pleased by their policy turn of the last 18 months or so.

But repeatedly, on privatizations, they appear to have proceeded w/deals that to most Ontarians are neither broadly supported, nor good public policy.

While none of these deals can, based on current evidence be termed 'corrupt'; it does require you to accept a level of almost incomprehensible incompetence to imagine
such a bad deal (Casino) being accepted on an above board basis.

Likewise, the Hydro One move was, at best, a sell-the-furniture to keep the lights on type of move; at worst, it was something else.

I don't want to overstate 'corruption' as an issue is so far as:

a) Most/all parties will have one or more overt scandals during time in office.
b) Incompetence is a more common issue than corruption in Ontario politics
c) Lots of people in the Liberal ranks are in politics for all the right reasons, including many of the cabinet.

Regardless, there is this collection of moves, a small, but expensive number that just make the hairs on the back of your neck stand up, and that's if you broadly support the government and its current policy thrust.

For those less enthusiastic.......The Liberals appear to be looking up at the bus from the underside.
 
jje1000 said:
I find it interesting that the Liberal's shift to the left might cost them since their political stance is largely indistinguishable from NDP- people can look at both parties and say- "Both parties' platforms have similar planks, but one of them doesn't have a track record of sleeze and corruption- I might choose that instead."
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I'm really swimming against the flow on this one, and in all fairness, the Dippers had no idea of the events to unfold in the last few weeks, but I think Horwath actually had it right last election, it was just before its time. The Dippers could be the Sensible Centrists, perhaps merge with the Greens, and let the Libs hang themselves trying too hard by veering off the left shoulder in panic. (Edit: I have a dream, perhaps idyllic, of Ontario once again embracing sensible centrist parties like we had in...you're going to have to forgive me..."the old days"...when voting Conservative was safe, sensible and centrist, the same as the Libs, but with emphasis on different ways of getting there. The present OntCons are going to have to have a complete restructuring if anything is left after the oncoming debacle)

syn said:
The Liberals still seem very centre to me.
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I agree with your gist, intrinsically yes, but they've violated their own principles with the 'sales job'. In all fairness, so have the other two. I can't believe most of what any of them claim as to fiscal reality, let alone the wisdom of the promises even in abstract.

syn said:
They are certainly left on social issues, but their use of P3s and the sale of Hydro One are essentially the opposite.
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It's time for Ontarians to realize that if they wish to avoid "P3s" (and I differ with the Greens on this), then they're living in denial of reality. Unless they want their taxes to double. P3 *done right* has transformed many other nations with a higher standard of living and a higher GDP per capita than ours. Hydro One is gone. What none of the three are being honest about is that the *regulatory regime* is still completely public domain.(edit: With some accountability issues, a whole other discussion) Hydro is mostly a chimera. Yes, it needs some improvement, not least the closing of nuclear plants, and that's purely on rational and fiscally proven principles. I'm sanguine on nuclear, it has applications unmatched in certain situations, but not as we've been using it as a public utility.

syn said:
This is Howarth's best chance to win, she had better not screw up.
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Agreed on that.
Northern Light said:
b) Incompetence is a more common issue than corruption in Ontario politics
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Agreed. In spades. I can't think of anything more botched than the transit file. And I hold even Toronto's gross transit shortcomings to the Provincial level, the Municipal Act and derivatives (Toronto Act, etc) are generations out of date.

As much as governance reform is difficult in this nation (the loosest federation in the developed world, save for maybe Switzerland, which has unique societal characteristics that make direct governance by plebiscite work, and work well), we can't progress as a nation, as a province, as a "world class city" until a lot of statute is changed. And until that time, 'incompetence' is actually encouraged.

No matter what I add to that, it can't undo the masses looking to vote against something, not for it.
 
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