2014 Municipal Election: Toronto Mayoral Race

[John_Dee]

Tory's the closest thing we're liable to get these days to an old-fashioned red tory, a species that's otherwise pretty much extinct. Speaking in practical terms, he's basically a centrist, albeit a right-of-centre one. And obviously, he'd be miles better than Mayor Circus Clown. (Which ain't saying much; a turd on a string would be a better Mayor than Rofo.)

I can't really say I care much for Tory, though. Warren Kinsella may be a jerk at times, but he's not stupid, and the series of posts he came out with a few months back, in which he accurately compared Tory to a preening and politically tone-deaf Thurston Howel the Third, were pretty spot-on, IMO. He was also right to point out that Tory was enthusiastically (and unapologetically) pro-Ford when that was a convenient stance for him to take. That's hard to forgive, though I'd be willing to do so if JT had actually taken the fight to the Fords in a major way. But like Soks and Chow and, well, everyone, he's bizarrely shirking his duty in that regard.

Let's not mince words: This is an anti-incumbent election, which, by its very nature, requires the competing candidates to actually, y'know, take the battle to the person currently holding office. And every single one of them appears to be reluctant to stutter so much as a peep of criticism against Ford. That's unforgivable. They all appear to be waiting for others to do the heavy lifting. Which is surreal. If they didn't want to get their hands dirty, then they had no business inserting themselves into this election.

 

[christiesplits]

Olivia's campaign

I highly doubt Olivia Chow would bow out. I reckon her floor of support is 15% - a little higher than what card-carrying NDPer Joe Pantalone won in 2010. Dyed in the wool dippers will not vote for a former Ontario PC leader and Mike Harris advisor.

For the Chow campaign, they need to treat October 1 as election day. At that point, whoever is the most likely to defeat Ford - Tory or Chow - will be the annointed "anti-Ford" candidate and swallow the majority of votes from the weaker second place candidate. I wouldn't quite anoint Tory yet. He has self-sabotaged his almost-certain political victories twice now. Both Chow and Tory still have a lot of money in their coffers and a key endorsement, TV ad or social media campaign could shift momentum. In my estimation Chow probably has more volunteers and feet on the ground than Tory.

Still, even as a supporter, I must admit Olivia's campaign has been very disappointing. She has been light on policy and overshadowed by Tory on the public transit and accountability narrative. Olivia's Achilles heel has always been her stubborn loyalty to her inner circle. This has been observed in her anointing of political predecessors - Helen Kennedy in 2006, and Joe Cressy in 2014, to disastrous results - and her dependency on NDP Hill staff to run her mayoral campaign, like Nathan Rotman and Jamey Heath, two of Jack Layton's closest confidants.

 

[Greg Banks]

Basically. We need to do better Greg. What do you think happens if Ford gets back in.

December 1 rolls around R Ford regains all his powers....
First appoint a Deputy so unpalatable there would be no thought of a Filion/Ainslie gambit (someone like Crisanti, Moeser if he runs Perruzza or Cho)
Second appoint Councillors as Chairs to Standing Committees that are beholden to you for their election ( Crisanti, Cusimano, Smitherman, Bell, J Papadakis, G Papadakis, Carnevale, West, Di Ciano, Toutchinsky)
Third take on all seats by right of office...if necessary designate a loyalist on a meeting by meeting adhoc basis
Stack the Striking Committee
Stack the Civic Appointments Committee
Do not appoint a speaker chair all Council meetings however appoint two deputy speakers....
And then let the fun and games begin on December 2.....

 

[Silence&Motion]

If Olivia Chow was smart, she should drop out now, save her money, throw her weight behind Tory, and seek a plum position in his administration.

HA! Olivia Chow should become a Tory staffer? Why on earth would either of them want that?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

If Olivia Chow was smart, she should drop out now, save her money, throw her weight behind Tory, and seek a plum position in his administration.

Woah, let's not get ahead of oursleves.

There are still two whole months in the campaign. To put that in perspective, in the past two months we've seen Chow go from a decisive lead to falling to third.

Furthermore, the campaigns really haven't ramped up yet. People haven't begun to pay attention and the campaigns haven't spent much of their money . Most of the action will happen after Labour Day.

And don't forget that in Miller's campaign he didn't start to lead until just before the election.

Chow's chances of winning are as good as anyone else's. It would be foolish to count anyone out. Anything could happen in the next 8 weeks.

 

[junior43]

Woah, let's not get ahead of oursleves.

There are still two whole months in the campaign. To put that in perspective, in the past two months we've seen Chow go from a decisive lead to falling to third.

Furthermore, the campaigns really haven't ramped up yet. People haven't begun to pay attention and the campaigns haven't spent much of their money . Most of the action will happen after Labour Day.

And don't forget that in Miller's campaign he didn't start to lead until just before the election.

Chow's chances of winning are as good as anyone else's. It would be foolish to count anyone out. Anything could happen in the next 8 weeks.

Totally agree - and Chow should never bow out - she's basically the flag bearer for the Left (Tory on the right for the sane people)

 

[CN Tower]

HA! Olivia Chow should become a Tory staffer? Why on earth would either of them want that?

For Chow it would be a final blow to topple the giant stay puff marshmallow man once and for all. If she cares about Toronto, and not just winning an election, it's a noble move.

For Tory the support would put him solidly in the lead and Chow could probably add a strong voice to his administration.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

December 1 rolls around R Ford regains all his powers....
First appoint a Deputy so unpalatable there would be no thought of a Filion/Ainslie gambit (someone like Crisanti, Moeser if he runs Perruzza or Cho)
Second appoint Councillors as Chairs to Standing Committees that are beholden to you for their election ( Crisanti, Cusimano, Smitherman, Bell, J Papadakis, G Papadakis, Carnevale, West, Di Ciano, Toutchinsky)
Third take on all seats by right of office...if necessary designate a loyalist on a meeting by meeting adhoc basis
Stack the Striking Committee
Stack the Civic Appointments Committee
Do not appoint a speaker chair all Council meetings however appoint two deputy speakers....
And then let the fun and games begin on December 2.....

Straight up rule by fiat eh. You think he will force augimeri to pay?

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Except that his appointments need to be confirmed by council - ruling by fiat might not work that well, especially if you max out at 30% of the popular vote and get through by a vote-split.

AoD

 

[Greg Banks]

Except that his appointments need to be confirmed by council - ruling by fiat might not work that well, especially if you max out at 30% of the popular vote and get through by a vote-split.

AoD

No, that limitation ends November 30....as December 1 he would have his Chapter 27-40 powers back.....

 

[Greg Banks]

Straight up rule by fiat eh. You think will force augimeri to pay?

Augimeri is not going to be there.... it will be Danny Q if Ward 9 voters want to start anew or they will hold their collective noses and elect Cusimano

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Except that his appointments need to be confirmed by council - ruling by fiat might not work that well, especially if you max out at 30% of the popular vote and get through by a vote-split.

AoD

True

I can easily see revenge and payback, in whatever form the brothers can create, playing a powerful role in any second Ford term...

I think the female councillors not named Bernadetti will be hit hard imo.

Augimeri is not going to be there.... it will be Danny Q if Ward 9 voters want to start anew or they will hold their collective noses and elect Cusimano

You think so? Will his name carry gus. Danny Q, does he have name recognition? A lot of voters just voter for the incumbent.

 

[King of Kensington]

Just got this in my inbox. It isn't a good thing when your campaign director has to put a letter like this to assuage fears about bad polling numbers.

I woke up this morning to some unfortunate news in the paper. On days like today, campaigns can say they don’t comment on polls, or they can say something about the poll.

I work in polling, so am going to say something about the poll.

There’s been volatility in recent polls this summer. Summer polls are usually more volatile, and this one certainly was. Done over two nights, it had an eight-point difference in Olivia’s support. It also had an eight-point difference in Rob Ford’s support. That’s well outside any margin of error.

But the larger issue is the unusual nature of this election. Ford took two months off campaigning. John Tory reversed himself completely on his former top priority during that time. Then summer began.

Next week, the real campaign begins. We look forward to it, and look forward to underlining the progressive proposals Olivia has made. And look forward to being the campaign saying we need to invest right now, if we’re going to make progress now.

Because let’s be clear. Ford and Tory are not progressive. Olivia is.

She’s also a fighter, and has been her whole career. That’s good because as Labour Day arrives, Olivia is an underdog, just as she’s been her whole career. It hasn’t stopped her winning eight elections and won’t stop her winning this one.

The important thing is what she’s done after winning those elections. She started after-school recreation programs for kids and she’d expand them as mayor.

After amalgamation, many people wanted to lower standards to the lowest level. Olivia said no, and fought to extend low-income seniors’ and children’s dental care outside the old city of Toronto. It’s in place today, city-wide.

And she brought nutritious food for children into schools, which makes a difference every day.

Next week, the real campaign begins, and I look forward to managing a campaign that says we need to invest now. Like in buses, creating jobs for young people and expanding the children’s programs Olivia helped start.

Other candidates say no. We’re going to say yes.

John Laschinger
Olivia’s campaign director

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

No offense to her campaign, was the last few months of her work not "real" enough? It's rather weak - she should just pack up and spare the city the risk of a RoFo rerun at this point.

AoD

 

[PinkLucy]

I hope she comes up with something more substantive soon. True, the "real" campaigning is just getting started, but she has to come out swinging if she wants to have a chance. She has been underwhelming so far. I get the impression that her heart isn't in it.

They also need to stop sending do many emails. I unsubscribed because I was constantly being asked for things.